Final Countdown 2009 on National Review Online

Thursday, November 05, 2009

From CNN:

He has yet to been sworn in as the 71st governor of Virginia, but the Republican Party appears to have found its newest superstar in Bob McDonnell.

With his resounding win Tuesday in the battleground state of Virginia - a victory that halted a decade of gains for Democrats - top Republicans are boasting that McDonnell has uncovered a winning GOP formula for 2010 and beyond.

The blueprint, his supporters argue, is fairly simple: stay loyal to conservative principles, maintain a personal appeal that connects with voters, and focus like a laser on kitchen table issues.

Throughout the governor's race, Democratic candidate Creigh Deeds flogged McDonnell as a divisive social conservative preoccupied with issues like abortion, same-sex marriage and birth control. But McDonnell beat back those attacks by concentrating on the troubled economy with a simple message: "Bob's for Jobs."

Some Republicans in Washington are already chattering about how McDonnell could boost the 2012 Republican ticket as a vice presidential candidate, a scenario that might put Virginia back in the GOP column after Barack Obama won the state in 2008. Others believe he could be a presidential candidate himself down the road.

McDonnell, who doesn't take office until January, waved off the speculation on Wednesday.

"There's a lot of Kool-Aid in Washington," he joked during a press conference in Richmond. "I'm going to let folks talk about whatever they might want to talk about, but I'm going to be focused on Virginia."

11/05 02:07 PM Share

City Man [Robert Costa]

Republican Chris Christie, New Jersey's governor-elect, is making cities a priority as he prepares to take over in Trenton. The Newark Star-Ledger reports:

Chris Christie chose to make his first appearance as governor-elect in Newark yesterday, which may surprise some of his supporters. After all, it was the overwhelming turnout in suburban counties like Ocean and Monmouth that put Christie over the top.

But the candidate who promised to cut taxes and spending also pledged to make restoring cities the focus of his administration. For those sifting through tea leaves — and worried Christie might be a “tea party” kind of politician — that’s cause for hope.

“For too long in New Jersey, politicians of both parties have ignored our cities,” he said in July. “They’ve allowed them to decay and they’ve allowed the people in those cities to leave to go to other places, to abandon our cities, and they’ve also allowed those who have remained not to have the best quality of life.” He talked about creating urban growth zones with business incentives, better tracking of crime, and a state tax exemption for new residents.

He repeatedly embraced charter schools, specifically holding up Newark’s Robert Treat Academy Charter School as the gold standard for what urban education could be.

And so, as governor-elect, he stood yesterday in the Robert Treat auditorium flanked by school founder and North Ward powerbroker Steve Adubato. With Newark Mayor Cory Booker and Essex County Executive Joe DiVincenzo listening attentively in the audience, it was easy to forget that a Republican had been elected.

11/05 02:01 PM Share

Soul Food [Robert Costa]

Dede Scozzafava opens up about her campaign to WWNY News in New York:

"There were calls going that were calling me a child killer, there were pieces of mail that said I was a homosexual love," Scozzafava said.

The race in New York's 23rd congressional district started out bumpy. A GOP committee selected Scozzafava for the Republican nomination — causing a shake-up when Republican Doug Hoffman left the party to enter the race as a conservative party candidate.But when it became clear that Scozzafava was behind in the polls, she decided to drop out.

Shortly after, she made a big move — endorsing not Hoffman, but Democrat Bill Owens, who went on to win the race.

"That the (Republican National Committee), three hours after I dropped out of the race, had opened their checkbook to the Hoffman campaign, that stung a little bit," Scozzafava said.

After months of criticism from conservatives for her moderate views on issues including gay marriage and abortion, the endorsement brought out what many said were some mean-spirited comments — among them, rough language from Rush Limbaugh.

"If the type of hatred, and the name calling and the lies and innuendo is the soul of our party, all is not well with thy soul," Scozzafava said.

11/05 01:57 PM Share

Ponnuru: The GOP's Challenge [Robert Costa]

NR's Ramesh Ponnuru writing in TIME about Election 2009:

What these races suggest is that Republicans' principal problem in recent elections has not been that they are too far right, or — as a lot of conservatives like to think — not far right enough. After all, voters turned on both moderate and conservative Republicans in the late Bush years. The problem has instead been that voters have not thought Republicans of any stripe had answers to their most pressing concerns. Addressing those concerns, rather than repositioning itself along the ideological spectrum, is the party's main challenge.

More here.

11/05 01:54 PM Share

Indie Dede [Robert Costa]

From the AP:

New York's Independence Party is courting the one-time Republican candidate in the 23rd Congressional District as she completes her state Assembly term.

Independence Chairman Frank MacKay says he will invite Dierdre Scozzafava, a moderate Republican, to carry his party as her main political affiliation.

She suspended her congressional campaign as it was overtaken by Conservative Doug Hoffman. He lost Tuesday to Democrat Bill Owens in the race to represent northern New York.

MacKay tells The Associated Press that Scozzafava appears to be a true independent. She won re-election last year with the Republican, Conservative, Independence and Working Families lines.

Scozzafava didn't immediately respond to a request for comment Wednesday.

11/05 01:51 PM Share

Lamont For Gov? [Robert Costa]

Stephen Spruiell reports.

