Kerry Spot    [ jim geraghty reporting ]
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At least three times in the last three days, I've gotten e-mails from various folks asking to hear if I've heard "the latest rumor - Bush is dropping out of [VITAL SWING STATE]."

Which state? Well, one day the hot rumor is Pennsylvania, the next it's New Hampshire, the next it's Wisconsin. Tomorrow it will probably be Texas. These are all states in which Bush has been ahead or trailing in the low single digits, but now we're supposed to believe General Rove has sounded the call to retreat in the middle of a successful fight.

Riiiiiiiight.

Folks, unless you hear it from a reputable source and it's confirmed by the campaign (and the ads are actually pulled), don't believe it. This goes for rumors about Kerry pulling out, too.

I increasingly suspect that the same genius strategists who thought there was serious momentum to be gained by spamming the post-debate online polls now think they can depress the other side by starting rumors that one candidate or the other is giving up.

This is not to say campaigns don't concede states. For example, on Sept. 23, CBS Marketwatch reported that the Kerry campaign opted to pull television advertisements in four states — Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and Missouri.

And my guess is, at some point, each campaign is going to have to concede a state or two. Keep an eye on what states the candidates and surrogates visit in the final days of the campaign - and which states don't get visits.

[Posted 10/19 04:54 PM]