h, yes, it could have been the ultimate irony.

For one brief moment, the possibility existed that something Robert Fiske, Ken Starr, and umpteen congressional committees were unable to do, the most unlikely of individuals was about to produce. Yes, the Holy Grail of the conservative movement was in sight — proof positive that our long national nightmare was over: Al Sharpton (of all people) was going to give the world Hillary Rodham Clinton in handcuffs!

Alas, 'twas not to be.

Sharpton plans a series of protests for Easter week. They will be modeled after the Reverend's arrest-a-thon from Spring '99 (the "success" of which is debatable, since the attention it garnered was instrumental in getting the Diallo cops' trial moved to Albany). The plan is to keep attention placed on the cop-shooting issue and hopefully get the U.S. Attorney to step in or have a federal monitor placed over the NYPD. Friday, Hillary told the local 24-hour news station that she would not be participating in Sharpton's civil- disobedience event. Furthermore, the first lady suggested that the entire rhetoric surrounding the Patrick Dorismond shooting needed to quiet down. Instead of Hillary in handcuffs, viewers were rewarded with a bit of adroit shamelessness worthy of (gasp!) Bill Clinton.

In a quick turn of phrase, Hillary was able to distance herself from Sharpton's "radical" agenda, and make herself look like a voice of reason between the Rotund Rev. and the Angry Mayor. Triangulation, anyone?

No one can really dispute that Hillary has had a couple of really good weeks here.

Giuliani is in a free-fall in the polls: The latest, the New York Times/CBS News poll, reported Friday that Hillary was up 49-41 (52-42 when leaners were factored in). Now this Times poll usually oversamples "registered" voters as opposed to likely voters. Thus, the gap in this poll was much wider than other recent ones. However, the basics were the same: The mayor is oozing support, primarily because of his handling of the Dorismond incident—with, of course, more than a bit of media piling on (surprise!). The high/low point of last week was an April 5 cable interview with Dorismond's mother and sister: Contrary to Giuliani's ill-advised comment that Dorismond was "no altar boy," it turns out that he literally was once an altar boy. Worse, he even attended Giuliani's alma mater, Bishop Laughlin High School. Ouch. Sometimes irony ain't so great.

The Times poll highlighted two extreme danger areas for Giuliani: For one, he is tied with Hillary upstate at 44 percent. That is almost unheard of for a Republican running statewide and a disastrous showing against someone who only moved here last fall. Dorismond is less the issue there. Instead, it's more that Hillary has been campaigning upstate more than Giuliani has. Rudy makes the point that he has a day job and HRC doesn't. That's true, but unfortunately it looks a bit like a cop-out: Giuliani is term-limited (his term would naturally end in 2001), so he will have to do something else. He might as well go all-out in this race. Hillary has been acting as if she wants to win this (which, of course, she does). To use a sports metaphor, she seems "hungrier" for this than he does. Giuliani made the point in his January State of the City address that being mayor of New York is the "best job I'll ever have." Not to get too analytical about it, but it's not completely out of the realm of speculation to wonder if Giuliani's heart is totally in this race.

Giuliani claims that he needs to spend time on city business, but his current attending to such business is actually being viewed negatively by the residents. That's the second danger in the Times poll: His job-approval rating among city residents is down to 32 percent — easily the lowest of his career (among blacks it was 7 percent or, as the Times put it, "virtually unmeasurable"). There is some thought that he needs to just get out of town for a while.

But Hillary's allies may make that impossible. In addition to Sharpton, the local teachers' union rejected a deal for summer-school instruction, charging that its merit-pay measure was too generous to teachers in high-performing schools! Bizarre, yes, but it gave Hillary the opportunity to label Giuliani's education policy a failure. It's beginning to seem clear that the Democrats are developing a cynical, yet viciously ingenious, strategy: Force Giuliani to choose between being on offense upstate or being on defense in the city. But with more city residents perceiving his tactics as literally offensive, one can see that the mayor is in a damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don't spot.