11/05 01:47 PM Share

VDH On '09 Interpretations [Robert Costa]

From Victor Davis Hanson in The Corner:

In the midst of all the warring interpretations of Tuesday's elections — conservatives see the governors' races, where millions cast their votes in both a blue and purple state, as a repudiation of Obamaism; liberals see the two House races in California and New York as proof that the president has a winning national agenda — all that really matters is the course of the Congress in the next few weeks.

If the conservative interpretation is right, then there will not be enough moderate Democratic votes to pass Obamacare and cap-and-trade — the legislators' fear being that the electorate is now clearly angry and terrified of the drag on the economy of rising trillion-dollar-plus deficits and inept new government spending.

But if the liberal interpretation is correct, then an emboldened Democratic House majority will introduce and pass landmark health-care and cap-and-trade legislation, hoping to show Tuesday's approving voters that Obamaism remains on track and that there are even more good things to come in 2010.
In other words, the private self interest and sense of survival of politicians and their handlers — and their ability to gauge the public mood — are probably more reliable barometers of what the Tuesday elections portended than anything observers publicly proclaim.

So we should learn what the elections meant, if anything, in the next few weeks.

11/05 01:46 PM Share

Rubio Time [Robert Costa]

With Election 2009 over, all eyes turn toward 2010. The Club For Growth is already airing ads against Florida's GOP Gov. Charlie Crist, who is set to run against NR cover alum Marco Rubio in next year's primary for U.S. Senate. Check out the CFG's new video here.

11/05 01:41 PM Share

Wednesday, November 04, 2009

They're Awake [Robert Costa]

From David S. Broder in The Washington Post:

Tuesday's defeats in gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey not only ended a decade or more of Democratic gains in those states but signaled possible trouble ahead in the midterm elections at the national level... Rep. Jim Cooper of Tennessee, a leader of the moderate-conservative "Blue Dogs," called the result "a wake-up call for Congress. A tidal wave could be coming." ...Democratic pollster Peter Hart, in a memo to his clients, warned of the possible consequences of "the disappointment and disgust the American public feels toward Washington. It is as strongly negative as the period of 1979-80 and 1973-74." Both those cycles saw wholesale changes in Congress, the Democrats benefiting in the latter and the Republicans in the former.

11/04 03:24 PM Share

Get Ready [Robert Costa]

From Doug Hoffman's campaign website:

Only 365 Days Until Election Day 2010!

... I urge that no one feel defeated, for this was only one of many elections. We came close, we put our agenda in front of the nation and the nation took notice. The worse thing we could do now, is not continue forward. Next year there are other elections and other candidates who have drawn inspiration from our efforts.

11/04 03:18 PM Share

New York, New York? [Robert Costa]

Via Tweet Tracker:

@PatrickRuffini A Democrat will not have been mayor of NYC from 1993 until at least 2013 despite a gazillion-to-one registration advantage

11/04 03:16 PM Share

Scenes From The Christie Celebration [Robert Costa]

From my new piece on the home page:

Now this was a Jersey party. A Bruce Springsteen cover band blasted riffs by the stage. The open bar was mobbed. Ties were loose, and the Seton Hall College Republicans couldn’t stop dancing. The polls had closed hours before, and the crowd milling by the empty podium in the hotel ballroom was electric. It looked like their man, Republican Chris Christie, would soon be declared the 55th governor of New Jersey. “The numbers I’m seeing, town by town, county by county, are very encouraging,” said state senator Joe Kyrillos, Christie’s campaign chairman, to cheers.

Surveying the scene, and standing on the risers in the back with his hands in his pockets, was Tom Kean Sr., the venerable Republican who served as governor of the Garden State from 1982 to 1990. With crinkled eyes and a wide smile, Kean leaned in and remarked on how “a lot of things have changed in a year.” Oh, how right he was.

Last year, President Obama won New Jersey handily, coasting to a 15-point victory over John McCain. Last night, just before Tuesday turned into Wednesday, Christie, a former federal prosecutor, won a hotly contested gubernatorial race against incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine, a Democrat, by more than 100,000 votes in a heavily Democratic state.

More here.

11/04 03:12 PM Share

Encouraging Results in NYC Suburbs [Fred Schwarz]

As a reader told Kathryn Lopez, Nassau County, a mostly affluent suburb with about 1.3 million residents east of New York City, gave control of its county legislature back to the Republicans in this year’s elections. In the race for county executive, Nassau may have matched Westchester by turning out a longtime Democrat: The incumbent, Tom Suozzi, is leading by 200-odd votes, but a commentator who at least sounds knowledgeable thinks absentee ballots will swing the election to Ed Mangano, the GOP candidate. When Suozzi won election in 2001, he became Nassau’s first Democratic county executive in 30 years.

Like Westchester and many other suburban counties, particularly in the Northeast, Nassau was solidly Republican for decades but lately has been trending the other way. In the 1992 presidential election, it voted Democratic for the first time since 1964; it has gone Democratic for president ever since. When the county legislature was first organized, in 1995, voters elected a 13-6 Republican majority, but when the GOP regime overspent wildly, they kicked them out in 1999, and the Democrats have won every election since — until this year.

