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 here's
Nightline when you need it?
MIT professor
Ted Postol is one of the media's favorite
commentators
on missile defense, because — surprise, surprise — he doesn't think
it will work. Postol's theory is that decoys launched with incoming
warheads will inevitably overwhelm any defensive system.
Postol believes
that the military knows this, but is just ignoring it — in fact,
that it is covering it up.
Postol alleged
that defense contractor TRW and the Pentagon manipulated the results
of a June 1997 test to claim it was a success, when really the interceptor
couldn't distinguish between the decoy and a warhead (because, according
to Postol, no interceptor will ever, in the history of man, be able
to distinguish between the two).
Postol accused
TRW and the Pentagon of a "fraud and cover-up," and the
charges were reliably picked up by the New York Times and
most other mainstream media outlets.
Well, now the
FBI has looked into, and dismissed, Postol's allegations of criminal
wrongdoing. Postol's response? To allege an FBI cover-up.
"I am
amazed the FBI would have done this without checking with the [General
Accounting Office, which is also conducting a review]," Postol
said. "It looks to me that the FBI was simply not interested
in doing anything except covering it's back."
Quick, someone
call Nightline — Ted Postol can't distinguish between reality
and his feverish fantasies!
Decoys, of
course, are a real issue for a defensive system. But it isn't necessarily
a simple matter — especially for a rogue state — to pack decoys
into an ICBM. They would add weight, and therefore would diminish
range and accuracy.
And there's
no reason to believe as a theological matter — as Postol does —
that a defense will never be able to identify decoys. Surely, defensive
technology and decoy tactics will both get increasingly sophisticated,
in the game of nip-and-tuck that has characterized the race between
defensive and offensive weapons throughout human history.
So, Postol's
argument doesn't make missile defense a "fraud," but this
latest episode should be a solid step toward establishing him as
one.
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