October 18, 2004, 9:00 a.m.
Down to Four?
The race for 270 electoral votes.

The debates are now over and no major "events" can be predicted to shake up the presidential race. Polls seem to indicate we are in another squeaker of an election with almost every poll within the margin of error, some showing Bush ahead and some showing Kerry with a plurality. Where are we in the electoral college? The race seems to have tightened here as well.

Currently, my analysis shows 264 electoral votes solid or leaning for Bush with 238 leaning or solidly for Kerry. The yellow toss-up states are down to four (Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Ohio) representing 36 votes plus the one vote of Maine's second congressional district, which is also up for grabs. Since my last analysis, I have moved Minnesota and Oregon into the leaning Kerry camp, showing some new strength after the debates. With fully 172 votes only leaning one way or another, however, anything can still happen.

Look for an intense air and ground campaign in the four toss-up states in the coming days with each side also attempting to pick-off a few states leaning the other guy's way. Look for Kerry to focus particularly on the Bush pink states of Nevada, Colorado, Florida, and Wisconsin. Bush will likely focus hard on Kerry's powder blue states of Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Oregon, with a far more distant chance of swaying Michigan or Maine.

While the map still tilts Bush's way, the balance is precarious. If Kerry, for instance, could pick up Florida and Ohio, it is difficult to see how Bush could win barring the unlikely pick-up of Pennsylvania or Michigan and key wins elsewhere. On the other hand, if Bush can win both Ohio and Florida, it is difficult to see him losing.

— Gary L. Gregg is director of the McConnell Center for Political Leadership and editor of Securing Democracy: Why We Have an Electoral College and Considering the Bush Presidency (with Mark Rozell). Gregg is also NRO's official electoral-college dean.

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