The Dorismond shooting has exposed a quiet secret about Rudy Giuliani — he's not a particularly good politician. That shouldn't be seen as a total criticism: It just reflects that, when the mayor was elected in 1993, New York City was in truly awful shape, in terms of both economics and public safety. Giuliani didn't have to be either politic or demonstrate a mastery of politics to get things cleaned up. He had a clear mandate. He was able to stare down his critics. His unyielding position won him the support of most residents, the cops, and the business community. His remarkable success in bringing down crime and cleaning up Times Square won him a resounding second term in 1997.

But, Giuliani has to understand that he is not currently running to be Mayor of New York State.

There are still more than seven months before the November election, but Giuliani must be wary of becoming "defined" (to use a Bushism) by either Hillary or the events swirling around him.

Ironic as it seems, a case can be made that Hillary Clinton is becoming both the better campaigner and the better politician in this race. I mean that in the worst and best senses of the word. The worst has been on display from the beginning: She's a "New Yorker" — despite never having lived here before. She's a "Yankee fan" — though having talked about her beloved Cubs a couple of years ago. Oh, and she has a distant grand-relative who was Jewish. And then there was the FALN release…and Suha Arafat's slander about Israeli Jews poisoning Palestinian children. But that was then.

Hillary has since weathered that period and is now on something of a roll. Giuliani has blown everyone away with his fundraising ability. He has so far raised $19 million to Hillary's $12 million. But the longer he spends defending his mayoralty (i.e. looking like he is defending the past), the less time he is able to be making a claim for the Senate seat (i.e. discussing the future).

Giuliani's challenge is to translate his success as mayor into a vision of what he would do as senator. This is not an easy task, as it requires a light touch that Giuliani has never really been known to possess. Furthermore, the stare-down technique — which has worked in the past — doesn't seem to be getting traction right now. In previous years, the mayor's dismissive attitude toward the "usual suspects" made him look strong. His more recent outbursts — especially in the context of the Dorismond shooting and the arrest-record aftermath — make him now look petulant and cranky. These attitudes play into Hillary's strategy of making temperament an issue.

Similarly, a typical politician would at this point have made some kind of peace with the still-influential Conservative Party chairman Mike Long. Long has refused to put the mayor on the Conservative ballot line unless the pro-choice Giuliani supports at least a partial birth-abortion ban. Giuliani sees any change in his position as a flip-flop and a capitulation. Considering that the man he is going to replace, Daniel Patrick Moynihan, thinks partial-birth is "infanticide," Giuliani could have adjusted his position. Instead, he has dug in his heels and barely given Long the time of day. Thus, Long continues to encourage Rick Lazio into challenging Giuliani for the GOP nomination or simply running on the Conservative line. It's unlikely Lazio would do this without Governor George Pataki's support (which he doesn't have), but these are distractions Giuliani could have done without and a situation he could have avoided.

There's still a long time to go in this race. John McCain has been campaigning with the mayor in recent days (bus tour, of course) and cut an ad ("Integrity") with him that is now running around the state. It's not a bad idea to have the popular McCain come in for Giuliani. It's clearly designed to appeal to moderate Democrats and independents. But Giuliani has to keep in mind that McCain still lost the state to Bush. On the other side, Sharpton's impending Easter protests are fraught with danger for Hillary Clinton. Sharpton has even threatened some nighttime protests to interrupt Broadway shows. Aside from enraging tourists and residents alike, such an action would even ruffle the feathers of a number of Broadway performers who have not been shy in their lauding of Hillary or bashing of Rudy ("Cheers" alum Bebe Neuwirth from the Chicago revival has been particularly annoying).

Well, New York Senate observers, no Hillary in handcuffs (sigh!), but a Sharpton-led "Brownout" of the Great White Way (figure-of-speech, PC advocates) definitely has possibilities.