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 hen
you testify to Congress in measured tones, what you say doesn't
always get the attention it deserves.
That's the
lesson from Robert Walpole's March 11th testimony before a Senate
subcommittee. Walpole is the National Intelligence Officer for Strategic
and Nuclear Programs for the CIA and was there to update senators
on the National Intelligence Estimate.
He calmly delivered
the following blockbuster: "The Intelligence Community judged
in the mid-1990s that North Korea had produced one, possibly two,
nuclear weapons."
That means
North Korea may already be a nuclear-weapon state. This is news.
Just last Sunday,
the Washington Post reported, "North Korea may have
enough fissile material for one or two nuclear weapons, U.S. analysts
say."
But this conventional
wisdom appears to be outdated.
Also according
to Walpole, the North Korean "multiple-stage Taepo Dong-2,
which is capable of reaching the United States with a nuclear-weapon-sized
payload, may be ready for flight testing."
Feeling secure
yet?
The conventional
wisdom also previously held that Iran could probably achieve an
ICBM capability within 15 years.
Walpole reports,
"All agencies agree that Iran could attempt to launch an ICBM
about mid-decade." That could, then, be in three or five years
so. (He went on to say, "[the agencies] believe Iran is likely
to take until the last half of the decade to do so. One agency further
judges that Iran is unlikely to achieve a successful test
of an ICBM before 2015.")
It is clear
that Iran has been overachieving when it comes to nuclear and ballistic-missile
technology.
Walpole again:
"The Intelligence Community judges that Iran does not yet have
a nuclear weapon. Most agencies assess that Tehran could have one
by the end of the decade, although one agency judges it will take
longer. All agree that Iran could reduce this time frame by several
years with foreign assistance."
Foreign assistance
is the great friend of rogues generally.
If it bought
the right engines, according to Walpole, Iraq "could
test an ICBM within about five years of the acquisition."
And if it slipped
out from various U.N. prohibitions, "Iraq would be likely
to test an ICBM probably masked as an SLV [space launch vehicle]
before 2015, possibly before 2010 with significant foreign assistance."
The bottom
line, according to Walpole: "All this leads us to assess that
the probability that a missile with a weapon of mass destruction
will be used against U.S. forces or interests is higher today
than during most of the Cold War, and it will continue to grow as
the capabilities of potential adversaries mature."
It is worth
noting that all this was occurring before the Bush administration
pursued missile defense and thought about designing a low-yield
nuke to deter rogues from developing and using weapons of mass destruction.
So, the administration's
critics have it backwards — Bush isn't creating a threatening
international environment, he's reacting to one.
Unless the
New York Times and others will now consider North Korea just
another mature, responsible country — since, after all, it
may already have joined the nuclear "club."
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