As you’d expect from the county’s proximity to New York City, Nassau residents are generally moderate to liberal on social issues, though not in the Van Jones or Anita Dunn category. What they are most passionate about is their pocketbooks. Early on, Suozzi gained a lot of credit for helping the county achieve fiscal stability, but the recent tough economic times have tarnished his reputation. The Republicans’ success in halting the Democratic tide in Nassau suggests a possible way forward in other blue-trending suburbs: Let Obama and Congress keep damaging the Democratic brand, stress financial prudence — and then, unlike too many Republicans in recent decades, actually deliver it.

11/04 01:49 PM Share

Let The Work Begin [Robert Costa]

From the Newark Star-Ledger:

The morning after winning the governor's seat, Chris Christie met with nine staffers and consultants in the atrium of the Hilton Hotel here to discuss his transition and activities throughout the day and tomorrow.

Christie plans to hold a press conference around 1 p.m. at the Robert Treat Academy in Newark after taking a tour of the school.

Also with him this morning, sitting around two small round tables, were Lt. Governor-elect Kim Guadagno, who also is the Monmouth County Sheriff, and Christie's wife, Mary Pat.

"I'm excited for the state of New Jersey," Mary Pat said after the 30-minute meeting.

State Sen. Joe Kyrillos, Christie's campaign chairman, and Bill Palatucci, a veteran GOP strategist and Christie's top adviser, also sat with him, and afterward gave each other hugs and hearty handshakes.

"It was very impromptu," Kyrillos said of the meeting this morning.

11/04 11:34 AM Share

Axelrod's Denial [Robert Costa]

From the Washington Post:

As they woke up this morning on the one-year anniversary of President Obama's historic election, senior West Wing aides proclaimed themselves largely unconcerned about what last night's Democratic losses might portend for their boss or his agenda.

White House officials rejected what they said was over-hyped conclusions about the impact on Obama of losing the governorships in New Jersey and Virginia, and instead sought to focus attention on the Democratic victory in New York's 23rd Congressional District.

"We won a congressional seat that's been in Republican hands since Ulysses S. Grant was president, in part because of the disunity in the Republican Party," senior adviser David Axelrod said in an early-morning phone interview. "That was the only truly national
contest on the ballot."

Axelrod said the intervention of national conservatives in pushing the moderate GOP candidate out of the New York race will be the only lasting impact of the night.

"The most portentous thing that happened yesterday was that the right wing of the Republican Party ran a moderate Republican essentially out of the race, and lost a seat they had held for more than 100 years," he said. "I don't take that as discouragement."

11/04 11:31 AM Share

Rich Lowry On McDonnell's Win [Robert Costa]

Via NRO's "Off The Page" with Will Cain.

11/04 11:27 AM Share

Wehner: Barack's Awful Evening [Robert Costa]

From Pete Wehner, writing at Commentarymagazine.com:

1. The outcome of the New Jersey governor's race and the magnitude of the victory by Bob McDonnell and other Virginia Republicans will have unusually far-reaching ramifications for an off-year election, including on the health-care debate. I have said before that while politicians follow polls carefully, they really follow election results carefully. And the results in New Jersey and Virginia will send a message to many Democrats: Obamaism in general – and ObamaCare in particular – can be hazardous to your political health. That is, I think, the most immediate impact of what happened last night. The results might be leveraged in a way to defeat health-care legislation that helped fuel last night’s anti-Democratic uprising.

It is too much to say that the Virginia and New Jersey races were referendums on President Obama; no statewide race is ever strictly or even primarily a referendum on a national political figure. But because of the economic state of the country, and the scope, reach, and ambition of Obama’s domestic programs, the president was more of a factor than would usually be the case. What we witnessed last night has to be interpreted at least in part as a repudiation of President Obama's policies (the president himself remains fairly popular personally). The efforts by the White House to pretend otherwise are silly. In New Jersey in particular, a full-court press was put on — from repeated Obama visits to the state, to pouring in huge financial resources (Governor-elect Christie was outspent by a margin of around 3-to-1), to a barrage of relentlessly negative attacks by Jon Corzine against Christie. To have done all that and to still have lost New Jersey is quite amazing.

More here.

11/04 11:10 AM Share

The Editorial [Robert Costa]

Today's must-read:

Conservatives scored some impressive victories on Election Day. In Virginia, Robert McDonnell won the governor’s race in a landslide that carried other conservative statewide officeholders and legislative candidates to victory. New Jersey’s Chris Christie won his race by a larger margin than any Republican had mustered since 1985 — and as a candidate significantly to the right of previous Republican governors such as Tom Kean and Christie Todd Whitman. Maine repealed a law that accorded official recognition to same-sex unions as though they were marriages.

The disappointment of the evening came in a special election for Congress in upstate New York, where Conservative-party nominee Doug Hoffman narrowly lost to Democrat Bill Owens. Local GOP party officials bollixed the race from the beginning by picking liberal Dede Scozzafava. With her campaign sinking beneath the waves, she pulled out last weekend and then capped her disastrous foray by endorsing Owens. Hoffman was a much better choice, and demonstrated the passion that is animating the conservative grassroots on fiscal issues. But, a first-time candidate, he lacked polish and a ready knowledge of local issues. If there’s a lesson from the race besides the obvious — don’t let out-of-touch GOP officials pick liberal congressional candidates — it is that conservatives need to run campaigns based not only on their philosophical soundness but on the improved conditions that this soundness can be expected to generate. That was the template for McDonnell’s huge victory. If his governance delivers on his promises, explicit and implicit, he will be a model for Republicans nationwide.

