May
14, 2003, 9:00 a.m. Iran’s
Path
Stopping
the mullahs in their tracks.
he most reliable
guide to the state of affairs in Iran is the regime itself, and the regime
is clearly terrified at the signs that the Iranian people want liberation,
American-style. A Le Monde correspondent in Tehran, writing in
late April, quoted Iranians who were frustrated when the Marines stopped
at the border, and described the people as eager for "a change of
the regime with the help of the American Marines." A key adviser
to President Mohammed Khatami confessed that "if one admits that
the Iraqis are delighted with Saddam Hussein's end, one must also think
about the possibility that maybe the Iranians would celebrate at the end
of the Islamic Republic as well." Similar evidence about the Iranians'
desire for freedom comes from the Canadian magazine Macleans
in an article expressively entitled "Longing
for America."
For
the past five years many Iranians, and an embarrassingly large number
of foreign diplomats and other observers, convinced themselves that Iran
could accomplish a peaceful transition to democracy by changing the system
from within. But no reforms have been accomplished, the clerical fascists
who sit atop the Islamic Republic still make all the key decisions (and
control the country's considerable wealth, often to their personal benefit),
and the people no longer take reform seriously. In municipal elections
in February, a mere twelve percent of eligible voters showed up at the
polls, in a massive expression of no confidence in the reformists. On
May 7, 153 deputies (out of 290) said the country was in a "critical
situation," because the people had concluded that their votes were
meaningless. And in recent days, more than a dozen deputies have resigned,
only to be indicted by the Islamic tribunals for attempting to sabotage
the system.
As the people's hatred of the regime becomes ever clearer, the leaders
of the dreaded Revolutionary Guards issued a series of warnings to the
people and to members of parliament. Ayatollah Movahedi Kermani, the Supreme
Leader's representative to the Revolutionary Guards, snarled that "The
(Guards) must control the action of the (parliament). They must know if
(the deputies) are with the leader or against him."
Faced with American forces and expanding freedoms in both Iraq and Afghanistan,
the mullahs have decided to go all-out to drive the United States out
of Iraq, and convert that country into an Islamic Republic. To that end,
no less than four Arabic-language radio stations have been set up, hundreds
of Iranian-trained mullahs have been sent into Iraq's major mosques, and
thousands of terrorists are operating under the command of top Iranian
officers, including Sartip Pasdar Jafari, the commander of the Revolutionary
Guards ground forces and its intelligence organization. Other top RG officers
include Hamid Taqavi, from the intelligence headquarters in Qom, and Sartip
Pasdar Seifollahi, the commander of the Nasr headquarters in Tehran. They
have set up operational centers in Basra, Nassiriyah, Najaf, Khanaqin,
al-Kut, and al-Amarah. They are all using cover names, and are dressed
as Arabs and Kurds. All are well armed with machine guns, RPGs, and light
weapons. They aim to turn Iraq into a "second Lebanon," hoping
to repeat the rout of American forces in the 1980s after a series of terrorist
attacks, kidnappings, and mass demonstrations.
Two early operations give a sense of Iran's priorities in Iraq —
the domination of the majority Shiite community. The assassination of
Imam Khoei
at Najaf in the late stages of the war was a clear signal to Iraqi religious
leaders who preached the traditional Shiite doctrine that holy men should
stay out of politics, and mosque and state should be separate. Khoei was
interviewed by Iranian radio an hour before he was killed, in order to
be sure the assassins knew where he was. And then thugs from Iran's Badr
Corps — the armed wing of the Supreme Islamic Revolutionary Council
for Iraq whose leader, Ayatollah Hakim, just returned from 20 years in
Tehran — surrounded the house of Ayatollah Sistani in Najaf. Sistani
is from the same mold as Khoei.
Meanwhile, back in Iran, the repression continues. All draft deferments
have been cancelled, in order to bring more young men under military discipline.
The judiciary has created a special group to crack down on Internet use
and shut down local sites. According to the student-news service, ISNA,
special attention is being paid to Internet sites that make fun of religious
and political leaders, and already one blogger in Tehran has been arrested.
Reporters Without Frontiers has good reason to call Supreme Leader Ali
Khamenei the leading violator of press freedom in the world.
Many Iran watchers believe that it is only a matter of time before the
Iranian people rise up against their oppressors, and it could well begin
on July 9, the date set by the student movement for a national strike
against the regime. For the first time, the students have appealed to
the Iranian diaspora for help, especially the very wealthy Iranian-American
community in southern California.
One might think that all this would encourage the American government
to find ways to support the impending democratic revolution in Iran, and
there are many modest steps that would produce great gains for the anti-regime
forces. There are several excellent radio and TV stations in California
that broadcast directly into Iran. Due to limited resources, they are
only on the air for a few hours a day. The Bush administration could accomplish
a lot with a small investment in these broadcasters, who have many millions
of Iranian listeners and viewers, and whose words carry an authority and
an intimacy that no official U.S. broadcaster can hope to match. But so
far, the administration has not done anything to support them.
Even without any active support, the administration could do a lot simply
by vigorously enunciating our Iran policy as the president — six
times since September 11 — has done. Last week, in his South Carolina
speech, he remarked that "in the face of harsh repression, Iranians
are courageously speaking out for democracy and the rule of law and human
rights. And the United States strongly supports their aspirations for
freedom." Yet a few weeks earlier, Deputy Secretary of State Richard
Armitage proclaimed Iran "a democracy," and the debate over
the final wording of the long-delayed NSPD on Iran is still ongoing. It
is past time for the president to insist that Condoleezza Rice's National
Security Council produce a clear Iran policy that enables us to help the
cause of freedom in Iran, and thereby strike a major blow against terrorism
(the State Department's annual report on state sponsors of terror once
again put Iran at the top of the list). To his great credit, Kansas Senator
Sam Brownback (R.) is introducing legislation putting Congress on record
in support of the liberation of Iran.
In so doing, the administration should be careful not to take sides. There
are many Iranian political groups, ranging from constitutional monarchists
to republicans. Some are religious, most are not (most Iranians have had
their fill of mullahs for at least a generation). We should have no dog
in this fight; it is up to the Iranian people to decide upon their form
of government and their future leaders. But we most certainly have a compelling
interest in the democratization of Iran. Without it, our enterprise in
Iraq will be constantly threatened, and international terror including
Iranian-guided Palestinian terror) will retain its most ferocious and
lethal supporter. With it, the Middle East will take a giant step toward
freedom.
Finally, looming over the entire issue, is the Iranian crash program to
acquire nuclear weapons. A couple of months ago an Iranian team flew to
China and traveled on the ground to North Korea, where the mullahs offered
Kim Jong-il billions of dollars for nuclear weapons and technology. Shortly
thereafter, top leaders of the Revolutionary Guards were informed by the
National Security Council that Iran would "soon" have nuclear
weapons.
One of the two Middle Eastern pillars of the Axis of Evil has fallen;
are we prepared to cope with the other?
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he most reliable
guide to the state of affairs in Iran is the regime itself, and the regime
is clearly terrified at the signs that the Iranian people want liberation,
American-style. A Le Monde correspondent in Tehran, writing in
late April, quoted Iranians who were frustrated when the Marines stopped
at the border, and described the people as eager for "a change of
the regime with the help of the American Marines." A key adviser
to President Mohammed Khatami confessed that "if one admits that
the Iraqis are delighted with Saddam Hussein's end, one must also think
about the possibility that maybe the Iranians would celebrate at the end
of the Islamic Republic as well." Similar evidence about the Iranians'
desire for freedom comes from the Canadian magazine 
