4.28.00
A Message From You, Rudy

4.27.00
Gore Keeps Getting Clintoned

4.25.00
Can I Get A Witness?

4.24.00
Freeze Frame

4.19.00
Getting Away With It

4.17.00
Everyday I Write the Book...

4.14.00
Living Through Another Cuba

4.12.00
Killing In The Name Of...

4.10.00
Broadway Blues

4.07.00
Conservatism Go Boom?

4.05.00
Begala's Baby-Boomer Blues

4.03.00
Hagel-ian Logic: Bush's Ideal V.P.

3.31.00
Back Stabbin' Games People Play

3.29.00
The Ink Is Black, The Page Is White

3.27.00
Pleased to Meet You

3.23.00
Diallo II?

nyone who claims to know how the New York Senate race will turn out should just glance at the covers of the last two issues of everyone's favorite tabloid, The New York Post.

Thursday's headline was, "Rudy's A No-Show." Today (Friday), it is "Cancer Clouds Rudy Run." Two headlines with the same man mentioned in both, but the implications of both are a universe apart. Thursday's story referred to the fact that Mayor Rudy Giuliani would skip his actress wife Donna Hanover's opening night in the controversial off-Broadway production, "The Vagina Monologues." Written by feminist (and avowed Hillary supporter) Eve Ensler, the "Monologues" are a serious of rather pretentious takes on the female experience. Your humble columnist will spare NR readers a summary of some of the subjects explored in the monologues. You've all got imaginations.

Just one week ago, Hanover's decision to have a featured role in the play was very big news here. While no one disputed the fact that she was a legitimate actress, the subject matter had heads shaking everywhere. In particular, it reminded everyone that the Clintons were not the only couple with an "awkward" relationship. The biggest non-secret in New York is that Giuliani-Hanover are somewhat estranged. She has not campaigned with her husband at all. Giuliani jumped on the Elian raid earlier in the week with such ferocity that many people speculated that he was looking for a way to change the topic from stories involving his wife. The "No-Show" story referred to the fact that Hanover's opening was the same night as the state GOP convention scheduled to officially crown Rudy as the Republican Senate nominee.

What a difference 24 hours make.

New York City came to a halt at 10 a.m. Thursday, and for about 20 minutes thereafter, as Giuliani made his announcement that he had prostate cancer. He handled the press conference itself gracefully and with a little bit of humor. He appeared notably wistful when he recalled that his father had died of the disease and that he still misses him "every day." For the rest of the day, while he continued his basic schedule (with more medical tests added on), everything else changed. Usual Giuliani foils such as Al Sharpton, City Comptroller Alan Hevesi (a prostate cancer survivor), and Hillary Rodham Clinton stepped forward to give Rudy their best wishes. Donna Hanover's statement on the mayor's health was her first public statement in reference to her husband in some time. The usual news-cycle kicked in with side stories about how early diagnosis helps the long-time prognosis of those afflicted with prostate cancer.

The truth is that no one knows exactly how this story will play out politically. This is definitely not automatic good news for Hillary. This race has always been more about the respective personalities and "baggage" of each candidate as it has been about issues specific to the Empire State. While Giuliani is clearly the best candidate the Republicans could send against the first lady, he also is a fiercely polarizing individual. His record has made him the "King of New York," but his handling of the Dorismond shooting also demonstrates that he can just as easily become the prisoner of New York's political climate. Hillary has been campaigning primarily on Giuliani's temperament. His recent problems had always stemmed from his saying and doing things that fed into the caricature she was trying to paint. A law-and-order mayor (often referred to as "Adolf Giuliani" by activist opponents) calling federal law-enforcement personnel "stormtroopers," as he did with the INS agents last weekend was part of this pattern. Hillary Clinton tut-tutted such language.

But the fact is that prior to the cancer announcement, Giuliani had gotten some good political news. John Zogby's latest poll of upstate voters showed the mayor with a double-digit lead — the first positive poll story that the mayor has had since the last shooting. From a cynical standpoint, this suggests that, if he is able to go ahead (medically), the mayor should receive a sizeable political bounce from this development.

One clear message came through from his Thursday press conference: Even at a vulnerable moment, Giuliani is a fighter. New York rarely rewards victims, and he does not appear as one. Fighters are something very different. It's just simple reality to recognize that there can be a political upside to this awful news. Rich Lowry and Kate O'Beirne are quite correct in imagining Rudy eventually making appearances with Yankee skipper and prostate-cancer survivor Joe Torre. Torre was diagnosed in spring training 1999. He took some time off for surgery, but returned in May to lead the team to its second straight World Series victory. Such a move would make a not-so-subtle secondary point: Yankees owner George Steinbrenner released a statement of support Thursday, stating that Rudy was a fan of the Yankees and they were a fan of his. No explicit contrast with a certain self-described life-long Yankee fan from Chicago and Arkansas needed to be made.

Friday 's papers ran list upon list of potential Republican candidates should Rudy not be able to make the race. One name we might hear more of in the near future are Westchester District Attorney Jeanine Pirro — an attractive dynamic candidate. Her biggest liability is a husband facing tax-fraud charges; if that situation is resolved positively within the next week or so, Pirro could be formidable. Rep. Rick Lazio has been in the mix for a while. He does not face the problem of getting the Conservative Party endorsement that Giuliani has had. Even Governor George Pataki's name surfaced. Any potential candidate would have to play catch-up from a fundraising and — with anyone but Pataki, name-recognition — standpoint. But that person would not have Giuliani's negatives either, but could expect immediate support from the committed "Stop Hillary" forces around the state and nation.

But right now, this is still Rudy's race. Friday, he announced that he would be cutting his campaign appearances by half until a definite decision is made on what approach he will take to battling his illness.

Considering a political universe changed in little more than a day, no one's crystal ball is powerful enough to guess what the November outcome will be in New York state. That's not a bad message for all professional prognosticators to take to heart.

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