Democrats are taking solace in the banal truth that these elections were not solely referenda on President Obama. The Democratic candidate in Virginia ran a pathetic campaign, and the Democratic governor of New Jersey was a failure. The elections nonetheless offered proof (not that any should have been needed) that Obama cannot transfer his popularity to his allies. They showed that the powerful negative reaction to President Bush may have run its course. And they suggested that important aspects of Obama’s agenda are encountering formidable resistance, not only from the core supporters of the Republican party but also from independent voters. We would not blame the president if he took up smoking again.

11/04 11:07 AM Share

Last Night [Robert Costa]

Was a lot of fun. Thanks to everyone who sent e-mails about their Election Day experiences. You kept us in the loop, and I hope that we did the same for you. More about on my time at Christie HQ to come later.

11/04 11:06 AM Share

Re: PA Supreme Court [Robert Costa]

From a reader:

Small anecdote on the PA Supreme Court: I live in Montgomery County which did not go well for Republicans the last few cycles. There was a very strong circulation of emails among friends and neighbors. My wife and I were included on emails from various sources — parents from our kids school, parents from youth sports team, and neighborhood lists. I would have to say this was the most activity of this sort that we have seen for any election for any office. It was interesting (and refreshing!) to see people openly support an election and not worry about "offending" someone. Glad it worked out!

11/04 11:00 AM Share

Obama In '09: A Web Bulletin [Robert Costa]

From New York magazine below. The guy at the bottom gets it right:

• Chuck Todd and friends write that "last night wasn’t a referendum on Obama," but the Democrats lost independents, and the base is "no longer fired up and ready to go." One interesting tidbit from the exit polls: "51% of yesterday’s voters in Virginia said they voted for McCain, while just 43% said they voted for Obama. Folks, Obama won this state last year by a nearly 53%-46% margin." [First Read/MSNBC]

• Glenn Reynolds believes "the elections underscored Obama’s political weakness just one year after his triumphant victory over Republican moderate John McCain." For members of Congress, "the lesson of this week is that Obama can’t save their seats if the public is unhappy (and, equally, that Obama probably can’t hurt them much, either). So what Obama wants is nice, but it’s what the voters in their districts want that will control." [NYP]

• Marc Ambinder thinks simply that "Obama's political coalition is not invincible and it is not perpetual. The Obama election didn't changed the fundamental political dynamics of off-year elections." [Atlantic]

• Karen Tumulty thinks the lesson here is that "Barack Obama's popularity — or his political operation — do not transfer when he is not on the ballot. This election could make Democrats more attuned to the political rhythms of their home states, and less willing to take risks." [Swampland/Time]

• Nate Silver writes that this year, all politics really were local. Obama "took a risk — a bad one, indeed — by campaigning on behalf of Corzine," but it was ultimately Corzine that voters didn't like, not Obama. [CNN]

• Ruth Marcus doesn't think the election results say much about either "Congress in 2010 or Obama in 2012." [WP]

• Mark Preston believes that losses in New Jersey and Virginia "should not be interpreted as a significant blow to President Obama," since "56 percent of Virginians said that the president was not a factor when it came down to their vote" and "that number increased to 60 percent" in New Jersey. [CNN]

• Allahpundit looks at the exit polls and opines, "You would think that a guy who appeared multiple times on the trail in two states that he carried just a year ago could generate enough excitement that the number who voted to show some support for him would exceed the number who voted to show opposition. But you would be wrong, wouldn’t you?" [Hot Air]

• Michael Tomasky says we haven't learned "very much, really" about Obama's "political health." That Obama couldn't save Corzine "does tell us that some of that 2008 lustre is gone," but at the same time, the exit polls confirmed that Obama was not a real factor, and we also have to consider that both Corzine and Deeds "happened to be bad candidates." In the end, Obama "still is not as despised as the right wing thinks he ought to be." [Guardian UK]

• John Dickerson calls it "a stretch" that voters in New Jersey and Virginia were reacting to Obama. "Each race had local issues — taxes in New Jersey and transportation in Virginia — and flawed candidates. By clear majorities, voters in New Jersey and Virginia said they weren't basing their decisions on the president." But it also wasn't a "good night" for Obama, because it showed he can't necessarily help or protect endangered Democrats, which will make them "feel less compelled to vote with him." [Slate]

• Jonah Goldberg agrees that last night's results may have been rooted in more of an "anti-incumbency," and not anti-Obama, sentiment. "But if all Barack Obama's personal popularity is good for is getting gushing profiles of his wife in supermarket magazines, 'buck up camper' essays in Newsweek and the Nobel Prize for bring hope to Norway and Sweden, that's okay with me." [Corner/National Review]

11/04 10:58 AM Share

More Mailbag [Robert Costa]

This from a reader in New York City:

I think a huge lost story today is Bloomberg's narrow victory as a huge sign for the GOP to take solace as the party looks toward 2010. First, he spent $125 million. Second, he ran against an inept Bill Thompson who is the worst type of Democrat hack. And he only won by 4% — not as a vote for Thompson but because of anti-incumbency sentiment. It seems like in 2010, familiarity is sure to breed contempt. Because the more politicians talk, posture, preen, etc, the more the populace dislikes them, and this Democratic administration can't help itself when it comes to publicity, much like Bloomberg in NY.

