Contrary to the customary downbeat drumbeat of economic decline, as once again illustrated by David Wessel’s piece in today’s Wall Street Journal (this guy is the paper’s pessimist-in-chief’”when he’s not waging class warfare, he is prayerfully forecasting economic gloom) the most recent numbers actually show a pickup in manufacturing and a bottoming in the housing slump
Simply put, there ain’t gonna be any recession.
Bear Stearns chief U.S. economist, John Ryding, is now predicting 2.75 percent real GDP growth in Q4. I would label that ‘Goldilocks plus.’
And there ain’t no inflation either, as revealed by the recent consumer price reports which showed declining inflation trends.
Bond rates have increased about 30 basis points this month, but the inflation adjusted bond spreads show that it’s a gain in real interest rates that corroborates the better tone in real GDP. Of course, the absolutely phenomenal Goldilocks stock market has been telling us this all along over the past six months.
As economist Arthur Laffer has noted, prosperity-inducing government policies remain in place: low tax rates, steady money, no re-regulation of business, and free trade.
(Speaking of Art, his appearances on CNBC’s Kudlow & Company in recent weeks have all greatly illuminated the interpretation of political and economic information. Many thanks to Mr. Laffer, as well as our many talented guests’”both liberal and conservative’”for their wonderful contributions.)
From the bottom of my heart, I am grateful to everyone who has worked on this show, appeared on this show, and to our viewers for giving us terrific ratings this holiday season and throughout 2006.
I’m in that kind of mood this afternoon, as the end of the year approaches. I am ever grateful. This great country of ours provides so many incredible blessings and so many wonderful opportunities.
It is a miracle.
Truly, the greatest story never told.