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Exchequer

NRO’s eye on debt and deficits . . . by Kevin D. Williamson.


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The Burden

There are about 12.4 million local-government employees in these United States, with a monthly payroll of about $51 billion. There are about 4.4 million state-government employees, with a monthly payroll of about $19.4 billion. And there are about 3 million federal employees, with a monthly payroll of about $15 billion. (For detailed figures, the Census: The federal numbers are from 2009; it’s worse now.)

More than 50 million Americans are on Medicaid. More than 100 million Americans receive health-care benefits at public expense, either through entitlement programs such as Medicaid and Medicare or through benefit programs for government employees.

So that’s a public sector of about 20 million government employees administering a welfare state with at least 100 million clients (and here I’m just combining Social Security and Medicaid, to avoid double-counting). Another way to say that is that 40 percent of the U.S. population is living at the expense of the other 60 percent (and it probably is more like half and half). More than a third of working-age U.S. adults are unemployed, and the central government is the largest employer. Economically speaking, we’re a fighter with one hand tied behind his back.

I recently spoke with a charming young woman who is a Ron Paul supporter. She said Representative Paul’s ideas have “universal appeal.” I asked her why, if his appeal is universal, he is so unpopular. She responded: He hasn’t had a fair chance to get his message out. Earlier this week, I spoke with a charming older gentleman, who is a former member of Congress. He said the solutions to our national fiscal problems are obvious. I asked him why, if the solutions are obvious, implementing them is so unpopular. He said it was a question of educating the American people. Both of these explanations are preposterous.

The American people are excruciatingly well educated about the relevant fact: the checks hitting their bank accounts, monthly or fortnightly. They will not be educated out of them. A generation ago, they might have been shamed out of it, but shame is now impotent. They will not willingly give up those checks, and there will always be a Barack Obama out there to profit by pretending that pillaging half of the country to bribe the other is a kind of moral crusade, rather than a lightly disguised form of armed robbery. Bear in mind that most of this money does not go to help the poor: This is not a country in which 40 percent of the people are poor. Government workers are routinely overcompensated, often lavishly so. This is not government inefficiency; this is corruption, on a scale that is vast and grotesque.

Pres. Ronald Reagan was fond of citing this passage, misattributed to Alexander Fraser Tytler, Lord Woodhouselee:  “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only last until the citizens discover they can vote themselves largesse out of the public treasury. After that, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that the democracy always collapses over a loose fiscal policy, to be followed by a dictatorship, and then a monarchy.” And here we are, at the inflection point — not at the brink of becoming undemocratic, but at the brink of becoming a deeply dysfunctional democracy with a loose fiscal policy indeed.

Some 35 cents out of every dollar in take-home pay in this country comes in the form of a welfare benefit, and about 10 percent in the form of government salaries: The total burden is about 45 percent of personal income. I propose we make that a standard metric for judging the seriousness of small-government programs: Reduce that burden, and you’ll have done something worthwhile.

—  Kevin D. Williamson is a deputy managing editor of National Review and author of The Politically Incorrect Guide to Socialism, published by Regnery. You can buy an autographed copy through National Review Online here.

Tags: Fiscal Armageddon, General Shenanigans

New on Exchequer. . .


COMMENTS   54

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   08/22/11 05:08

While I do appreciate your knowledge of fiscal affairs, I think you are laying the ideology down a little thick here.

Why do employers hire people? Why do customers buy products? Answer: In both cases, they are getting a sort of consumer surplus. There would be no reason to engage in a voluntary economic transaction unless there was some such benefit.

To act as though approximately 50% of the population consists of some sort of social parasites is to ignore the fact that these people provide a lot of benefits in terms of consumer surplus to society that they simply are not able to extract in terms of wages or profits. To assume that just because someone can't afford healthcare, they haven't contributed enough to actually deserve healthcare is assuming something that is probably false. Maybe they have contributed a lot, but they have no special skills. Maybe they do not have the personality to negotiate higher wages. Maybe even if they have the skills and work hard, they just don't have the "go getter" personality that is required to get a bigger piece of the pie.