Shockingly, most of my colleagues and friends in NY hate Bloomberg, Democrat or Republican because while they initially did not mind his pedantic behavior when NY needed an adult in office, his overbearing nanny-state tendencies drives them nuts.

11/04 10:45 AM Share

Mailbag [Robert Costa]

Some notes from Final Countdown readers on Election Night 2009:

— How many people in 2008 do you think had their votes influenced by Obama? Practically everyone, I would guess. The fact that 60% say he was no influence now may be a story itself — a story of declining influence/power. Considering how much he helped down ticket in 2008, this does not bode well for Dems in 2010. But, the real question is whether the magic will return with him back on the ballot in 2012?

— With exit polls, the problem is that they're not polling the right people. They should be calling all those voters who voted in 2008 and stayed home in 2009 and ask them if the reason they stayed home had anything to do with Obama. That's where the big impact is, I suspect.

— I really don’t understand the worship of exit polls by the media (on all sides). If a media type ever asked me to participate, I’d either tell him/her to jump off a cliff or that I voted a straight Whig ticket because I hate Andy Jackson. Why can’t you folks get it into your head that a disproportionate number of conservatives hate the MSM and don’t participate in exit polls? Our wonderful liberal cousins, on the other hand, love telling the media about how they put Sarah Palin’s robots in their place. You cannot “correct” for this statistically, no matter what the exit pollers say.

— You asked earlier how local TV news was covering tonight's election results. I live in Chicago, but unless I missed it while flipping between channels 2, 5 and 7 (CBS, NBC, and ABC, respectively), the 10 PM newscasts are unaware that any elections are happening today elsewhere in the US. UPDATE: I thought the ABC affiliate was about to report on the election news (it started "It's been a year since Barack Obama was elected president . . ." ) but the story was about a rally of pro-illegal-immigration folks who are unhappy that Obama has not moved more forcefully on this issue. It's official. We have moved on to weather and sports. There is no election news in Chicago.

— Following the NJ Governor's race on our big NJ station, NJ 101.5. Early returns favor Christie, but the announcers are concerned about the turnout numbers in some of the more conservative counties. Christie is eating into the huge margins in some traditionally Democratic NE counties, but the turnout could be critical. If it's close, and the mail-in ballots become an issue, the Democrats have already shown they are willing to engage in pretty much outright fraud to get those votes. I live just down the road from where Corzine campaign HQ is here in East Brunswick. We're wondering if we can crash the party. Hopefully it won't have a happy ending there.

— MSM Media CNN reports 'Divided GOP' - how is the GOP divided? That's biased MSM reporting. And did you see Chris Mathews tonight? It was the first time I watched MSNBC in a long time. And wow, he's grumpy tonight, calling right-wingers radical and dangerous.

— In an evening in which the Republicans have already claimed the top three spots on the ticket in VA, with New Jersey is too close call in spite of all that Corzine money, and NY-23 looking favorable, I am amazed that the story is how this "isn't" about President Obama.

— Hey, are you aware that exit pollers make money and maybe have an incentive to lie about how reliable their results are? Do you remember 2000, when they called Florida for Gore well before they called Ohio for Bush, even though Florida was much closer?

— The cited exit polls, at least partially, miss the point. It's not so much what the people who showed up to the polls say to the exit pollsters that matters to me. It is a question of who showed up. If the Bush-haters and Obama-lovers are not energized and vote in large numbers (which I think will be the case), it is a very good thing for the GOP. Further, I doubt many people will expressly admit to voting for a gubernatorial candidate as a protest vote against a sitting president of the opposing party, even if that is a conscious or unconscious material factor.

— I wish somebody would call the MSM on this bit of illogic. If all politics are local, then this election is local, and so is Obama, so it is indeed a referendum on Obama. Only if some politics are local and other politics are national could you separate the local candidates from the national ones.

11/04 10:36 AM Share

An Exciting Win in the PA Suburbs [Kristen Soltis]

Apparently, the World Series is now responsible for one Democratic loss at the ballot box yesterday. In perhaps the funniest excuse for a loss out of a Democratic campaign last night, the spokesman for a defeated candidate for Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court told the AP, “Certainly, the local population is focused more on the Phillies than the Supreme Court.” I’d suggest a different reason for yesterday’s upset win: Republicans simply had a better candidate and better message.

Republican candidate Joan Orie Melvin’s campaign was running from behind with a deficit in voter registration and in campaign cash. So instead of infrastructure, she won on message and principles.

Her message? “Reform, transparency, and accountability.” She traveled the state talking about the importance of judicial restraint, having gained notoriety for strongly opposing a judicial pay increase a few years ago. (She stands by those principles each payday, returning her after-tax portion of the salary increase to the state treasury.)

A little election can make a big difference long term. Melvin’s win gives her a ten-year term on the Supreme Court and shifted the balance of power that will impact items like redistricting. If you look at where Melvin’s win came from, it came from Philly’s suburban voters, a key group that had drifted away from Republican candidates since 2004. This win may be an early sign of hope for winning back these voters and, potentially, Congressional seats like Sestak’s (PA-7) and Murphy’s (PA-8) that turned blue in 2006.

