Kerry Spot    [ jim geraghty reporting ]
[ kerry spot home | archives | email ]

While all of us are focused on exposing Dan Rather as a blatantly dishonest hack, the polls are, by and large, falling apart for John Kerry.

We reported earlier that a poll has Bush up in New Jersey, down by only four in Illinois. Now we notice Bush is up 6 in Florida, up 4 in Nevada, tied in Minnesota, up 3 in Pennsylvania, Bush up by 2, 6, or 8 in Wisconsin. The three most recent Ohio polls have Bush up 12, 3, and 9.

This doesn't mean the election is over — not by a long shot.

The Democratic Party won't listen to the Kerry Spot. And really, what do I know? But here's a thought: John Kerry won't have a prayer of winning this race if the overwhelming message from the DNC, liberal columnists, the 527s, and his campaign is this "Operation Fortunate Son" stuff.

All of this National Guard stuff, coupled with the Kitty Kelley book, feels like an attempt to recreate the effect that Bush's "November Surprise" DUI revelation. But in that case, Bush was a relatively new figure on the national state, and a certain number of voters - perhaps four or five percent - felt betrayed by the out-of-the-blue unveiling of a very serious lapse in judgment. Those voters, wondering what else they didn't know about Bush, decided to pull the lever for safe, boring, predictable old Al Gore.

Actually, the Swift Boat Vets for Truth could be seen as a similar phenomenon. John Kerry is running on the national stage for the first time, introduces himself to the public at large, seems to be making an okay impression, talks a lot about the Vietnam war hero stuff...

... and then BOOM. A bunch of not-insane sounding guys who served with him say they couldn't stand him, and his stories like Christmas in Cambodia are made up. The voters wonder how much they can trust the keys of the presidency with the new guy.

Kerry's got to grab his party by the lapels and slap some sense into them. "I don't need more Bush-is-the-boogeyman scenarios!" he needs to tell them. "Start talking about me. Talk about my vision, my character, my qualities, my policies and ideas. I'm turning into an afterthought in my own campaign! It's not Bush versus Rather, or Bush versus Michael Moore, or Bush versus George Soros! It's Bush versus me. I mean, Jeez, not even that punk who writes the Kerry Spot writes much about me anymore!"

[Posted 09/16 12:34 AM]