Kerry Spot    [ jim geraghty reporting ]
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THE REAL DEAL@BEANTOWN [07/26 07:20 AM]


John Kerry at Kennedy Space Center. Remind you of another Mass. liberal in a tank?

The Democrats' mission for this year's convention can be found in two astounding numbers from the New York Times poll conducted in the middle of July: First, 29 percent of respondents said they did not know enough about John Kerry to have an opinion. Then, 39 percent said they had not heard enough about John Edwards to have an opinion.

It's nice for a challenger to have a lead that around the margin of error, as Kerry does, but when such a large segment of the potential voters don't know enough about you to have an opinion, that's a problem.

If you're reading National Review Online, or watching Fahrenheit 9/11, or listening to Rush or Air America, chances are you're one of the 60-70 percent who have an opinion on these guys. But that 30-40 percent is floating around out there, possibly voting this year, possibly not, blissfully ignoring the newspapers, news magazines, Internet, talk radio, network news, and cable news networks.

Kerry would prefer to enter the fall with a lead than in a tie, so he's got to begin attracting the attention of those tuned-out, disinterested voters and bringing them onto his bandwagon.

Which is why Kerry got the shaft when the networks' decided to minimally cover the conventions. The eight or so hours of coverage over four nights that each party got in 2000 has been dramatically scaled back, so NBC can show more contestants eating worms on and sitcom reruns. Political leaders don't get many chances to command the attention of almost all of the electorate, and until recently, the conventions were one of those rare chances. Now, the networks have decided to give Kerry & co. and Bush and co. a measly three hours over three nights each to make their case.

The minimal-coverage decision doesn't hurt the president quite as much, because after nearly four extraordinarily busy years (remember when some people thought he would be a "caretaker" president with modest goals?), the public pretty much knows what it thinks of him.

Besides, days after the president speaks in New York City for the GOP convention, it will be the third anniversary of 9/11, which is likely to put Bush back onto the national stage again. Those ceremonies, remembrances, memorial events (and yes, probably discussion of the likelihood of another attack) will put Bush front and center before that disengaged 30 to 40 percent, on a nonpartisan issue, where his with-us-or-against-us rhetoric is strongest.

So Kerry, more than anyone, needed those extra hours of prime-time coverage, particularly to have his surrogates talk about how great the Democratic candidate is. And while we political geeks may snicker at the policy-free stories of how surprisingly...human the nominee can be, the stories tend to work.

Think back to 2000, when Al Gore faced a similar challenge to Kerry — show the world he isn't a stiff, boring, droning, typical gray-suited politician, who had long ago had his traces of humor, likeability, and humanity assimilated into inside-the-Beltway Washington-speak.

Step one: One of Gore's three nominating speeches came from Hollywood actor Tommy Lee Jones, who made his college roommate sound like a wild and crazy fun guy. He said once neither of them could make it home for Thanksgiving, "so we made a fire in the venerable old fireplace in our room, wrapped a big turkey in a couple of rolls of tin foil, and roasted it right there in our dorm." Tipper Gore, he said, could testify that was "some of the most ambitious cooking Al has done since then." He talked about shooting pool, shooting at tin cans, and going "hunting through the woods with coon dogs in the middle of the night."

That speech certainly helped show a side of Gore no one had heard much about, and having it delivered in the Texas twang of the guy who chased Richard Kimble in The Fugitive didn't hurt.

Then there was, "The Kiss."

Thirdly, Gore embraced the Bob Shrum populist theme of, "I will fight for you against the powerful interests...." It was a fascinating break from the sunny optimism of Clinton. Still, Gore came out of Los Angeles with momentum, message, and poll numbers bouncing up.

Gore's experience in 2000 and Bob Dole's in 1996 suggest even the driest, least charismatic, and most dour candidates can have a successful convention. Only a major screw-up could cause any real heartburn for Democrats. Something like Ted Kennedy's criticism of George H.W. Bush in 1988, (near the pinnacle of Kennedy's wild drinking years) when his refrain was, "Where was George?"

The answer, from some wags at the GOP convention, was "at home, sober, in bed with his own wife."

But it's not like Ted Kennedy's giving a major address at this year's conv —

Oops.

Kerry Waffles

· Yasser Arafat
· Presidential Experience
· Israel's Security Wall
· SUVs
· Criticizing the President During War
· His Vietnam Medals
· Cuban Embargo
· Abortion Litmus Test for Judges
· No Child Left Behind
· "Gay Marriage"
· Capital Punishment for Terrorists
· The Patriot Act
· The Iraq War: Funding
· The Iraq War: Authorization

All Kerry Waffles

 

Kerry vs. NR

· Education
· Congressional Record
· Gasoline Prices
· Misery Index
· Vietnam