Kerry Spot    [ jim geraghty reporting ]
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Word from Obi-Wan Kenobi, longtime GOP operative:

What you're hearing about the unreliability of exit polls is accurate. They are focused on urban areas. The exit polls need to be conducted in person, and obviously the media, even with their combined resources, have to pick and choose which polling places to conduct those exit polls. They under-poll rural and suburban areas.

They also do not count early and absentee votes, which traditionally benefit Republicans.

In the 1990s, the CNN exit polls were considered so skewed and so bad that GOP campaign strategists regulary added at least two or three points to the Republican candidate's total.

He also noticed that the earlier garbage polls, with their 59-41 women/men breakdown, were equalized to the more likely proportional turnout, Bush would win several key states like Ohio in a rout.

Before anyone loses their optimism, wait until someone's reputation is on the line in making these calls on the swing states.

I would observe that blowing the call on Florida in 2000 didn't seem to hurt the networks' reputation too much.

I have also heard, on good authority, that one of the highest-ranking campaign folks on the Bush-Cheney campaign has said, "We will win Ohio. We will win Florida. And Pennsylvania is tied." Unfortunately, this person didn't provide numbers.

UPDATE: What my person said is similar to what Shannen Coffin says a White House source said: "Political operations there is very confident and completely dismissive of the early day numbers, citing the skewing of the sample that has been discussed here. Confident that Bush will win OH and FL, that he will roll in WVa (ten points?) and that Mel Martinez will carry Florida. Not someone who is given to bluster."

I wonder if it's the same person.

[Posted 11/02 05:54 PM]