Partisans will briefly switch allegiance this week, with John McCain's supporters rooting for Al Gore in the Iowa caucuses. They hope that a poor showing by Bradley will persuade independents in New Hampshire to vote for McCain as a more viable candidate. But we're likely to learn that Granite State independents' willingness to swing between the parties is greatly exaggerated; most of them have a strong identification with one or the other.. What McCain has to be banking on is that Republicans — in New Hampshire, at least — favor abstract fiscal responsibility over tangible tax cuts.
But George W. Bush is helped by the news that Washington budgeteers — in the course of making ten-year predictions — have found another trillion dollars lying around. This gives Bush a big, fat cushion he can use to smother McCain's claims that the Bush tax cut jeopardizes entitlement programs and debt reduction. The prospect of McCain appealing to conservative GOP voters shrinks along with the size of his net tax cut. (It’s down to a measly $86 billion when he's finished closing "loopholes" and eliminating credits.)
The fact that reporters are now needling McCain over his innocuous comments about his occasional ability to spot homosexuals, and noting that (like all politicians) he routinely recycles old jokes, is evidence that the disappointed boys on the bus are beginning to acknowledge that his challenge will sputter to an end after New Hampshire. But there remains a lingering fondness for McCain that prevents reporters from asking the question that Bill Bradley now gets: Is your campaign now over?
Hillary Clinton complied with Al Sharpton's "Come in to my parlor" request, and shared the Martin Luther King Day program at his Harlem headquarters with a Sharpton colleague — who complained about the Jews he once worked for. Mrs. Clinton lamely explained that she hoped to unite, not divide, during her Senate tenure. For campaign purposes, however, she continues to divide core Democratic supporters, including Jews and affluent white women, who increasingly favor Rudy Giuliani. At this rate, the first Senator Clinton we're likely to see might be Chelsea.