Also, keep in mind that property itself, the mechanism by which so many opportunities are allocated, is a sort of tax on the have-nots. But for the social contract, the have-nots have equal right to all the good opportunities provided by the earth for survival. Well, the truth is, we restrict access to these opportunities and call it "private property" (or even "public property" where your rights to use the thing in question for personal survival and well-being is limited). How is that anything other than a severe tax? Naturally, absent civilization, people have the right to fight for survival and their own well-being, even at the expense of other people, do they not? By entering civilization, we have severely limited our natural right to exploit both natural resources and each other without restraint.

The bottom-line, is that the trade-off for having a property system which is (and must be) enforced through coercion is a social contract that has to work for everyone and which is financed through taxation of property. (And if I wanted to get dramatic about it like you are, property itself could be said to be a sort of theft; a theft of the crucial opportunity to have an equal opportunity to use the resources that exist on this earth.) Without calling it theft, I would assert that the existence of property itself really is a sort of tax. That people who have copious amounts of property then are called to pay higher nominal taxes does not necessarily mean that they are actually getting the short-end of the stick when it comes to the social contract. After all, they are the beneficiaries of the biggest tax of them all, namely the establishment of private property itself. Indeed, I think most people would much rather have a lot of property and pay a lot of nominal taxes than have very little property and pay very little nominal taxes. No one really wants to pay the biggest tax of them all, namely having little or no access to property, and thus being rendered dependent on others for survival.

Justice Oliver Wendall Holmes perhaps said it best:

"Taxes are the price we pay for a civilized society."

If you have practical concerns about the sustainability of our system due to the incentives that are created, I am all ears. If you want to cry about how taxation is theft, you are going to have to find someone else's shoulders to cry on. I am sorry. You have voluntarily chosen to remain a member in good standing of this civilization. This civilization is meant to benefit everyone, including those without property. Our civilization must be paid for by taxes, which in turn must come from property. Perhaps you can comfort yourself with the thought that the system of private property itself is probably the biggest tax of them all. Maybe if you think about it this way, you can shed fewer tears for those who are the beneficiaries of the biggest tax of them all.

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   08/22/11 10:29

Ignoring for the sake of brevity your purely ideological musings on private property as a "sort of tax," I have a simple question: Is it possible for taxes in a "civilized society" to be too high and/or the burden of government upon the taxpayers too great?

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Hmastercylinder
   08/22/11 13:46

This is the longest stream of pure excrement I've ever heard. Please tell me what you do, so I don't ever unknowingly put myself in your hands. Such a pile of misinformation leading to preposterous conclusions as I can not easily recall. "Consumer surplus"? You're kidding, right?
"Why do employers hire people? Why do customers buy products? Answer: In both cases, they are getting a sort of consumer surplus. There would be no reason to engage in a voluntary economic transaction unless there was some such benefit."
I am growing exhausted telling people how the real world works. There are volutary transactions because it is more efficient for me to make what I make, and buy my string beans from others who do that better, instead of wasting my time trying to grow string beans. Only a class warfare indoctrinated leech would think that only greed makes the world go 'round. There is some greed in all humanity, but someone who gets something for nothing is far greedier than someone who gets a little more for his efforts besides his costs. I would hate to have you, as an employer or employee, with that attitude, alas, so common on the pampered left.
Perhaps those aliens in the Penn State study are here to take you home.
Bon Voyage!

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   08/23/11 11:22

Despite the rudeness with which you have expressed your views, it should be pointed out that you actually aren't saying anything different than I am when it comes to the economic concept of consumer surplus. Saying that engaging in a transaction is "more efficient" than not engaging in it is just another way to say that the reason people engage in transactions is because they get "consumer surplus" from them. Doing something in a more efficient way is a gain, and in this case the technical terms that economics use for that gain is "consumer surplus." Read an economics 101 textbook.

You should probably calm down. There is little reason for rudeness.

