Days of Our Globe
A geopolitical soap opera.

Januray 2, 2002 8:30 a.m.

ystified by the complexities of international relations? Anxious to shine over the dinner party by demonstrating an easy grasp of the relations between Russia, the European Union, and the U.S.? Nothing simpler. Think of them as a soap opera in which bisexual Natasha wants to break up Sam and Marianne — but is unsure which of them to pursue if she succeeds. Natasha had long intended to attach herself to the Eurotrash babe, Marianne. Their relationship would be a lesbian one, of course, since both of them have feminine nurturing views that favor interventionist government and the welfare state. But lately Natasha has begun to suspect that Marianne could never give her the protection she needs in a dangerous neighborhood inhabited by Triad gangs and colorful ethnic thugs.

Cowboy Sam would be the perfect protector, having just scored a knockout victory over a local bully (who, as mother always said, turned out to be a coward after all.) But Sam's trouble is that he is slightly drunk on victory, is inclined to think he doesn't need the love and support of anyone else, and refuses to make those little gestures (holding off from missile defense, shelling out money uncomplainingly) that win a maiden's heart.

What's a girl to do?

At present Mr. Putin seems to have decided on Natasha's behalf to attach himself to Sam despite the latter's current brashness. He plainly calculates, however, that he can always change his mind if the situation changes — if, that is, Marianne shows any sign of going down to the gym, losing some of that surplus weight, putting on a few attractive muscles around the upper arms, and of course breaking up with Sam.

For her part, Marianne is perpetually flirtatious, ogling Natasha outrageously and hinting that Sam doesn't really understand either of them. At the same time Marianne tells Sam she wants her independence and even makes flighty little gestures in that direction, joining the other girls in Neighborhood Watch. But she refuses to do anything realistic to keep the muggers at bay, such as buying bullets for her new handbag handgun — and whenever she hears mysterious sounds in the night (or sees a spider in the bath), she telephones for Sam to come round.

Sam is tempted to wash his hands of both them and send off for one of those mail-order Asian brides. And we can all understand how he feels. Nonetheless, the long-term interest of the U.S. is in consolidating an Atlantic relationship in which America remains the dominant power in a united West. That means putting up with a great deal of Euro-grumbling. But the prize is a historically great one. For if Western unity is maintained, the sheer force of political gravity will eventually pull Russia into joining NATO and other Atlantic institutions. Our old adversaries would then become part of a U.S.-led Western coalition that could more or less permanently exercise the main influence in world politics and international institutions.

That would be a highly desirable outcome because Western influence would generally be exercised in favor of democracy, freedom, human rights, and economic policies that promote prosperity. But it cannot be achieved overnight.

Indeed, it cannot happen until Russia unmistakably establishes its democratic and free-market credentials as all other candidates for NATO membership have done. Here Mr. Putin's recent curbing of press freedom shows that Russia still has a long way to go. Additionally, unlike other candidates for NATO membership, Russia must meet another exacting test: It must show it has abandoned any neo-imperialist nostalgia for its rule over "near-neighborhood" countries.

These would once have been either miracles or fantasies. They can be reality in the next few decades, however, if the West remains united and determined — and if Western leaders such as Bush and Blair hold the Russians to high standards on such matters as democratization and the rule of law. And the war on terrorism has been a catalyst accelerating the speed with which Russia might be acceptable in the West and, in particular, to its former European satellites now in NATO.

The only real obstacle to this highly desirable future is the possibility that the European Union will develop into a rival superpower with an independent military capability and a common foreign policy. If that were to happen, it would gradually but inevitably divide the West and restrict the ability of transatlantic allies such as Britain and Poland to support U.S. policy against a narrowly European consensus.

That in turn would reduce the force of gravity drawing Russia into the Western orbit — and thus into adopting the constitutional liberal institutions of freedom and democracy. Worse, it would even encourage Russia to ally itself with this new "Europe" in order to contest the "hegemony" of the U.S. Natasha would seek to seduce Marianne into setting up a joint ménage in their "Common European Home" — leaving Sam out in the cold.

No doubt that would not pose any immediate threat to American security. But it would point to an unstable future of competing regional power "blocs" in which the U.S. would be harried and obstructed by nations that now generally join their interests with ours to promote a safer and more prosperous world. The world would become a more dangerous place — for no better reason than that some European politicians want to establish a militarily needless and pointless Euro-force as the symbol of some hypothetical future European nation. It is far more irresponsibly "unilateralist" than anything done by the Bush administration.

Next Week: As the World Turns — the Kyoto Treaty on Global Warning for Beginners.