ohn Zogby is president of Zogby International, based in upstate New York. His website can be found at www.zogby.com.

National Review: Does Rudy Guiliani need to drop out for the good of his party?

John Zogby: No. There has not been a reporter courageous enough to give my quote to his editor: "The voters aren’t going to care a rat’s ass about this." Where’s Woodward and Bernstein’s spirit here?

Basically, I think this amounts to a net nothing in the race and I’ll tell you why.

NR: "This" being the separation issue?

Zogby: Yes, this being the Giuliani/Hanover soap opera. Basically, 1) the playbook was redefined by Bill Clinton. Voters may have cared about Bill Clinton’s behavior, but they compartmentalized his behavior versus his performance or whether or not they’d vote for him. 2) Who’s going to raise the issue of Giuliani’s marriage in the campaign? Hillary? I don’t think so.

NR: So, in terms of public opinion, people aren’t going to look at this as Rudy being Bill in this race/relationship — the one who cheated?

Zogby: Yeah, maybe. Frankly, even though my polls tell me that if Bill Clinton ran again he wouldn’t be reelected, I think if he went out and campaigned – if, instead of a hypothetical, it became real -- I think Bill Clinton would win. The voters like him. In Rudy’s case, what you see is what you get. Nobody ever put Rudy and "nice guy" together in the same sentence. You kind of know what you’re getting there and New York City elected him twice. They wouldn’t this time, but the dynamic of the state is that the very people who might care the most about this issue — say, those on the more or most conservative side, perhaps those who are conservative Catholics or born-again — are going to sit down and look at this and say, "Yeah, but we hate Hillary even more."

NR: Were some of those people you just talked about going to vote for the Conservative party candidate, rather than Giuliani, though?

Zogby: I’m going to do a poll on this in the very near future. I’m going to poll Conservatives and Liberals. And I have a hunch that Conservatives want to beat Hillary.

NR: So is the life issue secondary in this race?

Zogby: You are going to see the most ardent pro-lifers vote Right-to-Life or Conservative as they often do in other races. But when all is said and done, I think you’re going to have the Green party fielding its own candidate, drawing votes away from Hillary. In the Hillary/Rudy race, with the Hillary/Rudy dynamic, this doesn’t move voters one inch, one way or the other.

NR: How about cancer? Has Giuliani’s prostate cancer been an issue with voters?

Zogby: Not yet. We did a poll shortly after he announced that he had prostate cancer. Seventy percent said that they think that he should still run, and over 80 percent said that they thought that he would still be a strong candidate.

NR: This all having been said, the fact that this is going to play out on the cover of the New York Post for a long while, is that going to cause the Republican party to ask Giuliani not to run?

Zogby: I don’t think so. I think this race is frozen. It’s tied, Rudy versus Hillary. Unless I’m way off on this, I think it’s going to continue to be tied, Rudy versus Hillary. Each side brings its own people who love them and hate them. The only thing I think will move voters, and might cause Republicans to change their minds about Rudy, is if Donna Hanover appears with a black eye. And I mean that seriously — if there’s documentation that we should really care about the state of Rudy’s marriage. But he’s never pretended about the state of the marriage. She never has. Yesterday, Rudy’s announcement was merely a formality when everybody knew already. And Donna’s announcement was basically "same-old, same-old." It was well-reported that Rudy was having an affair and it’s been well-reported that Donna Hanover is very independent-minded and has been hurt by this.

NR: If, for instance — God forbid — he turns out to be very ill and can’t run or if he decides not to run for other reasons, who polls well as the other alternative?

Zogby: George Pataki.

NR: Now, is there any reason to believe that he will run — he says he won’t?

Zogby: Yeah. He’s bored with being governor. Running for a third term isn’t very magical because, even if he’s reelected, there’s got to be a recession sooner or later. And he’s bored with the Albany, N.Y., routine. So, this gives him the national spotlight that he’s looking for.

NR: What about congressman Rick Lazio?

Zogby: Lazio will certainly try very hard, but if Lazio doesn’t get the support of Pataki then there is no Lazio.

NR: What about a surprise like Peter King?

Zogby: That’s not going to happen, no. Although, I’ll tell you, we matched all of those people — not Peter King — but we matched Sue Kelly, Vito Fossella, Joe Bruno against Hillary and Hillary, even among those completely unknown, couldn’t poll 50 percent. So, I think the race is frozen with each candidate somewhere in the 40’s. Third-party candidates mess things up on both sides. Too close to call, whether it’s Rudy Giuliani, George Pataki, or Rick Lazio.

NR: One last question about the presidential race. You mentioned that if Bill Clinton were to run today, your polling shows that he would not win. Does that translate to Al Gore?

Zogby: It does. Voters are telling us that they want change. Polling says that Clinton would not win. I thought that if he went out and campaigned, he could win because he’s such a good campaigner. I think that there is indeed a phenomenon of Clinton fatigue and it affects Gore probably more than it affects Clinton.

NR: So, Gore should be concerned about the L. A. Times poll that has him 8 points behind?

Zogby: He should be extremely concerned about that. It’s early. Anything can happen.

NR: From your polling can you tell what he could do to change that?

Zogby: I think voters need to have a comfort level with Al Gore. The only thing he could certainly do is address issues. Voters are more aligned with the Democrats on issues than they are with the Republicans. That’s number one. But number two, he has to make them feel comfortable about himself. That he’s somebody with compassion and that he is somebody who is not so single-minded and dogged in his desire to be president that he’s willing to change his spots.