 ames
S. Robbins, a professor of international relations at the National
Defense University's School for National Defense Studies & NRO
contributor. The opinions expressed in this article are the author's
and do not necessarily reflect the views of NDU, the Department of
Defense, or the government of the United States.
Kathryn
Jean Lopez: There are reports on the Internet and in
a Japanese newspaper that Mullah Mohammed Omar and Osama bin Laden
are dead. Where are these coming from and should we have any reason
to believe them — over, say, the claims of the Taliban?
James
S. Robbins: On October 24 a Chinese internet news site,
Zhongxin
Wang, ran a piece describing in detail the purported assassination
of Osama bin Laden and Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar by members
of their retinue at an underground base near Kandahar on October
16. They were both shot twice in the back. One of bin Laden's sons
and two of Omar's were also killed. The story was picked up today
by the Tokyo-based Yomiuru Shimbun, the largest daily newspaper
in Japan. Of course rumors and war go hand in hand, and without
proof one way or another what is one to think?
Lopez:
Last week there was a meeting in Afghanistan with top Taliban leaders
after which they announced that the Taliban would fight under other
leaders if Mullah Omar dies. This meeting began on October 16, the
day this Chinese site claims Omar was shot. Coincidence?
Robbins:
Well, there were some strange things going on in Afghanistan last
week. The Pakistani press reported that Mullah Omar had convened
a Shura (council meeting) in Kandahar on the 16th of more
than 100 Taliban commanders. This alone strikes one as unusual.
How could they get to Kandahar safely? And, once there, wouldn't
they present a perfect target for the allied forces? Maybe they
were — the meeting lasted until the 19th, which was the day
of the U.S. Ranger raid on Kandahar. When the Shura ended the Taliban
issued some odd comments. For example, they "advised"
Mullah Omar to "control the command of the Taliban army by
remaining underground," and also "directed Usama bin Ladin
and his associates to remain underground." They also set up
a line of succession should Omar be "martyred," and "expressed
their determination to remain united until the end, even after their
leader is martyred." It might sound like prudent planning to
establish a line of succession — the United States has one
for example — but in an authoritarian regime it is rare. Usually
it amounts to a death sentence for the person tapped as the successor.
In this case four Taliban commanders were named as possible successors
— which could mean that the Shura could not decide on
a single successor, and a power struggle is underway. The AP report
of the arrest of 100 people in Kandahar also fits the puzzle.
And one more
thing to consider: On Oct. 16, Taliban Corps Commander Mullah Muhammad
Akhtar Usmani, one of the people named as a possible successor to
Omar, made a lengthy statement that Omar and his family were "safe
at their residence" and "completely unharmed." But
no one had claimed otherwise.
Lopez:
What would be a possible motivation for the Taliban to
kill either Mullah Omar or Osama bin Laden? And if they did, why
wouldn't they come right out and blame it on us, possibly, even
inciting international calls for the U.S. to end the strikes on
Afghanistan?
Robbins:
Motives are hard to judge. The assassins were clearly on a suicide
mission. We can't know for whom they were working; maybe they were
just Afghan patriots. The alleged attack coincided with an unscheduled
meeting between Taliban Foreign Minister Wakil Ahmad Mutawakkil
(another of the possible successors and a so-called "moderate")
and U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell. It was rumored that Mutawakkil
was defecting, but he returned to Afghanistan. Not much has been
heard of him since he pledged "complete trust in the leadership
of Mullah Omar" in an interview on al Jazeera television October
19. It is satisfying to think that Omar and bin Laden are dead,
and we should know soon if this is true. This kind of thing can't
stay secret for long. If they are dead then we can assume that the
faction that killed them has been expunged and the Taliban has decided
to fight on — otherwise they would have announced the martyrdom,
no doubt fighting the American invaders or some such thing. If they
aren't dead, this could be disinformation, but by whom and for what
purpose is unclear. It hardly benefits the Taliban for these stories
to get out. I think they should be asked demonstrate unequivocally
that they are alive. The United States should sic the White House
press corps on the Taliban spokesman until we get some answers.
If bin Laden
and Omar are alive, let them show themselves, preferably in an open
area away from hospitals and mosques, on a clear day. Just stay
there until we can confirm it.
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