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After Al Gore’s shutout in the states of the old confederacy in 2000, many Democrats are hungry for a candidate who can win over a state or two in the Republican-leaning region. The last Democratic candidate to win the presidency from north of the Mason-Dixon line was John F. Kennedy in 1960. Edwards was the only southerner in the race until Sen. Bob Graham of Florida joined the crowded field. Edwards isn’t shying away from touting his southern roots and its importance to Democratic competitiveness in 2004. In campaign stops throughout the region, he has talked about how important the south is to both his winning the Democratic nomination and then in cutting into the electoral base of President Bush and the Republicans. “It's cultural,” Edwards told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “People, especially Southerners, want to feel like when they vote, particularly for president, that the person they voted for has a personal connection to them, that they understand their lives, that they'll fight for the things that affect their lives.” Edwards’s southern appeal will be tested early in the Democratic contest in the South Carolina primary. The leader in the latest poll in that state is “undecided,” with Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut coming in a distant second. The American Research Group survey of 600 likely primary voters found that 47 percent were undecided, with Lieberman at 19 percent, Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri at 9 percent, Kerry at 8 percent, Edwards at 7 percent, and everyone else below 5 percent. “The South Carolina primary is going to be vitally important,” says Scott Huffmon, a political-science professor at Winthrop University in the Palmetto State. “I don’t believe that whoever wins is going to pick up South Carolina when they go against Bush, but the kind of Democrat who can win the South Carolina primary is much more likely to pick up a southern state or two in general election.” That said, Huffmon thinks the state’s primary may pose a few challenges to Edwards. “Congressman Jim Clyburn, an African-American who represents the state’s midlands, owes some debt to Dick Gephardt,” Huffmon says. “If Gephardt calls in his chits, that could spell trouble for Edwards.” Clyburn hasn’t endorsed anyone yet, and he says he doesn’t expect to make one until much closer to the primary. But Clyburn told the Los Angeles Times, “I have a relationship with Dick I don't have with anyone else [running].” Gephardt also recently named Isaac Williams, a former Clyburn staffer, as director of his South Carolina campaign. The risk for a Democrat who claims to be the party’s southern hope is that a perception of weakness in his home region will undermine that tactical argument — in other words, they need to prove that they can beat Bush in the south. The perception of Edwards’s tactical strength took a shot earlier this week when a survey done for the Raleigh News and Observer revealed that if the election were held today, Bush would handily beat Edwards in North Carolina. About 58 percent of likely voters backed the president, while 38 percent chose Edwards. (In another ominous sign for Edwards, TarHeel Democrats were split evenly between he and Kerry, with 43 percent each.) “We have to take these poll results with a grain of salt,” cautions Huffman. “The election isn’t going to be held tomorrow — it’s not for another year. The president will have long lost his war bounce, as did his father before him. When it does, we’ll have a better sense of how does Edwards stack up. It’s tough to tell that when the president is riding high.” But the poll numbers could be a red flag for Edwards, suggests Allan Louden, an associate professor of communications at Wake Forest University. Louden, who was Elizabeth Dole’s debate coach during the 2002 North Carolina senate race, thinks Democrats will doubt Edwards’s ability to win Arkansas, Tennessee, or Louisiana if he’s perceived to be losing his own state. “If Edwards is seen as somebody who can’t pick up his own state, people are going to be thinking in back of their minds, ‘Al Gore!’” Louden says. Edwards’s presidential challenge is also likely to be complicated by the fact that his Senate reelection campaign isn’t looking like a cakewalk. While state law allows him to seek both offices, few of his supporters expect him to take that option. Rep. Richard Burr (R., N.C.), is seriously eyeing Edwards’s Senate seat. According to press accounts, Burr raised more than $700,000 at a fundraiser attended by Karl Rove recently, and he expects to have more than $10 million in his campaign coffers for the 2004 race. “Edwards is pretty good at balancing his constituencies,” Huffmon says. “But if he doesn’t get the nomination, that will affect his Senate race in 2004. At this point, his running is going to be detrimental, but we don’t know whether it kills it, it hurts it, or whether it only affects it a little bit.” Louden says it’s not clear when Edwards will be forced to choose between defending his Senate seat and his presidential aspirations, “but I imagine it’s not far from the New Hampshire primary [slated for Jan. 27, 2004]… Of course, everything in the North Carolina Senate race will change once the race gets focused and Edwards focuses his ability to define Burr.” Erskine Bowles, White House chief of staff during the Clinton administration and the Democrat who lost to Dole in 2002, has said he will run if Edwards does not seek reelection. This weekend’s debate between the Democratic candidates in South Carolina — “The Collision in Columbia” — is likely to offer a preview of the party’s southern pitch. Former Vermont Gov. Howard “Dean is pretty articulate,” Huffmon says. He reminds me of Tony Blair, in that he actually says what he means. But in a way that’s not South Carolina. I don’t mean that pejoratively, but that kind of glibness may not be what they’re looking for… But otherwise, this debate could be bad for all of them. There will be too many on stage, nobody will get enough time. The fun will be seeing who gets attacked the most, and the assumption will be that that candidate is the frontrunner. But maybe they’ll all attack Edwards.” — Jim Geraghty is a reporter with States News Service in Washington, D.C. |
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