Kerry Spot    [ jim geraghty reporting ]
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So, how much is all this media focus on Dan Rather hurting the Bush in the presidential race?

Well, SurveyUSA has Bush head of Kerry, 49 to 45.

In New Jersey.

Is this possible? Well, according to Dales, Quinnipiac had Kerry by ten back on Aug. 23.

But Rasmussen had Kerry by 4 among 400 likely voters in Sept. 3. Rutgers/Eagleton had Kerry by two on Sept. 2. And Strategic Vision, a Republican pollster, had Kerry by three on September 12.

It will take another poll or two to confirm that Bush is ahead. But this last bunch of polls suggests its time to take New Jersey out of the “safe Kerry” pile and into the “toss up” pile.

UPDATE: What could be bigger than Kerry's lead evaporating in New Jersey? How about it crumbling in Illinois?

The turn in this election tide could set up a political stunner. Illinois is a Democratic powerhouse in national elections, and John Kerry does maintain a small lead in our exclusive CBS 2 poll, but President Bush appears to be gaining support among voters.

Illinois no longer looks like a sure thing for Democrat John Kerry. His once 13 percentage point lead is now down to four points. That's exactly our survey's margin of accuracy, meaning the contest could be a dead-heat.

[Posted 09/15 08:29 PM]