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Bill Wilde
   08/23/11 13:50

David Welker. Your absolutely right. About the rudeness. People who feel obliged to express themselves in such a fashion invariably have nothing of value to add to any discussion. Cordially , Bill

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Dino Parks
   08/22/11 08:43

I believe you are a magician, for you deceive on one hand while condemning with the other. To wit:
1) You lead with Medicaid, but lump in Medicare to inflate the number of "welfare" recipients to over 100 million. Medicare is more accurately a government sponsored insurance program, paid for by all recipients during the entirety of their working lives and drawn upon only in their retired years, if they live that long.
2) Then you complain that we aren't only giving welfare to poor people, because we don't have 100 million poor. You're right. Only people on Medicaid are poor. Yes, 50 million by your accounting. So it seems that 250 million are supporting 50 million, by providing them with health care. Not housing or food or clothing or access to a college education, but medical care. And a rather low level of care, if you'd care to check.
3) Your link to the 35% of salaries being "welfare" benefits includes all of Social Security and Medicare. Really your complaint is with these programs, but you hide it in a diatribe implying parasitism of the American public. SS and Medicare have always been fully funded by payroll contributions and are essentially a forced savings program (clearly with a forward-payout, which allowed the generation who retired in the 40's to benefit without a lifetime of payment; all of us have paid our entire lives). The proof that this is not welfare is that if an individual hasn't paid SS tax, he or she doesn't receive SS.

Perhaps you are lost in your emotion over what you perceive as unfair, and have gotten so excited that you are painting with a broad brush. Please take the time to consider why you hate Social Security, and explain to us why our country would be better off without it.

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blar
   08/22/11 12:10

"SS and Medicare have always been fully funded by payroll contributions and are essentially a forced savings program."

In theory yes, but the Social Security fund has been thoroughly raided to pay for spending not related to SS for years. I thought this idea had been widely debunked since Al Gore talked of "lockboxes."

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   08/22/11 12:55

Social Security and Medicare are welfare programs, albeit welfare programs disguised as a pension and an insurance scheme. People would retire wealthier and more secure if they were able to invest the money we force into Social Security.

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   08/22/11 13:21

Kevin, it is the disguise of the Ponzi scheme that is so insidious. Like Madoff investors, we delude ourselves that OUR SSI and Medicare benefits are legitimate, while ignoring the growing pyramid of suckers below.

* Many long-lived seniors -- 75-80 year olds -- don't remember that their FICA rates were at job force entry (mid-60s) were about half what they are now.

* Wage caps have risen 30x since 1950, which cost of living has risen roughly 10x.

* Wage caps are gone for the health care part of FICA.

* Most people have no idea their employer "matches" the tax (start a business, though and you'll see the entire 15+%).

Insurers that ran such a scheme would be perp walked into courthouses from coast to coast. If we continue to pretend that these programs aren't unsustainable scams, we should expect such treatment from our children.

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   08/22/11 13:22

Not that you don't know that, of course!

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Dino Parks
   08/22/11 16:32

"People would retire wealthier and more secure if they were able to invest the money we force into Social Security."

You are right, with a caveat: only some of the people would invest wisely. Some would invest poorly, and many would spend the money in their youth (or middle age) and have little left at retirement. So we have collectively required everyone to contribute to a payroll tax, which as your readers point out, is matched by employers. I understand that this match (and the tax itself) cuts into either wages or profits, or raises the cost of the goods provided. It's just that many of us believe that this is a relatively small price to pay to ensure some measure of economic security for most Americans.
Yes, the trust fund is running out of money and we have delayed reform repeatedly. But reform could save it; or you could have your way and we could kill it.
I don't expect to change your mind, or your readers' opinions. But I will explain why I'm on this side.
There are many reasons for social welfare programs. Here are 3:
1) Compassion. Accepting the simple truth that some of us are more fortunate than others, and having compassion for the unfortunate, is a valuable act. Yes, I can hear the blame assigned to defrauders and drug addicts, and it's true. But that is not the majority of those who need help. Some people were not as lucky as us, with intelligence, character, or opportunity.
2) Economic mobility in America. When you are middle class, you think social mobility means you can become rich. This is possible in our country, and many find wealth. But when you are born into poverty, economic mobility means something else: being the first in your family to go to college, to get a job that isn't back-breaking, to own a home, to have enough money to pay for your kids to buy uniforms and play Little League baseball. These are dreams for a large underclass in America. And having a "safety net" that keeps a family from losing everything, including their sanity, and their dignity, is a backstop against disaster. The ability we have as a society to drop a ladder into the murky waters of poverty and let people climb out of it is a wonderful and remarkable thing, and the histories of millions of successful American families include getting a little help along the way to prosperity and happiness.
3) The most dangerous creation of any society is that man who has nothing to lose. When you allow thousands, millions of people to be born into a culture that doesn't possess the skills to function in our economy, with parents who are struggling and lack the ability to train their children to compete with those ahead of them, you create an environment where most of those people are going to lose. They will be losers - desperate, confused, and angry. And they will strike out, doing violence on whatever they see, and that violence will only make things worse: crime, injury, destruction, despair. This helps no one.

