Kerry Spot    [ jim geraghty reporting ]
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Some interesting blurbs from the subscription-only Hotline:

NBC's Russert: "Bill Clinton was written about as the first African American president. ... They're believe he can really re-energize the base. That's why he's going to Philadelphia if he's well enough. I look for Bill Clinton to play a really public role in this campaign before it's over" ("Today," 10/20).

"Re-energize"? I thought the Democratic base was more energized than ever before. I thought Bush-hatred had Democrats fired up like never before. Howard Dean said that the passion of his enthusiastic supporters were going to put him over the top in IOWA and NEW HAMPSHIRE and SOUTH CAROLINA and... oh, wait, that didn't really turn out the way he thought, did it?

CNN's Begala, on why Bush has doubled his approval rating among blacks: "African Americans are traditionally later deciding voters. So I guess if I'm working for John Kerry, I think there's a legitimate concern among African-American leaders that John Kerry doesn't have the same appeal there that Bill Clinton, did. Very few people do. So, they do have to do more. They do have to work harder" ("AC 260," 10/19).

Here is where Begala drives me nuts. Everything I've ever read suggests African-Americans are among the Democrats' most loyal voters, and that they're the opposite of "later deciding."

Wall Street Journal's Hunt writes in "Campaign Journal" that Clinton and some close advisers "had preferred the initial foray" be in AR. Strategist James Carville: "It would be stupid for him to be anywhere else first." Kerry strategists think that AR is a Bush satte "and that would be a wasted opportunity, although in John Zogby's state survy's for wsj.com this week," Bush had only 1-pt lead. Top Kerry aides hope Clinton might make appearances in FL or OH or "conceivably" NH or NV. An appearance in Philadelphia "is a little puzzling," as pA "is clearly trending" to the Dems' anyway (10/20).

Interesting. Do the Kerry folk know more than the Clintonites?

DNC chair Terry McAuliffe plans to travel over the next week with Revs. Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson (AP/USA Today, 10/20).

Ladies and gentlemen, I think this makes it official. The Democrats are worried about A) turnout in black communities and B) whether Bush will improve his numbers among blacks.

9/11 widow Mindy Kleinberg, on the Bush ad: "I have three children who lost a parent on that day, and so I understand the pain that Ashley felt. And I would have given anything for my kids to feel that feeling of safety that she had. But what she got was a hug, and what we really needed to feel safer were answers and real reforms. ... I think that this administration is very good as evoking a feeling, whether it's safety or sadness or fear. But when it comes to real information, when it comes to facts, they've given us stonewalling and foot dragging, and you know, that's not going to make us safe."

So that's how Democrats will respond to 13-year-old Ashley! Get a 9/11 widow to say that Ashley should have held out for "real reforms" instead of a hug from the president. (eye roll)

Both sides have mobilized "massive door-to-door drives" and ground operations that combine grassroots politics and technology. While a senior BC04 official had once noted that Dems are much better at registering and mobilizing supporters, a Kerry strategist warns that a Dem turnout operation will probably not add more than 1.5 percentage points to Kerry's vote (10/20).

That quote was odd and it was unclear which paper or television show that comment came from.

[Posted 10/20 03:15 PM]