Kerry Spot    [ jim geraghty reporting ]
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Kerry-veep short-lister Gov. Tom Vilsack of Iowa.

Bob Novak wrote last week that "the current buzz in the national capital's high-level Democratic circles has projected that Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, previously considered a dark horse as John Kerry's running mate, is now the leading prospect."

Only Vilsack, Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri, and Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina are known to be on the Kerry short list, subject to background checks that look deeper than a colonoscopy. One of Vilsack's aides confided to the Los Angeles Times that he thought that the selection had narrowed to his boss and Edwards.

Democrats say Vilsack would make a bright and articulate spokesman, a fresh face to inspire some media buzz, and that he has a dramatic biography: orphaned at birth, adopted as an infant by a well-to-do Pittsburgh couple, overcame physical abuse by his alcoholic mother to build a successful career in law and politics.

But it's tough to get around the fact that of all the Democrats Kerry could pick as his running mate, Vilsack does the least to help him. In fact, his anonymity hurts Kerry. Here are seven reasons Vilsack is a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad choice. (And thus, Bush backers should be hoping he's the man.)

1. "WHO THE HECK IS TOM VILSACK?"
Vilsack may be the nicest guy this side of Tom Hanks, but the above question would going to be the most common instant reaction to the news of his selection. His national name recognition is probably in the single digits. A FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll taken from June 8-9, found Vilsack the preferred running mate of 2 percent of registered voters, 3 percent of a Democratic subsample. His number jumped to 4 percent when Hillary is taken off the list of options. The poll also found a Bush/Cheney ticket beats Kerry/Vilsack nationally 47 to 43 with Nader getting 7. With Edwards, Kerry leads 47 to 44.

It will be a smack in the face of Edwards, Gephardt, and every other prominent Democrat if John Kerry prefers the little-known governor with six years' executive experience to their prominence and experience. There are 49 Democratic senators, each one of whom looks in the mirror and sees a future president. If Kerry makes some recognizable, safe pick, like Edwards, the also-rans could console themselves, "Well, Kerry wanted a southerner, and Edwards had already done pretty well in the primaries, so I guess if that's your criteria, he's the best choice." However, if Vilsack gets the nod, every Democratic senator, governor, former Clinton official, and retired general will be shaking their head and muttering, "John Kerry thinks that Iowa yokel is a better choice to be a heartbeat away from the presidency than ME?"

2. WHAT IT WILL SAY ABOUT KERRY'S THIN SKIN
With Dick Cheney, Joe Lieberman, Jack Kemp, and Al Gore, the theme of recent veep picks has been, "first, do no harm." Vilsack will do harm. Kerry's decision to pass over the most popular second banana in his party, Edwards, will be widely, and probably accurately, interpreted that Kerry couldn't stand a running mate who would overshadow him.

During the primary, Mickey Kaus outlined how Kerry's Faberge ego, among other factors, would veto an Edwards pick: "Kerry, if he wins, is unlikely to pick Edwards because a) Kerry's a vain man and won't want a running mate the press will continually say is a better speaker and campaigner than he is; and b) like virtually all candidates, Kerry will want a #2 who can go negative on the opposing party while he remains above the fray. But that's exactly what Edwards has shown he can't or won't do, for fear of blemishing his goody-goody image. (See Lieberman, Joe, 2000 general election.)... Update: also c) [I] hear semi-reliably that Kerry's polling shows that Edwards on the ticket doesn't win any states for Kerry, even in the South....

The Boston Globe alluded to the lingering bad blood recently: "During the primaries, Kerry and Edwards had a prickly relationship. Kerry openly questioned Edwards's electability, once saying he could not even carry his home state of North Carolina. The veteran senator also questioned the former trial lawyer's pursuit of the presidency after less than one term in elective office. 'And people call me ambitious?' a Globe reporter once overheard Kerry asking an aide."

