Coming up this Wednesday, the Fed’s policy committee will meet, and Fed head Ben Bernanke will host his second public press conference. It is my great hope that Mr. Bernanke will make it clear that 1) QE2 is ending in two weeks, on schedule, and 2) there will be no QE3.
In other words, send a clear signal to financial markets that the central bank is moving away from quantitative easing to quantitative neutral.
Why am I so keen on this? Because I think it will bolster the dollar. And that, in turn, will hold down energy and other commodity prices. And that, in turn, could give us a lower inflation rate in the second half of the year.
Now that would be bullish for economic growth.
What has caused the current economic-growth sputter? Principally, exploding oil, gasoline, food, and other commodity prices from a falling dollar caused by too much money created by the Fed.
Inflation remains the cruelest tax of all. And it has depressed real consumer incomes and slowed down business. If King Dollar recovers, the sputter could turn into real growth. And bullish stocks will pick this up quickly.
In other words, the second half outlook hinges on the dollar. Hopefully the Bernanke Fed will stand behind the greenback. No more money printing.