Kerry Spot    [ jim geraghty reporting ]
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Kerry with Gary Hart at a rally in Denver, June 21, 2004.

A quick study of the calendar for the upcoming months reveals the presidential campaign is in its last slow month, and is rapidly approaching a roller-coaster ride of big events that will run up to Election Day.

Assume for a moment that, as reported, Kerry will wait until a week before the convention to announce his running mate — a strategy that makes sense, as it draws out the "suspense" and gives reporters something to write about.

The day the Democratic convention begins, July 26, the final report is due from the 9/11 Commission. They may release it earlier, of course, and the first media accounts indicate that the report is tough on the FBI and intelligence agencies, but not the Clinton or Bush administration. That is likely to dominate news coverage for a few days when it is released.

From July 26-29, Kerry and his running mate have a convention, give speeches, and presumably get a bump in the polls. But the post-convention euphoria will probably be Kerry's last appearance in the national spotlight for a month and a half.

From Aug. 14 through the 29th is the Summer Olympic Games in Athens, Greece. The Olympics are usually dramatic, but this year add the heightened terror threat. In addition to discussions of gold medal winners and human-interest profiles, there will be a lot of talk about al Qaeda, NATO security efforts, whether American athletes make themselves targets by waving the flag, etc. Also, the return of Iraqi athletes to the games, no longer fearing beatings from Uday Hussein, should make a feel-good story more interesting than anything Bush or Kerry will be saying in their stump speeches.

The day after the Olympic closing ceremonies, the Republican National Convention begins in New York City, running until Thursday, Sept. 2. Expect Bush to get a bump at a convention featuring a lot of Rudy Giuliani, Arnold Schwarzenegger, a tribute to Reagan, etc. Post-convention talk will dominate the Sunday shows, leading into the following week's three-year anniversary of 9/11. Like this week, it will be a time for remembrance, not politics, and campaigning will probably stop for several days.

This takes us to early to mid-September, six weeks to Election Day. Then the candidates get just under three weeks of general campaigning before the debates. Presuming Bush and Kerry (and Nader?) follow the usual standards of three presidential debates and one vice-presidential debate, the tentative debates are Sept. 30, Oct. 5, Oct. 8 (vice presidential), and Oct. 13.

Also worth noting: On October 5, the Major League Baseball playoffs begin. That's a potential ratings challenge! October 12 is the expected starting date League Championship series.

And then Election Day is November 2.

What does all this mean? Well, when the Democratic primary ended in March, John Kerry looked like Hercules. He had crushed his primary opponents, with Edwards, Clark, and Dean only able to win one state apiece.

Since then, he's still doing well in national polls for a challenger, but his campaign has been dogged by the perception that he's doing well because Democrats hate Bush, not because many people particularly like him. The Bush campaign has hammered him with negative ads, and most voters have only a vague sense of connection to him. All of this has occurred as Bush has had a terrible couple of months — the Abu Ghraib prison scandal, more casualties in Iraq, the Richard Clarke book, high gas prices, Spain pulling out of the Iraq Coalition, allegations Chalabi was spying for Iran, etc.

The polls indicate voters are unsettled and aren't convinced Bush has the right plans for Iraq anymore. But Kerry hasn't closed the deal, and still needs to boost his positives — to show he's a likeable, warm, decisive leader that the American people will want on their television screens for the next four years.

Despite a busy campaign schedule, Kerry hasn't been able to do that so far. Speeches at universities, airports, and community centers, announcing the policy proposal of the day are fine — that's what a candidate does during this part of the campaign — but they're not breaking through the daily drone of Iraq, Iraq, Scott Petersen, Iraq, Michael Jackson, Iraq, Kobe Bryant, and Iraq. The casual, undecided, independent voter who isn't following the campaign closely probably hasn't heard much about Kerry since the end of the primaries.

The busy schedule suggests that Kerry will only have a few opportunities to really connect with large numbers of attentive voters: announcing his veep pick, his convention address, and the debates.