I don't ask much; I certainly don't want to tax away initiative and ambition. I believe this is the most creative nation and culture on the planet, and that is a trait to protect and encourage. I just ask for some respect for the position that collectively helping each other does not necessarily define those who get help as babies, worthy of the scorn of those who make more money than them.

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   08/22/11 19:00

It's not compassion when you're using somebody else's money.

I'm curious as to how you came to the conclusion that this is a "small price to pay," since I'm sure that you do not know what the price in fact is. How did you figure up all of the forgone returns to investment, the effects of increased real private savings, etc?

Surely you're not just making it up as you go along?

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Dino Parks
   08/22/11 20:44

That last sentence strikes me as sly. I know you will play to win; I'm on your turf. No, I'm not making it up at all, it's just a matter of perspective. What you see depends very much on what you look for.

You want to put economics first; we can have that discussion. I would say that no one can precisely calculate the foregone returns on the money given up to a tax, nor the effects of increased savings. (Economics - perhaps it is the dismal science because we can never agree?) But I do agree with you that the effects exist, they have significant value, and that value is more than monetary. I do not have disdain for wealth, or for the liberty we afford capital. We as a people have prospered because of our creative use of money.
But I would also call your attention to the effects where the tax dollars are spent. The Social Security recipient likely doesn't hoard his check - he spends it in his community, or at the pharmacy, or at the very least he gives it to a bank, so that they can lend it out to more enterprising individuals. The dollar doesn't disappear. I imagine you would argue some of it is "wasted" by the scoundrels who work for the government - perhaps you even have a figure of how much of every dollar is spent on administration - but those scoundrels don't hoard it either. They make car payments and tuition payments and a few of them make house payments.
Now perhaps will you say I am naive? Can you make the economic case for one dollar in the hand of the taxpayer somehow being better for us ( I mean all us other taxpayers ) than one dollar in the hand of the retiree? Because this is really the heart of the matter.

I define it as "a small price to pay" because it is not large enough to be punitive to the workers (of which I am one), but it is a significant benefit to the retirees, and in some cases is a lifeline. And because I believe that SS recipients did their part by contributing throughout their working lives to another generation of Americans.

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Dino Parks
   08/22/11 21:43

re the previous reply:
I believe I wrote "punitive." I meant "onerous." Just to be clear....

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   08/23/11 11:49

Someone else's money?

Did these people invent the concept of money itself? Ridiculous. Money itself is a social construct.

Civilization is a cooperative endeavor Mr. Williamson.

Let me repeat that. Civilization is a cooperative endeavor.

The question is not who "owns" what stuff. There is more to life than property. Property is a means, not an end. The only proper end is the well-being of people themselves. Everything else, including the social concept of property, is a means to that end. The question is how well does our civilization promote human flourishing overall.

It seems to me, that you are on the verge of arguing that society should protect private property even if doing so is harmful to society overall. As if private property is its own end. But since the concept of private property was invented to benefit society, that would be putting the cart before the horse.

You must pay taxes to contribute to our civilization. That is, you give up property that you would otherwise possess in the absence of taxation in order to protect the very civilization the established, nourishes, and protects the concept of private property in the first place. And what our civilization does with those contributions is not a decision that is yours alone. If we in our civilization wants to do more than protect citizens from theft, it is our collective right to do so.

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   08/23/11 16:13

DW - I am curious, how does one define human flourishing?

Is it like Greece or England of recent days? Both of these states are adept at using taxation, especially property taxation, to enable and promote a definition of human flourishing, probably similar to yours(I could be wrong). You know the results.