— Kristen Soltis is the director of policy research at the Winston Group, a strategy and polling firm in Washington, D.C.

11/04 09:39 AM Share

Final NJ Numbers [Robert Costa]

Via NJ.com, with 99 percent reporting:

CHRISTIE (R): 49% [1,135,181]

CORZINE (D): 45% [1,033,522]

DAGGETT (I): 6% [132,245]

11/04 12:57 AM Share

Hoffman Concedes [Robert Costa]

From USA Today:

USA TODAY's John Fritze reports that Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman has conceded in New York to Democrat Bill Owens. He writes:

A wildly unpredictable race for a House seat in Upstate New York gave Democrats their only high-profile victory Tuesday night in a contest both parties predicted would have implications for next year's midterm election.

Democrat Bill Owens beat Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in the down-to-the-wire race for New York's 23rd Congressional District — portions of which have been represented by Republicans for more than a century. Hoffman conceded early Wednesday morning.

11/04 12:53 AM Share

Steele: 'Not An Referendum' On Obama [Robert Costa]

RNC chairman Michael Steele tells NRO that tonight's gubernatorial victories in New Jersey and Virginia are "not a referendum" on President Obama. There's a difference, says Steele, between "the man and his policies."

"I can like you, but I don't have to like what you stand for," says Steele. "I can hope that you change your tone."

Steele was quick to dismiss Conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman losing in New York's 23rd congressional district. "This is nothing other than a special election," says Steele. The GOP, he adds, is "trying to keep the seat" and win it in 2010.

Regarding Republican Chris Christie's win in New Jersey, Steele said that he looks forward to giving "the brother four years" to accomplish his goals.

11/04 12:46 AM Share

Tuesday, November 03, 2009

With 77% Reporting: Owens 49, Hoffman 46 [Robert Costa]

From the AP:

Democrat Bill Owens had a lead of about 3 percentage points in a special Congressional election in northern New York that has grabbed national headlines in its final days as it highlighted divisions within the Republican Party.

Owens led Tuesday with 49 percent of the vote over surprise contender Doug Hoffman, a member of the state Conservative Party, who had 46 percent of the vote with about 77 percent of precincts reporting in New York's heavily Republican 23rd House district.

Republican Dierdre Scozzafava, who withdrew from the race Saturday, had still picked up 5 percent of the vote thus far.

In early reports, most votes were coming from Clinton and Jefferson County. Clinton County is Owens' home base, which was expected to go to him. Jefferson County was part of Scozzafava's strongest territory, and early signs that Owens is leading there bode well for him in picking up more of her voters.

11/03 11:53 PM Share

"Glory Days" [Robert Costa]

Everyone is dancing to the Springsteen hit here in Parsippany. It's 11:40 p.m. Ties are loose, College Republicans are high-fiving, and Team Christie is elated. That Boss tune is usually about remembering the past, but tonight, it feels like it's about the future.

Republicans everywhere, it seems, are doing a little jig, too. Two big gubernatorial wins.

Here's hoping Hoffman still has a shot in NY-23. Perhaps, as a reader tells me, he should have asked President Obama to stump for Owens...

11/03 11:44 PM Share

Christie: 'Pick Trenton Up And Turn It Upside Down' [Robert Costa]

Chris Christie's victory speech is low key, full of anecdotes from the campaign trail, and part policy lecture. He emerged from behind the curtain to Springsteen's "Born to Run."

Christie took on Corzine for his "negative, personal campaign." New Jersey decided, he says, "that enough is enough." And to the pundits, he says, "let’s put the petty politics of the past behind us and start a new era of hope and optimism in New Jersey."

11/03 11:33 PM Share

Bloomberg Wins in N.Y. After a Little Projection Retraction Scare [Kathryn Jean Lopez]

11/03 10:53 PM Share

Christie Is Welcomed [NRO Staff]

The Republican Governors Association congratulated Chris Christie for winning the New Jersey governor’s race.

“Chris Christie secured a major victory for the Republican Party tonight,” said RGA Chairman Governor Haley Barbour. “Defeating a deep-pocketed incumbent in a Democratic state like New Jersey is a tremendous accomplishment and signals the beginning of the GOP’s comeback.”

President Obama carried New Jersey by 15 points last year and a Republican hasn’t won statewide office since Governor Christie Todd Whitman was reelected in 1997. Media outlets confirm that Jon Corzine had already spent more than $28 million on his campaign as of October 27^th. Chris Christie had opted into the state’s public financing system and was limited to spending just under $12 million on his general election campaign.

“The RGA knew Chris could only win by our investing significantly in this race – starting early,” Barbour said. “By focusing on the economy and taxes for more than 5 months, the RGA helped lay the groundwork for a Republican victory.”

The RGA spent more than $7.3 million in New Jersey and first went on broadcast television on May 9th. During the summer months, the RGA spent $5 million and led the message wars on TV and radio because Christie had to severely limit his spending due to his participation in the public financing system. The RGA’s efforts resulted in Chris Christie leading by 8 points or more through Labor Day.

The RGA continued its aggressive efforts through Election Day and doubled its ad buy in the closing week to ensure Republicans would be on TV at the same level as Corzine. The RGA was also the first to recognize the threat posed by Independent candidate Chris Daggett and began successfully targeting him among conservatives and independents three weeks ago. The headline of a Real Clear Politics analysis of the race declared: “With Christie Spending Limited, RGA to the Rescue.”

