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Kerry Spot [ jim geraghty reporting ]
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WHICH POLLSTERS WERE CLOSEST IN 2000?
Kerry Spot reader John went back into the Hotline and found their list of the final polls by various organizations.
The final result of the 2000 election: 48 percent for Gore, 48 percent for Bush, 4 percent other. Note that the DUI appeared to have a very late-breaking effect on Bush’s level of support.
Zogby underestimated Bush by 2, had Gore accurate.
Washington Post had Bush accurate, Gore underestimated by 3.
Pew underestimated Bush by 2; underestimated Gore by 5.
Newsweek underestimated Bush by 3; underestimated Gore by 5.
NBC/Wall Street Journal underestimated Bush by 1; underestimated Gore by 4.
Marist overestimated Bush by 1, underestimated Gore by 4.
Harris underestimated both Bush and Gore by one point.
Gallup had Bush accurate, Gore underestimated by 2.
Fox News underestimated both Bush and Gore by 5 percentage points each.
CBS News underestimated Bush by 4, Gore by 3.
Battleground overestimated Bush by 2, underestimated Gore by 3.
The raw data:
A rundown of every final national poll conducted since 10/31. ^ indicates totals included the allocation of undecideds. Order is Bush, Gore, Nader.
1 Battleground (11/5-6; 1,000 LVs; +/- 3%)^ 50 45 4
2 Bullseye (10/31-11/2, 11/5; +/- 3.1%) 45 42 4
1 CBS News (11/4-6; 806 LVs; +/- 3%) 44 45 4
1 Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-31; 881 DVs; +/- 3.1%) 45 45 5
2 Fox News (11/1-2; 1,000 LVs; +/- 3%) 43 43 3
1 Gallup (11/5-6; 2,350 LVs; +/- 2%)^ 48 46 4
1 Harris (11/3-5; 1,348 LVs; +/- 3%) 47 47 5
0 ICR (11/1-5; 1,141 LVs; +/- 3%) 46 44 7
2 Marist Inst. (11/1-2; 623 LVs; +/- 4.5%) 49 44 2
1 NBC/WSJ (11/3-5; 1,026 LVs; +/- 3%) 47 44 3
2 Newsweek (10/31-11/2; 808 LVs; +/- 4%) 45 43 5
0 Pew (11/1-4; 1,307 LVs; +/- 3%) 46 43 3
1 TIPP (11/4-6; 1,292 LVs; +/- 2.8%) 48 46 4
2 Wash. Post (11/4-6; 1,801 LVs; +/- 2%) 48 45 3
1 Zogby Int'l (11/5-6; 1,200 LVs; +/- 3%)^ 46 48 5
UPDATE: Gerry Daly observes that one pollster ‘called’ over 29% of the 2002 Senate and/or Gubenatorial races for the wrong candidate, despite polling more races than all but one other company.
The average for everybody else was getting about 13% of the races wrong, by comparison?
This pollster? Zogby.
Another pollster polled more 2002 races than any others, but only got one wrong. This pollster? Mason-Dixon.
[Posted 10/12 05:41 PM]
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