At the Wisconsin debate, after Kerry spoke about his views on the Iraq war, Edwards zinged, "That's the longest answer I ever heard to a yes-or-no question." According to several media accounts, Kerry expressed irritation about Edwards' shot on him, and later "returned the favor," mocking a lengthy Edwards answer at the next debate in California.

3. "PAYBACK"
Vilsack himself did not endorse any Democratic candidate this year. But days before the caucuses, Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack strode onto the snowy steps of the state capitol in Des Moines and said she "trusted Kerry to keep America safe." The endorsement was widely seen in Iowa as helping the Massachusetts senator gain momentum, overtake Gephardt and Howard Dean, and win the state.

Martin Peretz writes in this week's issue The New Republic, "I can hear the slogan: 'Vilsack, Payback.'"

The vice-presidential selection is not a thank-you note. It is the selection of the presidential understudy, who would take over as commander-in-chief of the world's most powerful armed forces in a continuing war against al Qaeda if, Kerry suddenly could not perform his duties.

While it's a nice gesture for Kerry to show appreciation for the figures who helped him get the nomination, picking Vilsack would send the message Kerry's focus is on the past, not the future.

4. WHAT'S THE MESSAGE?
Every running-mate selection sends a message from the nominee to the electorate. Clinton's message when he picked Al Gore: "We're a young, baby-boomer, southern, New Democrat ticket." Gore's Lieberman message: "I'm my own man and a little daring, choosing the first Jewish running mate and a fairly conservative member of my party." Bush's message when he picked Cheney: "I'm trustworthy and reliable. The grownups are back in town."

Kerry's Vilsack message: "Remember when I won Iowa? What a great night. Good times."

Other choices had much better messages. Picking Robert Rubin? "Wall Street, help is on the way." Picking Evah Bayh? "We're trustworthy, centrist Democrats, and we're going to pick off Indiana." Picking Ret. Gen. Anthony Zinni? "We're no unreliable doves, we're tested Vietnam Vets." Bob Graham? "Sorry, Jeb, Florida's in our pocket."

5. DID SOMEBODY MENTION VIETNAM?
A prominent GOP official contends that Vilsack undermines Kerry's Vietnam themes.

"You watch Kerry every day, you see every speech and news release, and I don't know how he doesn't pick a combat veteran with his rhetoric," the GOP source said. "Where was Vilsack during Vietnam? Did he have deferments? It undercuts Kerry's biggest campaign theme, and Kerry put himself in his position. He was right in 1992 [when he said military service is not a prerequisite for the presidency], but now he and [Former Georgia Sen.] Max Cleland are disparaging anyone who didn't serve, anyone who was in the National Guard."

Vilsack has no record of military service.

In May, Vilsack denied a Des Moines Register request for copies of his Selective Service record. Aides told the paper he received a student deferment while attending college in upstate New York. After his graduation in 1972, he was issued a draft lottery number, which was never called.

Of course, back in June 2001, Kerry called Vilsack "a fellow Vietnam veteran." Later, he corrected himself, saying he had mixed up the governor with Rep. Leonard Boswell (D., Iowa), a decorated Vietnam veteran.

6. GEOGRAPHY
Iowa. Seven electoral votes. Gore won them, 638,517 to 634,373, so let's give Vilsack credit for being a selection that would probably prevent a light blue state from turning light red. Of course, that's not a guarantee. According to a Survey USA poll in the state, Kerry leads Bush in Iowa right now 48 to 45. But when asked whether they prefer the Republican ticket of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney to a Democratic ticket of John Kerry and Tom Vilsack, the numbers reverse and Bush wins, 48 to 45.

Despite the hopes of some optimistic Democrats, there is little evidence that Vilsack's midwestern style will bring over Missouri — Gephardt would be a better choice to do that.

7. WHAT A LETDOWN!
Every remaining Democratic contender is already dealing with the "Well, he's no John McCain" disappointment. Vilsack would get, "He's not even John Edwards."

A GOP strategist puts it simply: "For any Democratic vice-presidential candidate, your first question is, 'since John Kerry asked John McCain to be his running mate seven times, is the new guy the second choice or the eighth choice?"