“Republicans haven’t defeated an incumbent Democrat in New Jersey in more than 15 years,” said RGA Vice Chairman Tim Pawlenty. “Chris Christie’s victory is a clear sign that Republicans can win in any state next year and the RGA is poised to help candidates across the country win in 2010.”

11/03 10:28 PM Share

Christie Wins [Robert Costa]

From numerous press reports here in Jersey, that's the word. Just spoke with former Gov. Tom Kean. He is beaming. So is former Gov. Christine Todd Whitman nearby. The Springsteen cover band is going nuts. Christie should be coming to the podium soon. What a night.

11/03 10:17 PM Share

Daggett Is Conceding [Robert Costa]

That's the word at Christie HQ. "It's not a big surprise," says New Jersey State Sen. Joe Kyrillos, Christie's campaign chair. "The numbers I'm seeing town by town, county by county, are very encouraging."

11/03 09:58 PM Share

The Upstate Waiting Game [Robert Costa]

McDonnell's a winner. Christie's looking strong. And e-mails from NY-23 seem positive...

11/03 09:05 PM Share

Notes From Christie HQ [Robert Costa]

Christie HQ is buzzing. The B Street Band, a Springsteen cover band from Asbury Park, is playing tune after tune by The Boss. They're currently rocking the upbeat "Growing Up." Red, white, and blue balloons surround. The open bar is busy. Team Christie is confident but ready for a long night.

Jay Webber, the head of the Garden State GOP, tells me that if voting problems become evident, then the campaign has over 300 attorneys on the street ready to investigate. He says that Camden County in south Jersey could be an area of concern. "We're watching closely," he says. Other Christie aides cite Union County as an area of concern. Turnout, they add, is important for Christie in Bergen and Hamilton counties.

If Christie wins, Webber says that not only would it be a referendum on Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, but on President Obama, too. "By coming here twice in the last week or so to help Corzine, then the president begins to own the failures of a failed governorship."

11/03 08:42 PM Share

Watch Maine [Kathryn Jean Lopez]

here

11/03 08:35 PM Share

McDonnell Wins [Robert Costa]

From the AP:

Republicans wrested political control of Virginia from the Democrats on Tuesday as independent voters swung behind the GOP, a troubling sign for President Barack Obama and his party heading into an important midterm election year. New Jersey decided whether to stick with unpopular Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine.

Republican Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell's victory in Virginia over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds was a triumph for a GOP looking to rebuild after being booted from power in national elections in 2006 and 2008. It also was a setback for the White House in a swing state that was a crucial part of Obama's electoral landslide just a year ago. The president had personally campaigned for Deeds.

Independents — the crown jewel of elections because they often determine outcomes — were a critical part of the diverse coalition that carried the president to victory in Virginia and across the country. But, in the midst of a recession, still early in Obama's term, they fled from Democrats in a state where the economy trumped all.

Early returns showed that by a 2-1 margin McDonnell was winning rapidly growing, far-flung Washington, D.C., suburbs — places like Loudoun and Prince William counties — that Republicans historically have won but that Obama prevailed in last fall by winning over swing voters.

Interviews with voters leaving polling stations in Virginia were filled with reasons for Democrats to be concerned and for Republicans to be optimistic.

The exit polls showed that nearly a third of voters described themselves as independents and they preferred the Republican by almost a 2-1 margin over the Democrat one year after breaking heavily toward Obama. The surveys also indicated that the Democrats may have had difficulty turning out their base, including the swarms of first-time minority and youth voters whom Obama attracted as part of his coalition.

More than four in 10 voters in Virginia said their view of Obama factored into their choice on Tuesday, and those voters roughly split between expressing support and opposition for the president. People who said they disapprove of Obama's job performance voted overwhelmingly Republican, and those who approve of the president favored Deeds, the Democrat.

11/03 08:20 PM Share

Independents Flock Toward McDonnell [Robert Costa]

From the AP:

Republican Bob McDonnell took an early lead Tuesday in a closely watched governor's race that has focused on promises of jobs and critiques of President Barack Obama's policies a year after he won the state.

With about 11 percent of precincts reporting, McDonnell had about two-thirds of the vote over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds.

Interviews with voters leaving polling stations in Virginia showed that independents broke heavily for McDonnell, fleeing Deeds. Independents are considered the crown jewel of elections because they often determine outcomes.

11/03 08:02 PM Share

RGA Welcomes McDonnell [NRO Staff]

The Republican Governors Association congratulated Bob McDonnell for winning the Virginia governor’s race tonight.

“Bob McDonnell’s victory gives Republicans tremendous momentum heading into 2010,” said RGA Chairman Haley Barbour “Virginia is an important swing state that had been trending blue for twelve years.”

“Bob McDonnell proves that when Republicans campaign on solutions to the challenges on voters’ minds, we win,” Barbour continued. “His focus on ideas and pocketbook issues will serve as a model for Republicans running next year.”

Virginians last elected a Republican governor in 1997. Since that time, the state has added one million new residents, nearly half of whom reside in Northern Virginia. Between 2006 and 2008, Democrats picked up both U.S. Senate seats and control of the state senate. Their gains culminated in President Obama winning the state in last year’s presidential election – the first Democratic presidential candidate to win Virginia since 1964.

