Give the week to Gov. Bush. Any time someone narrowly misses being
hit by a truck, he has to be considered a winner. And, after the
Governor picked himself up and dusted himself off, he headed to New
Hampshire, where he delivered a speech pleasing to conservatives on the
importance of teaching values and permitting religious expression in
schools. While Bush is playing to conservatives-the most important
primary constituency nationwide-John McCain is after another group,
independents, that may help in New Hampshire's open primary but not in
many other contests.
The McCain boomlet in New Hampshire is actually helpful to
frontrunner Bush in the long run because it counters the charge that he
is awaiting a coronation, rather than battling for the nomination. A
real skirmish with Forbes in Iowa, and McCain in New Hampshire, gives
the illusion of a real race, before Gov. Bush breaks away and resumes
his national race where he enjoys the overwhelming advantage of
supportive Governors and their party organizations in states across the
nation (Bush has already-sometimes at the expense of Iowa and New
Hampshire--visited 37 states this campaign season).
On the Democratic side, the pundits enjoyed themselves at the Vice
President's expense, but their tittering over Al Gore's struggle to
become the alpha male wasn't nearly as costly as Naomi Wolf's
well-hidden monthly retainer from the Gore campaign. For $15,000 a
month, Wolf was apparently advising Al Gore on how not to be Al Gore, so
he could provide voters with the authenticity they are seeking in a
candidate.
The Wolf-inspired change in wardrobe and the move to Tennessee
don't seem to be working for Gore. A careful reading of the national
polls shows that there is no evidence to support the media's
born-of-boredom assertion that Al Gore has gained some momentum and is
closing on Gov. Bush. Throughout September, Gov. Bush enjoyed a lead of
at least a dozen points in national polls; averaging out 18 polls in
October reveals that he continues to enjoy . . . a 12 point lead. An
October 31st ABC poll of adults (not of registered or likely voters,
typically more favorable to Republicans) shows Gov. Bush still leading
Al Gore by 55 to 39.
After the truck, Bush has eight lives left-and, at this rate, he
may not even need them all.
