Kerry Spot    [ jim geraghty reporting ]
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At this moment, a tight electoral finish is still plausible — and thus, both campaigns are focusing on some awfully small states — hoping that Iowa's seven, or New Hampshire's four electoral votes make the difference and put them over the top.

But at this moment, Kerry's path to 270 could get fouled up if he doesn't hold onto the smallest prize in the 2004 election.

Recent polls indicate that President Bush could be close to winning a slim majority in Maine's Second Congressional District. Maine is one of only two states that split their electoral votes, based on the results statewide and in each congressional district. If Bush were to pull ahead in that district, he would be awarded one electoral vote.

According to CNN, the current polls are consistent with last year's results. Gore won 49 percent of the statewide vote to 44 percent for Bush four years ago. In the southern 1st District, Gore won by a comfortable 27,675 votes. But in the northern Second District, Gore won by only 5,660 votes.

A Survey USA poll actually had Bush winning one of Maine's electoral votes two weeks ago. But their more recent poll had Bush trailing by nine points, when he had been previously leading by nine points. An 18-point shift in two weeks?

A Zogby poll released Sunday had Kerry leading in the 2nd District, 48.2 percent to 44 percent, but the spread there is within the poll's margin of error, making the 2nd District too close to call in the presidential race. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

The Boston Globe noticed:

The president visited Bangor, and his family and the Edwardses all stopped in Lewiston, the two most populous cities in the state's Second Congressional District, where polls suggest Bush could win an electoral vote even if he loses the state to Kerry. Conversely, the same polls indicate Kerry has built a significant lead in the more compact First Congressional District, which includes Portland and the affluent southern coastal towns.

"Lewiston-Auburn is really critical to John Kerry and John Edwards, not only winning Maine but also . . . the nation," Democratic Governor John Baldacci said in introducing Elizabeth Edwards to about 200 Wednesday at the Lewiston-Auburn College of the University of Southern Maine.

In a development out of political bizarre world, Bush appears to have a chance in Maine because of...French-American voters!

The Bush campaign is working the area hard, trying to cut into the Democrats' traditional advantage among the state's large conservative French-Catholic community. Once reliably Democratic, many of Maine's Franco-Americans are now part of the state's dominant voting bloc — independent-minded ticket-splitters.

"The reason Maine is now in play is that Bush is close to having about 30 percent of the Franco vote," said Christian P. Potholm, a Bowdoin College professor, Maine pollster, and student for 25 years of Franco-American voting patterns in the Pine Tree State. "If you reach that, you almost always win."

There are two other factors to keep in mind when contemplating Maine's vote. Independent candidate Ralph Nader in on the Maine ballot and this is one of his strongest states. In 2000, Nader won 5.7 percent of the vote, though he is currently polling around one percent.

The state is also set to consider a referendum to ban bear baiting by hunters who use honey, doughnuts, or other foods to lure the state's black bear population into the open for the kill. Two polls have indicated heavy opposition to the bear-baiting question in the Second Congressional District — home to many hunters, outfitters, and guides. A large turnout among culturally conservative hunters aiming to defeat the bear referendum could help Bush.

As the Reagan ad in 1984 stated, "There is a bear in the woods." And the bear might help give Bush an extra electoral vote.