“The RGA knew winning Virginia was essential to the rebuilding of our Party,” RGA Vice Chairman Tim Pawlenty said. “That’s why we invested nearly $5.5 million in this race and made it a top priority.”

The RGA contributed $2 million directly to Bob McDonnell’s campaign last spring, allowing him to air positive television ads during May sweeps. In September, the RGA invested $1.5 million in television ads in all the media markets except Washington, D.C. that highlighted Creigh Deeds bragging about being the biggest spender in Richmond, and his plan to hike taxes. After flipping Deeds’ image by close to twenty points in all markets except D.C., the RGA began executing a $1.8 million ad campaign in October in the Washington, D.C. media market. The Washington Post called the RGA’s ads “devastating.” The RGA also contributed $100,000 for critical get-out-the-vote efforts in the campaign’s final days.

“The pressure was on the Democrats this year to hold onto Virginia, but Americans are wary of their massive lurch to the left,” Pawlenty said. “Bob McDonnell proved that a positive, idea-based, message works, and that voters in a swing state will follow someone who pledges to keep taxes low and keep the free enterprise system intact.”

11/03 08:02 PM Share

Hoffman Tire Incident Update [Robert Costa]

From the Wall Street Journal:

Until votes are counted tonight, this might be as exciting as it gets in Plattsburgh, N.Y.

Doug Hoffman, the soft-spoken Conservative Party candidate in the special House election in upstate New York came out swinging in an appearance at a campaign office this afternoon.

“We just had a report that one of our pollsters in Clinton County just had their tires slashed,” Hoffman told reporters at his campaign office in Plattsburgh, N.Y. “So I think the Democrats are doing everything they possibly can to steal this election away from the 23rd District.”

An aide said Hoffman was referring to a campaign worker at a Plattsburgh polling place, and that the campaign had filed a police report.

Capt. Michael Branch f the Plattsburgh City Police Department said the incident wasn’t criminal mischief, but rather a tire-meets-bottle affair. “This was not a tire slashing—this was some guy who drove over a bottle and cut his tire,” Branch said.

The police captain added that he had personally driven past all of Plattsburgh’s polling places and found “no disorder, no crowds, nothing going on. Peace and quiet here in Plattsburgh.”

11/03 07:52 PM Share

How are these races being portrayed on your local TV networks? [Robert Costa]

Let us know. Let's see how the MSM is already framing tonight.

11/03 07:34 PM Share

This Isn't An Obama Referendum? [Robert Costa]

According to National Journal, early exit polls in New Jersey show the economy and jobs as the number-one issue for voters, with 31 percent of those polled listing those concerns at the top of the list. Coming in second is property taxes, at 26 percent, followed by corruption at 20 percent.

Strange how the networks are already spinning this as a non-issue for President Obama, using the old ‘all politics is local’ line. When people list economy and jobs as the number-one issue, that’s also, in part, a major referendum on the Obama administration. Saying it’s just a concern about the Jersey economy is a limited reading.

11/03 07:12 PM Share

Exit Polls [Robert Costa]

From First Read:

MSNBC has been reporting on the early exit polls in New Jersey and Virginia. One of the questions: Was your vote in those gubernatorial contests to express support for President Obama or to express opposition? Or was he not a factor in your decision?

Well, according to the exits, 60% of New Jersey voters said Obama wasn't a factor in their decision. By comparison, 20% said they were expressing opposition, and 19% said they were expressing support. Obama's approval in the Garden State is 57% — which matches the percentage he won in the state in last year's presidential election.

In Virginia, 55% of voters said Obama wasn't a factor, while 24% said they were expressing opposition, and 18% said they were expressing support. Obama's approval rating in the state, according to the exits, is 51% — which is just two points off the percentage he won in Virginia last year.

From the The Fix:

The early exit polls in Virginia and New Jersey are in (out?) and the most striking thing to us in the data is that a majority of voters in both states said that President Barack Obama was not a factor in their vote and in each state the chief executive's job approval rating was above 50 percent.

While these are early returns — we CAN'T emphasize that strongly enough — they do suggest that Obama's role in determining the outcome of either race (for good or bad) may have been overstated (gasp!) in the run-up to today's vote.

That doesn't mean, of course, that across-the board defeats for Democrats tonight wouldn't be cast — at least in some circles — as a refutation of Obama but it does provide the president's party with a potentially powerful push back assuming the numbers stay the same.

And for those who want to know what the head-to-head matchups look like in the exit polls, you're out of luck. No data about the direction of a specific race can be released until polls close in a particular state.

From CNN:

Six in 10 New Jersey voters said Tuesday that President Obama had no effect on their vote in this off-year gubernatorial election, according to early CNN Exit Poll data.

Obama visited New Jersey this week to campaign for embattled Gov. Jon Corzine, who is locked in a tough re-election contest with Republican Chris Christie. When asked if Obama had an effect on their vote, 60 percent responded he was not a factor, 20 percent said their vote was meant to express opposition to him, and 19 percent said it was to support him.

More complete data will be released later in the evening. Polls close in New Jersey at 8 p.m. ET.

11/03 06:52 PM Share