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 ell,
if the Diamondbacks defeating Yankee star reliever Mariano Rivera
in the bottom of the ninth inning counts as the upset of the year,
New Yorkers may be readying themselves for another one this week.
Nearly all
polls coming into this weekend indicate neo-Republican mayoral candidate
Michael Bloomberg bearing down on long-time favorite Democrat City
Public Advocate Mark Green. The Marist, Daily News/NY1 and New
York Times surveys all show billionaire Bloomberg closing what
had been a double-digit Green lead into a virtual dead-heat. The
Quinnipiac Poll, released Monday, showed it an actual tie.
Given that
Democrats have a 5-1 enrollment edge over Republicans in New York
City and GOPers win the mayoralty about once every 25 years, these
developments are quite remarkable. But then again, these are very
different times.
The major reason
that Bloomberg is competitive is money. Refusing to go along with
the city public-financing rules, he's spent a reported $50 million
of his own money and it could top out over $60 million by the time
all the votes are counted Tuesday night. His ads are ubiquitous
and the mantra "A Leader. Not A Politician" has been seen
or heard by just about every city resident.
But, there
have been other millionaire candidates running for office in New
York before. Why is this year different? Well, part of it has to
do with Mark Green himself. Anyone who has seen him on Crossfire
can understand why he would drive people up the wall. He is, as
it has been said, "Al Gore without the personality."
Green is basically
a liberal Democrat trying to run in a moderate's body. For eight
years, he was the primary thorn in Rudy Giuliani's side. The public-advocate
position in New York politics is practically a license to make mischief.
It's an odd combination of ombudsman/gadfly with the authority to
break ties in city-council votes. The holder of the office is charter-approved
to be next in line should the mayor die or become incapacitated
in office. In the hands of an ambitious individual such as Green,
the office has been set up to produce various legal and public-relations
assaults on Giuliani policies. For eight years, he was the quintessential
anti-Giuliani.
Given that
background, it is something of an accident that Green emerged as
the somewhat moderate candidate in the Democratic primary. The only
development for which Green himself might be said to be responsible
was his ability to get the endorsement of Giuliani's first police
commissioner, Bill Bratton. Everything else has come about due to
odd luck. The City Comptroller Alan Hevesi who had been the early
primary favorite imploded in a vain strategy of running to Green's
left. The more moderate City Council Speaker Peter Vallone never
really caught fire.
Meanwhile,
Bloomberg was a registered Democrat until about a year ago. He has
made no bones about the fact that he switched parties because a
Democratic primary would have been impossible to win. Bizarrely,
he candidly admitted that he was a "liberal" at a press
conference where Gov. George Pataki endorsed him. But, he's not
just liberal. Rudy Giuliani is socially liberal on abortion and
gay rights. But he has the instincts of a conservative on crime,
taxes, and challenging various liberal dogma. His battles on publicly
funded art, for example, have been immense. Bloomberg demonstrates
none of this willingness to pick symbolic cultural battles. He's
a liberal Democrat in everything but name.
This was a
major reason why the New York Post declined to endorse anyone
in tomorrow's election — to the astonishment of a few Republicans.
The paper has specific conservative criteria for which a candidate
has to reach at least the minimum requirement. Bloomberg didn't.
But, again,
given the enrollment advantage held by Democrats, this race should
still have been Green's to lose. Yet, that's what was said about
the primary — and he finished in second place before overtaking
Bronx Borough President Freddy Ferrer in a runoff.
The major irony
is that that very runoff is partly responsible for giving Green
headaches now. Green used Ferrer's own far-Left/anti-Giuliani campaign
against him. Powerful ads ridiculing Ferrer's economic positions
ended with the tagline, "Can we afford to take the chance?"
Many supporters of Ferrer — shooting to become the city's first
Puerto Rican mayor — charged the ads were racist. In addition,
several fliers with inflammatory caricatures of Sharpton and Ferrer
were distributed in various Jewish neighborhoods to highlight Sharpton's
endorsement.
In truth, that
endorsement was largely responsible for Ferrer's win in the initial
primary. Even though Ferrer eventually endorsed Green, ill-feelings
between the campaigns remained. That is something Michael Bloomberg
has swooped in to take advantage of. Perhaps only a true liberal
Democrat like Michael Bloomberg could pull this off — a real
Republican might not be able to stoop to this level. However, last
week, fliers were mailed to Ferrer supporters. They included a large
picture of Ferrer with the slogan, "He made History."
The fliers were from the Bloomberg campaign and included complimentary
statements about the Republican candidate from former Ferrer supporters.
Bloomberg,
who has benefited from Giuliani's endorsement in battling Mark Green,
is now going headlong to pick up the supporters of Freddy Ferrer
— who set himself up as the "anti-Giuliani." In other
words, his coalition may be a fusion of pro-Giuliani white Catholics
and anti-Giuliani Latinos.
Remember Bloomberg's
slogan? "A Leader. Not a politician."
As the Post's
Cindy Adams would say, "Only in New York, kids, only in New
York."©
But, one can't
fault Bloomberg for his primary message. He is betting that something
truly fundamental has changed after September 11. That is true to
a certain extent. Whereas education had been number one in surveys
before the attacks, that issue is now number two. Rebuilding the
city economy is now the top priority. Bloomberg sees himself as
uniquely qualified to be the individual able to respond to that
issue. Commercials with Giuliani saying that the city will be in
"good hands" with Bloomberg as mayor may push the media
magnate over the finish line.
Conservatives
have no real reason to be happy regardless of who wins Tuesday.
Yet, national Republicans might have a grudging smile if Bloomberg
wins — if only to assuage in part the bad feelings from likely
losses in gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia.
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