Kerry Spot    [ jim geraghty reporting ]
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I wish Bush supporters who feel pessimistic or jittery could listen to the phone conversation I just had with a longtime GOP operative. This gentleman, who has been in politics longer than I have been alive, states:

* If the Washington Post/ABC tracking poll gets any more separation in the coming days, and there’s one or two good state polls for Bush, this race is over.

* The University of Cincinnati poll showing Kerry up by 2 is “garbage.” It’s conducted over an entire week. The internals show Kerry leading among men 50 to 46 (what?) and leading 47 to 46 among women. Also note they have Kerry getting 95 percent of the African-American vote, when a national poll showed Bush getting 18 percent. Also note that Kerry leads among Democrats 88 to 7, independents 55 to 26, but still leads the overall poll by only two points.

* In any given cycle, the polls show about five or six GOP Senate candidates in competitive trailing who end up winning. This year, there are about six GOP Senate candidates leading in competitive races.

* In the past week or so, we’ve seen Team Kerry go after Mary Cheney; the candidate himself charge that Bush is going to bring back the draft; the citing of a disputed New York Times quote to allege that Bush is going to privatize Social Security; Kerry assert that if you get the flu this winter it’s George W. Bush’s fault; and that George W. Bush is lying when he says he wants the generals in the field to get what they need. (From the man who voted against the $87 billion!) What is this a sign of? Not a confident and aggressive campaign, but a desperate and flailing campaign.

The timing of the Social Security attacks were particularly baffling to this veteran of GOP campaigns. “Way too early,” he said. “If they did this the last weekend of the campaign, it would reach seniors, and the Bush folks wouldn’t have time to make a response. But instead they do it now.” The Bush team is responding already, and the attacks will be old news by the time Election Day rolls around.

Why would Team Kerry go so negative, so fast, so hard, and so outlandishly? They sensed a serious drop in the polls, this operative suspects. They expected to come roaring out of the debates, and instead, they’re acting as if things have really started to go south.

I don’t know if this operative is right about everything, but I sure as heck respect his instincts and his assessment.

[Posted 10/19 03:22 PM]