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 erhaps
New York should have expected that something odd was in the air
— something which would result in the biggest earthquake to
hit politics since, well, since no time anyone can remember. (You'll
have to forgive me; I'm still pouring through the history books
to find the last time Republicans won three consecutive mayoral
races in New York City). Just the odd assortment that went a-campaigning
Monday night sent some signal.
Two Republicans
who have given other Republicans major headaches at times —
Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Senator John McCain — toured
around the city to vouch for neo-Republican Michael Bloomberg. Of
course, Giuliani and McCain share something in common: They have,
at different times, been eyed suspiciously by their party, while
becoming, however briefly, the most popular politician in the country.
Of course, the mayor and the senator have been linked over the last
couple of weeks as the most visible supporters of their respective
baseball teams, the New York Yankees and Arizona Diamondbacks. Anyway,
there they were championing the efforts of a billionaire who had
joined the GOP barely twelve months ago.
If that wasn't
bizarre enough, Mark Green capped his campaign by touring around
town with Bill Clinton — and Ted Kennedy (I am not making this
up). Considering that one of the main "issues" Green was
using against Bloomberg in the final days was ages-old charges of
sexual harassment in Bloomberg's firm, these were odd choices to
be sure. Oh the irony!!!
But, here we
are. Michael Bloomberg is mayor elect. How did it happen? Well,
a number of reasons:
1) "Green"
beat Green. Bloomberg spent more than $50 million to win this
race. He has, in a sense become the GOP's Jon Corzine. Green spent
barely $5 million. But, the fault here is Green's agreement to stick
with New York City's strict campaign finance laws. Don't be surprised
if the Democrat-dominated city council votes to scrap or modify
this law sometime over the next four years. Bloomberg rightly figured
that the only way he was going to be able to get his name out was
by spending his own money. He did and the impact was devastating
in the final few days. As one person put it, "I saw more of
Mike Bloomberg during the World Series than Derek Jeter. Mark Green
couldn't keep up with this unprecedented level of advertising —
especially the "good hands" ad by the outgoing mayor.
2) Rudy beat Green. Bloomberg's victory should be quite sweet
for Rudy Giuliani. The public advocate has been on the attack against
the mayor for eight years. He has grown in stature mainly in opposition
to just about every initiative — especially when it came to
crime and cops — Giuliani put forward. But the mayor has had
the last laugh. Bloomberg's first $40 million got him to within
sixteen points of Green. Rudy's endorsement and another $10 million
or so were enough to eliminate Green completely.
3) "Clinton"
beat "Gore." Even though the former president endorsed
Mark Green, Bloomberg had far more powerful tools in his employ
— Clinton's former consultants. Bloomberg's campaign was quite
top-heavy with Democrats, not the least of which were pollsters
Mark Penn and Doug Schoen. They were successful together on Hillary
Clinton's Senate campaign. Add to that Al Gore's media team, led
initially by the late Bob Squier. But this just goes to show how
well the Schoen-Squier magic worked with a suitably pliable candidate.
Bloomberg put together an odd Republican version of Clinton's coalition.
It is contradictory in that it has Giuliani's white base, 41 percent
of defeated Democratic primary candidate Freddy Ferrer's Latino
base (Bloomberg and Green split the Hispanic vote) and a quarter
of blacks. Bloomberg got the endorsement of the Republican-hating,
Giuliani-despising Amsterdam News (at last count, the African-American
weekly had produced 175 consecutive "Giuliani Must Be Removed"
editorials). Pierre Sutton, son of black political titan Percy Sutton,
and president of Inner City Broadcasting endorsed a Republican for
the first time ever. As one moderate black leader put it Monday,
"The real story is Mark Green's ducking of black radio."
Bloomberg appeared on several black public affairs programs in the
final days. Green declined such invitations.
Thus, Bloomberg
was making determined efforts to expand the usual Republican base
in the last few days. The inroads into the Hispanic community were
actually sown well before the Green-Ferrer meltdown. Like George
W. Bush, Bloomberg started advertising in Spanish media early and
began taking Spanish lessons. Thus, he was well situated to take
advantage of the Democratic party implosion. Again, his Democrat
roots probably made this more effective than had he been a long-standing
Republican. The ads were also of the political jiu-jitsu that sold
Bill Clinton to the American people twice. Perhaps the most effective
was one which used Rep. Charlie Rangel's words criticizing Mark
Green's treatment of Freddy Ferrer and asserted that Green was using
similar dirty tricks against Bloomberg — thereby inoculating
Bloomberg against the charges. Brilliant.
In contrast,
Green's final undoing was running a campaign that, by its end was
almost completely negative. In other words, Mark Green had Bill
Clinton at his side, but he became Al Gore the Vicious, Al Gore
the Destroyer.
The low point
was Monday. Trying to take advantage of the sexual-harassment charges
leveled against Bloomberg, Green discovered a court affidavit in
which Bloomberg had been alleged to tell a woman employee who told
him she was pregnant to "Kill it!! Kill it!!" In other
words, abort the fetus. The charges were put into a 30-second spot.
The accusation may well be true (Bloomberg denied it). But for the
pro-choice Green to be throwing an ad like this, quite literally
in the last 24 hours was, in the eyes of most political experts,
inexplicable and hypocritical in the extreme. Far worse was the
sense that, in the context of everything that New York City had
gone through in the last two months, stunningly inappropriate. Five
thousand dead in lower Manhattan, and the Democratic candidate releases
an ad that screams, "Kill it!! Kill it!!"? That desperate
measure may well have been the suicidal mantra of a campaign falling
completely apart.
4) September
11 beat Green. Appropriately, things Green are supposed to drop
in the fall. New York City had to hit bottom in 1993 for a Republican
— Rudy Giuliani — to get elected. He came in and cleaned
up the city and made it economically vibrant once again. The final
irony would be that he was about to leave a city so revitalized
that it made it relatively easy for liberal Democrats to expect
a return to power. Mark Green was prepared for that reality. Then
the world changed. Instead, the final irony is that the best mayor
the city has ever had is leaving his beloved city in an awful condition
— through no fault of his or its own.
It is under
such conditions that a self-made millionaire can come to take the
reins of the greatest city in the world.
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