11/16/00 9:30 a.m.
Gore’s Moves, Bush’s Lead
PR night out.

Robert A. George is an editorial page writer
for the New York Post------------------------------------RAGGEDmail@aol.com

ere we are, Day Nine of America's Election Held Hostage and things have moved only slightly more forward. An interesting pattern is beginning to emerge however. The Gore camp has clearly been more aggressive and has managed to regularly keep the Bush team on the defensive. Interestingly enough, the Bush campaign has repeatedly lost ground since Election Day. His margin on that day was around 1,700 votes; today, it is 300. The campaign's federal lawsuit to prevent hand counting was tossed out--few conservatives even thought it had a chance of winning. The 11th Circuit Court of Appeals will hear the case Thursday and may rule in Bush's favor. But, so far there's little cause for hope there.

That said, George W. Bush is still in a far better — if not stronger — position than Al Gore. While Gore gains psychological personal advantage from having "won" the popular vote (for however long that may last), the truth is that Bush was "declared" the winner on Election Day. This gives him a powerful public-relations club. The American people were "told" in the early morning hours of November 8 that George W. Bush had won. Many went to bed with that knowledge. Not all the maneuverings of the last several days can change that particular reality. That's why many polls show a majority of the public — even those who voted for Gore — think Bush has the inside track to being inaugurated on January 20, 2001.

Still, everything that has gone the Bush way has had little to do with the Bush effort. Until Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris ruled on Monday that the November 14 5PM deadline for all ballots had to be upheld, Bush was looking at a loss in the hand counts. Similarly, it is only because Harris announced Wednesday evening that she would not accept amended ballot counts from Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties that Bush is still in the game.

The Gore campaign's decision to go to court to overturn Harris's decision will force Gore onto the defensive and be seen as extending the situation.

Gore had no reason to believe that the day would end quite the way it did. The veep's 6:30 speech was a masterful piece of political artifice. Was his offer to have statewide manual recounts and asking to sit down with Bush a cynical ploy? Of course, but he seemed to be taking a "statesman" role. He said that they needed to "improve the tone of our dialogue in America." Very nice, smooth words, indeed. Of course, it begs the question: Earlier this week, Gore press secretary Chris Lehane likened Katherine Harris to a "Soviet commissar"? How do you improve on that tone of dialogue, Mr. Vice President?

Still, for the majority of the public, such statements are background noise. Cynical ploys aside, Gore had seized the initiative. The scene in the vice president's official residence looked vaguely "presidential." He came out at a time ideal for the evening news, thus he was able to interrupt the marathon legal and constitutional talking heads that had taken over the nation's 24-hour cable stations.

Bush's response three-and-a-half hours later, was adequate by staying in the "vision" level and showing a willingness to meet with Gore — after the election was certified. However, it suffered in being relegated to cable. Worse, it was another example of something seen too frequently over the last two weeks. He was playing defense again. In certain respects, that was partly the successful style of the governor's campaign — allowing Gore to make mistakes which put Bush in a comparatively better light. The first debate is a perfect example. However, this time around, Gore is running the better political operation and the Republican would-be president-elect seems tentative and passive. This attitude nearly cost Bush the election during the final weekend as Gore went on a 30-hour marathon and the late deciders shifted toward the Democrats. Gore hasn't stopped since.

But, still it may very well be all over when the overseas ballots come in. Republicans usually have an edge when it comes to absentee ballots in general. This time, with military readiness being part of the Bush-Cheney message, these ballots should strengthen Dubya's lead. However, the Bush people had best not be too overconfident in that regard. Let's not forget that one of the least-remarked parts of the Clinton legacy has been the importation of the "Third Way" political sensibility. Via the efforts of strategists like James Carville and Stan Greenberg, the '92 Clinton effort was replicated in Great Britain in 1997, Germany in 1998, and Israel in 1999. Clintonite allies are all around the world now. While Ehud Barak is in awful political shape himself, is it out of the realm of possibility that there might not be some "mischief" being made on behalf of Florida residents "living" in Israel?

Stay tuned.