November 04, 2003, 8:09 a.m.
Lingering Underdogs
Why Moseley Braun, Sharpton, and Kucinch won’t leave anytime soon.

After five (Six? Ninety?) Democratic presidential primary debates, a disgruntled complaint is murmuring through the party: Get rid of the long shots.

"I think the crowded field allows the most shrill, conflict-oriented, confrontational voices to be heard, and not necessarily the person who might make the best candidate or the best president," Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts lamented to the New York Times. "They're very superficial."

Donna Brazile, the head of Al Gore's campaign in 2000, wants members of her party to start coalescing around a frontrunner sooner rather than later.

"It's time for the rubber to hit the road," Ms. Brazile told the Times. "It's time for some of the candidates to stay home."

Ted Van Dyk, a columnist for the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, grumbles that "the large number of candidates involved in the joint appearances reduces the larger figures in size to those of the smallest... If you are a Democrat who wants to regain the White House next year, those miserable TV mob scenes cannot end too soon."

Even a few conservatives, who probably ought to be chuckling at the bar-scene-in-Star-Wars-level variety at each candidate forum, are motioning for the hook.

"Perhaps the reason the Democrats aren't being heard is that they're speaking with too many mouths," writes syndicated columnist Armstrong Williams. "It's time for some of them to go."

Well, don't put any money on it happening before the Iowa caucuses.

As Jim Rutenberg of the New York Times delicately put it, "Winnowing the debate field would be a particularly tricky proposition for a party that preaches inclusiveness. This is especially the case when two of the stragglers, [Rev. Al] Sharpton and former Senator Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois, are African-American."

Which debate organizer is willing to incur the wrath of Braun or Sharpton? Who wants to explain to the National Organization of Women why the candidate they endorsed, Braun, won't be getting a podium of her own any longer?

In 1996, Alan Keyes got himself arrested by showing up uninvited to a GOP primary debate, and stirred up a hornet's nest of publicity and attention by accusing debate organizers of shutting him out, even threatening a hunger strike. Sharpton could turn his exclusion into a major media event and public-relations headache for the DNC faster than you can say, "Freddie's Fashion Mart."

Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich wouldn't be able to attribute his exclusion to racial insensitivity — but the passionate liberal, competing for the hearts and votes of the Naderites and Green-Party types, would probably cite his debate eviction as an example of the party selling its soul and losing its heart.

Kucinich is already carping at Vermont Gov. Howard Dean for ignoring the Ohio congressman in his attack ads.

"I'd have to say to Dr. Dean, you said in paid TV ads that only you opposed the war in Iraq, but that's not true," Kucinich said in the last debate. "Why forfeit the public trust? Why can't you just admit you made a mistake and take down the ad? I mean, you have Ambassador Braun, Mr. Sharpton, myself, we opposed the war. Why don't you take down those ads? They're not true."

Dean could be forgiven if he had asked aloud why he had to waste valuable airtime addressing the complaints of a little-known gadfly congressman rather than reiterating his usual talking points about how the other Democratic candidates are Bush Lite. But instead, he stood by the ad.

"The ad says, among other things, '130,000 troops in Iraq with no end in sight and a price tag that goes up daily. The best my opponents can do is ask questions today that they should have asked before they supported the war,'" Dean said. "So don't think my ad is inaccurate at all. I'm talking about the people who supported the war, with whom I disagree."

Braun, Sharpton, and Kucinich are running low-budget campaigns. They aren't bothering with high-priced political consultants, pollsters, or focus groups. They aren't spending much on radio and television commercials in key primary states. Their campaign events focus on college campuses, church pulpits, quirky celebrity endorsements (Gloria Steinem for Braun, Willie Nelson and Ed Asner for Kucinich, rappers P. Diddy and Jay-Z for Sharpton) and state-party dinners. They get most of the publicity they need through the debates, leisurely sit-down interviews with newspaper editorial boards, and appearances on cable talk shows (Crossfire, Hardball, Hannity & Colmes).

(Oh, by the way, the New Hampshire Green Party endorsed Kucinich last week, and state party spokesman Guy Chichester said the party may try to recruit the Ohio congressman to run on its ticket in the general election. He clarified that Kucinich would only get the nod "if" he fails in his attempt for the Democratic nomination. So count the former Cleveland mayor in at least until the Granite State primary on Jan. 27.)

And there one last reason why the underdogs aren't likely to quit anytime soon. While they may be far behind in Iowa and New Hampshire, all three have a decent shot at finishing second or third (or even, if the vote is split enough ways, first) in the first Democratic primary of 2004.

No, really.

Iowa and New Hampshire aren't happy about it, but the first contest for the Democratic contenders in 2004 will be a non-binding "beauty pageant" primary in the District of Colombia — 60 percent black, and 90 percent Democrat. No scientific polls of district residents have been conducted yet, forcing primary watchers to measure candidates' success by examining turnout at rallies, local endorsements, and informal "straw polls" of activists. The emerging consensus is that Dean, Sharpton, and Braun are the early leaders, with Kucinich not that far behind.

"Carol Moseley-Braun will be competitive," says Mark Richards, a pollster and contributor to the district-focused website, First Primary Blog. "She's been showing up at a number of places people don't usually look, in churches and pulpits."

"She's kind of tapped into a feeling here," said Sam Farmer, a web developer who has been involved in peititions and e-mail campaigns to organize and publicize the D.C. primary. "I think the strongest ones are definitely Dean, Kucinich, Sharpton,and Moseley Braun."

There was a straw poll of 160 district Democrats conducted after the October 26 debate in Detrot, at the Capitol Hill bar Politiki. The results, courtesy First Primary Blog:

Dean, 58%
Sharpton, 12%
Braun, 8%
Clark, 7%
Kucinich, 5%
Kerry, 3%
Edwards, 2%
Gephardt, 2%
Lieberman, 1%

If you were Sharpton, Braun, or Kucinich, would you drop out, knowing you had a good chance to beat four of the five the big-name candidates the first time Democrats go to the polls in 2004?

— Jim Geraghty, a reporter for States News Service, is an NRO contributor.

*   *   *

YOU’RE NOT A SUBSCRIBER TO NATIONAL REVIEW? Sign up right now! It’s easy: Subscribe to National Review here, or to the digital version of the magazine here. You can even order a subscription as a gift: print or digital!