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6/21/00
6:00 p.m. |
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Given Democrats' recent sweep of Sacramento, and Gore's assiduous courting of the state — he has visited every six weeks for the past seven years — the Vice President should have a double-digit lead in California. And, while he has to be favored to carry the state in November, Bush should be able to best Bob Dole's 38 percent vote in 1996, and an energetic effort by Ralph Nader could prove costly to Gore. When Republicans claim that a Gore "must have" state could be a "might have," maybe they're not just California Dreamin'. |
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Field poll of California
voters, released earlier this week, briefly provided welcome good news
for the Gore campaign. The media hyped the survey, which showed Gore with
an 11 point lead among likely voters, as though it's newsworthy to find
a Democrat ahead in the Golden State. But even this small consolation
was not to last. The day after the Field results were released, a poll
by Public Opinion Strategies found the candidates in a dead heat in California,
with Gore leading Bush by only three points. The latter poll is more in
line with other California surveys. A GOP polling expert explains that
a Republican can expect to see his California numbers about ten points
behind national match-ups, so Bush's average 6 point lead in nationwide
polls would mean a 4 point deficit in California.
