Kerry Spot    [ jim geraghty reporting ]
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Kerry campaigns at the Vietnam memorial in Washington, D.C., May 31, 2004.

If Memorial Day weekend was any indication, veterans have become the media's "soccer moms" of the moment — that is, a trendy demographic that is declared "vital to winning the White House."

Of course, in post-Election 2000 America, almost any demographic outside of fantastically wealthy Pennsylvania ketchup heiresses could be considered vital. NASCAR dads, blacks, Hispanics, "exurbanites" — every pollster worth his salt has identified some allegedly volatile constituency.

The Pittsburgh Post Gazette summed up the conventional wisdom well this weekend, declaring, "The battle for veterans hearts and minds is likely to be crucial given this year's closely divided electorate. But it also serves as a metaphor for the larger national security issues paramount in the minds of all voters in a time of war and terrorism."

But coverage of Kerry's vet offensive could use a little more skepticism. For starters, this isn't a swing group, it's a fairly strongly leaning Republican one, both historically and in recent poll data.

Buried deep inside the internals of a CBS poll released last week was the fact that veterans prefer Bush over Kerry by 13 points — 54 to 41 percent. A Gallup poll conducted May 7-9, found that a subsample of veterans favored the president 51 percent to 46 percent, while Bush trailed overall.

Lee Harris, spokesman for the American Legion, told Fox News that, "there is a large flow of e-mails [from our members]. So far every one of them is wanting us to come out publicly and declare that John Kerry is not fit for service. Right now, the vocal people are very upset with the Kerry record of 30 years ago, [particularly about the] testimony to Congress on atrocities that are unsubstantiated."

Kerry's courtship of the veteran vote has gone beyond constant references to his own military service. Since he launched his campaign, the Massachusetts senator has charged that Bush is shortchanging veterans.

"This White House regularly breaks its promises to America's veterans," Kerry spokesman Phil Singer has said. "On the campaign trail, George Bush talks about the need to improve programs like veteran's health care, but now we know that his administration's plans would cut over $900 million from the Veterans budget in 2006. Veterans across this country deserve better. John Kerry will never break America's commitment to those who serve or turn his back on America's veterans."

The Bush team says that since 2001, Department of Veterans Affairs funding has grown 40 percent, nearly 200 new community clinics have been opened and disability claims are being processed 30 percent faster. And in his proposed fiscal year 2005 budget, Bush included a $519 million or 1.8 percent increase for the VA.

This particular argument was reinforced last week as the Kerry and Bush campaign brought out dueling soldiers to vouch for the candidates' vet-friendly bona fides.

Joseph Lesniewski, one of the original "Band of Brothers" from the "Easy Company" of the 101st Airborne Division, joined Kerry at the official opening of the WWII memorial.

Speaking about his own generation of soldiers, Lesniewski said, "We [World War II veterans] are more patriotic than anybody ever was. I was in combat for 235 days — you don't have to tell me about patriotism. I believe George Bush is messing things up with this war, the economy and with America's veterans."

How does one refute criticism from a hero? With another hero; the Bush campaign touted the endorsement of Maj. Dick Winters commander of Easy Company, 2nd Battalion, 101st Airborne Division during World War II.

"The President's actions on behalf of our servicemen and women show his deep respect for all who wear the uniforms of our armed forces," Winters said. "President Bush has overseen a 21 percent increase in military pay since taking office and has ensured that our troops in the field have what they need to win the War on Terror. Funding for VA medical care has increased by over 40 percent during the President's term, facilitating the treatment of one million additional veterans. President Bush has been a great friend to the greatest generation."

A Feb. 27 Kerry ad featured a graphic saying: "200,000 veterans cut off from health system." But as watchdog group FactCheck.org has pointed out, the ranks of veterans drawing benefits during the Bush administration has increased by more than one million, and that the ad is referring to a proposal in Bush's budget that was never enacted.

Kerry is getting good mileage out of having his boat mates and Vietnam veteran and former Georgia Sen. Max Cleland on the campaign trail with him. But Bush has the endorsement of Rolling Thunder, the POW/MIA biker group which has 70 chapters and more than 7,000 members throughout the United States and abroad. And Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, a group of more than 220 Swift Boat veterans from the unit in which John Kerry served, continues to call the Democratic nominee unfit to be commander in chief.

For example, the Swift Boat Veterans' current dispute with the Kerry campaign is the use of a photo in national campaign ads that contains 20 officers, including Kerry. Eleven of those men signed a letter condemning Kerry yet their image is being widely used in his own campaign. According to the group, two other men in the photo are deceased and four do not wish to be involved in Kerry's campaign; only two of the 20 are believed to support Kerry.

Time will tell if Kerry can really make inroads with the veteran vote. But even if the poll numbers begin to shift in his direction, expect to hear a lot more about Kerry's medal-tossing, his unverified charges of war crimes, etc. Come to think of it, Kerry strategists probably should ask themselves: Is pursuing this Republican-leaning 13 percent of the voting population worth bringing those issues back to the forefront?