I returned from the treacherous parking lots and sidewalks of icy New Hampshire to find that it's the Washington's GOP establishment that has lost its footing following John McCain's big win last Tuesday. Initially, George Bush's stunned backers were reassured by his camp's arguments about idiosyncratic New Hampshire voters who love sticking it to the frontrunner. South Carolina, they were told, embraces conservative establishment types, and so their firewall down South could be counted on.
But John Zogby's poll revealing that Bush's 20-point lead in South Carolina had evaporated overnight has left Capitol Hill stunned. "Does he jump another ten points once he's on the cover of the newsweeklies?" wondered a top Senate staffer. At the prospect of a McCain candidacy in the fall, another leadership aide asked, "Have incumbent members of Congress ever not endorsed their party's nominee?"
Conservatives in Washington were further unsettled by Stuart Rothenberg's observation in Roll Call that the Governor remains in pretty good shape because he can look forward to the primaries of his own Texas, and brother Jeb's Florida, on March 14th as a "safety net." Their confidence in "firewalls" and "safety nets" badly shaken, conservatives are looking for a Bush win in South Carolina to end McCain's challenge.
Gov. Bush himself seems to be immune from the panic setting in among his supporters. He is reportedly planning to "spend most of the weekend resting" in Texas.
The Democratic race in New Hampshire did provide some good news for Republicans this week. Bill Bradley's close finish means the bitter race will continue, as he provides more fodder for GOP ads with his continued assault on Al Gore's deceptions.