Overall, I think problems arise when taxation levels grow to the point that the taxpayer merely transfers most or all of his wealth to the state. At that point, the taxpayer, the citizen, is a servant of that state.

Further, I am unclear on how protecting my private property is harmful to society overall, especially in a society where one can buy private property. If I did not own private property, then does that mean the state owns the property. If so, I am a serf, or in harsher language, a slave like the days of old.

To me, your statements rely on the assumption that government is better at charity than the individual.

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   08/23/11 02:05

Writes Dino:

When you allow thousands, millions of people to be born into a culture that doesn't possess the skills to function in our economy, with parents who are struggling and lack the ability to train their children to compete with those ahead of them, you create an environment where most of those people are going to lose.

This line of thinking infuriates me. How was our current environment created? Just popped up out of nowhere? Everyone is born with zero skills. If parents, teachers, politicians and the general culture taught and encouraged self-reliance more than it attacks it, you wouldn't have to worry as much about people not having the skills to make the best possible choices in their lives. When you teach and encourage the opposite for decades, you end up with millions who can't fend for themselves in any number of ways, and if you start early enough they don't want to change, or if they did, they wouldn't even know how to try or would be too scared because they'd have to overhaul their entire life. You end up where we are now, when, for too many, it's too late to fix anything. If the left were serious about fixing all our problems, they would have fixed them long ago. For some bizarre reason stuff ain't fixed. In fact, with the left at the helm, a lot of stuff has gotten worse. A shocking number of people don't know this, but it's far more insidious when you have people who do know it and don't care. They leave the ignorant in the dark on purpose. That's sick.

The government telling people, "you can't scrape by without my help" is cruelty, not compassion. We've got more than enough evidence, from more than enough places around the globe, for more than enough time to know that whatever the left sinks its claws into it ruins. It does this by oppressive laws, and if that doesn't work it grabs the bullets.

You have no idea how hard it is to suppress the profanity. I don't mean an outburst here or there, I'm talkin an avalanche.

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Dino Parks
   08/23/11 12:51

Colonel,
On a personal level, you bring up a very serious issue: whether people will be complacent if life is made easy for them. At a certain level of comfort, most would - but my experience with the poor is that most of them are unhappy but looking for something better, if they even believe that is possible. And many of them have indeed given up hope.

I appreciate your strong feeling on this; it is worthy of outrage, although we clearly have very different views on the causes of the problems.
I don't know the people you point to who intentionally keep the masses down; I suppose an old-style pol who treats his voters in a condescending way is guilty, using them for his own power. I don't see the rank and file of social workers having that attitude - they want to help and occasionally do, but I imagine they are overwhelmed by the magnitude of the problem.
From my perspective, poverty is an outcome of pure capitalism. Better writers than me have detailed the mechanics; I'l just say that an economic system can continue to function just fine with a large group of impoverished citizens. They provide a large pool of cheap labor and can be left to fend for themselves. and as the saying goes, "Them that got shall get, them that's not shall lose." Our recent acceleration of income inequality to levels not seen since the beginning of the 20th century would bear this out.
You imply that the left is in charge, but another perspective is that the left never succeeded in fundamental change to our economic system; the reforms that happened in the 1930's thru the 1970's have been weakened, dismantled or outrun by the financial sector over the past 30 years. Even Alan Greenspan's contrite testimony before Congress hasn't shaken the conservative belief in the free-market gospel of the Chicago School.

The left did make lasting changes in Europe since WW2. But the current debt crisis there is undeniably attributable to overreach of the financial sector in a loosely regulated environment. Prior to this debacle their social welfare state functioned very well, even faced with cheap foreign labor competition and massive immigration problems (far worse than our own).

Back to your point: Mr. Williamson lumps SS and Medicare recipients in with ALL government jobs (including school teachers and firemen!) to make it look like we live in a nanny state. The numbers of poor who get aid beyond health care are much, much smaller and in my view not a significant drain on my tax dollars. Some of the poor will claw their way out; I believe without public schools, Pell grants, Child Protective services, etc., far fewer would escape to self-responsibility.

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   08/23/11 17:17

I don't know the people you point to who intentionally keep the masses down

Not surprised.

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