Expanding NATO’s Reach
A point W. should bear in mind.

Mr. O’Sullivan is also editor of United Press International.
May 1, 2001 12:20 p.m.

s George W. Bush hit the 100 days mark in the White House, he is doing pretty well: His poll ratings are high compared to Bill Clinton's at this point in his presidency, and the influential transatlantic Economist magazine has just rebuked media, Democrat, and European critics of his leadership for exaggerating both his conservatism and his lack of competence.

Western European leaders in particular have been inclined to sneer at Bush's supposed lack of sophistication in foreign affairs. They cherish the notion of unifying Europe's defense with a Rapid Reaction Force that would be independent of NATO and the United States; they dislike the proposal for an American system of missile defense; they are nervous of expanding NATO (and thus of offending Russia) further, and they worry that the White House does not pay sufficient regard to their concerns.

Interestingly, however, their disdain is not shared by the leaders of Eastern and Central Europe. For obvious historical reasons, they are more nervous of Russia and more determined to safeguard America's military presence in Europe.

Two prime ministers arrived in Washington in the past week — Bulgaria's Ivan Kostov and Hungary's Viktor Orban — to lobby for, among other aims, the further expansion of NATO eastward. Nine nations are seeking entry at next year's NATO summit in Prague.

Hungary is already a NATO member; Bulgaria is one of the stronger candidates for NATO membership, and both governments took considerable domestic political risks to assist NATO in the Kosovo conflict.

Significantly, both support the admission of all nine NATO applicants. Their enthusiasm for a wider NATO is very easy to understand. As Kostov says, the promise of NATO expansion to Eastern Europe and the Balkans provides the best basis for the peaceful settlement of the ethnic disputes that still obstruct the region's stability and future prosperity. Once the Americans are included in any grouping like NATO, every other member ceases to fear his neighbor. It is fear that promotes instability — and security that underpins prosperity.

Hence, as Orban is expected to tell the New Atlantic Initiative (which is tonight making him the first recipient of its Freedom Award), the 1989 expansion of NATO has already created a zone of stability and prosperity in central Europe.

What is worrying is that increasingly the West Europeans would like NATO to pull up the drawbridge and keep eastern Europe out of the military club as well as the economic one — or admit two new members at most.

They claim to fear Russia's reaction — not unreasonable since the Russians are indeed strongly opposed. Yet there is more to it than that. NATO has greatly benifitted Russia by removing any rational fear of a German attack. And the Europeans know that well. Their real reason for keeping eastern Europe at arm's length may be that they fear its entry would strengthen America in transatlantic debates on a range of issues.

East Europeans are more wary of Russia than are France and Germany; they are less hostile toward Bush's plans for missile defense, and they share London's view that any separate European defense force should be subordinate to NATO rather than wholly independent.

In short, although they are committed to "building Europe," they also support the construction of a new Atlantic architecture that would keep America in Europe as the leader of the alliance indefinitely.

Bush should pay attention: The leaders of mitteleuropa are now among his closest allies in alliance politics. Europeans might also note that Bush at the end of his 100 days is doing very well indeed by one historic comparison. Napoleon Bonaparte (who began the whole "100 days" exercise) ended his own 100 days by being exiled to St. Helena after his attempt to unify Europe ended in defeat at the hands of the then leading "Anglo-Saxon" power.

Just a point to bear in mind.

This originally appeared in the Chicago Sun-Times.