Kerry Spot    [ jim geraghty reporting ]
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Teresa "Four More Years of Hell" Kerry and husband in Beloit, Wis., August 3, 2004.

Boston, Mass. — John Kerry may go out there and give the speech of his life tonight.

Or he may bomb.

Or, most likely, something in between. Having said that, there are a few ominous signs for the Kerry camp:

Length: A New York Times report puts the length at 50 to 55 minutes. It's unclear whether that includes time for applause; the delegates are applauding so often it seems to punctuate every sentence.

Gore's speech in 2000 clocked in at 51 minutes; Bush's was 52 minutes. Dick Cheney gave a 33-minute speech, as did John Edwards last night. Bill Clinton, a smooth speaker, spoke for 27 minutes Monday night, 42 minutes in 2000; 66 minutes in 1996; and 53 minutes in 1992.

Maybe there is a segment of the audience that loves hearing Kerry speak. But many others, if informed that they had a year to live, might choose to spend it listening to John Kerry speeches, because that time period would feel like five years. How will Americans react to 55 minutes of Kerry?

On Monday, Bill Clinton stuck the landing of his Olympic performance by finishing his speech at exactly 11 P.M., letting the networks switch over to the local news on time, and not giving the network talking heads any time to dissect it or criticize it. It appears Kerry is scheduled to speak from 10:05 or 10:10 to 11. If Kerry runs over, it won't be the end of the world for his campaign.

But a speech that drags on and on could bring comparisons to Clinton's first convention address, in 1988, when his speech introducing Michael Dukakis, droned on so long that the crowd roared when he said, "In closing...." That speech, despite its reputation for legendary long-windedness, actually lasted only 32 minutes. He ignored flashing red lights. He ignored a nudge from House Speaker Jim Wright. He ignored impatient shouts from the floor — "We want Mike!" and "Wrap it up!"

Content: If Kerry said, "A Kerry administration will bring the troops home from Iraq as soon as possible," a majority of the delegates, and a chunk of the nation, would applaud wildly. If Kerry said, "In a Kerry administration, our troops aren't leaving until the insurgents are crushed and Iraq is stable, democratic and free," the delegates would applaud politely and much of the nation would applaud wildly at home.

Tonight, Kerry will say neither.

Ron Brownstein of the Los Angeles Times has reported Kerry doesn't plan to unveil any new positions or views on Iraq. The Boston Globe says he doesn't plan to lay out an exit strategy on Iraq, or even lay out ambitious plans to replace the current approach to Iraq.

There are some indications the Kerry camp is already engaging in some preventative spinning. Advisers are telling the Baltimore Sun that even if the speech doesn't win rave reviews, that won't be a disaster because Kerry is in much better position than most challengers historically.

Delivery: Again, there are probably those who think John Kerry is great to listen to. And then there is David Brooks, who described his style in this manner:

Insects and other small life forms were perishing from boredom. Every time he'd launch into another Castroite soliloquy — on the history of the Middle East or the pay structure of the civil service — the audience would groan. I sat there listening to this drone, thinking, "If this man becomes president, I have to stop being a pundit because I know nothing about politics."

I didn't realize that tediousness is John Kerry's greatest trait. I didn't realize that a country barraged by a decade of Gingrich, impeachment, hanging chads and war may actually be looking for a Brezhnev to give it a break.

The Senate is like the "Top Gun" school for bores. It takes people who have certain natural facilities for pomposity and it turns them, by putting them through years of pointless droning, into weapons of mass narcolepsy.

Look up Kerry's radio address from Saturday. No banality is left behind. If a soporific sentiment is hit upon, it must be repeated. Kerry has the virtues of a fine bore. He is steady, persevering, deliberate, unflappable and safe.

Tom Brokaw told Hardball, "He's not going to change his personality DNA in the next 24 hours."

ABC's Claire Shipman reported Kerry's "aides are worried he spent too much time writing, not enough rehearsing. He's rehearsed very little with the teleprompter, very little with the speech coach."

Who knows? Maybe Kerry walks out to that podium and knocks it out of the park. Maybe all of these pre-speech rumors and rumblings are just nonsense. But if I were a Kerry strategist, I would prefer to hear that Kerry has a shorter speech, that spells out an Iraq policy so clear and direct that casual voters will be able to explain to their neighbor over the back fence, and that he had been rehearsing it before a live audience for days.