June
6, 2003, 7:00 a.m.
Desert Dogs that Didn’t Bark
The most important
things that didn’t happen at the Bush summits.
ournalists are trained to report what happened, but sometimes what's most
significant is what does not occur, what Sherlock Holmes called "the
dog that didn't bark." Consider some of the quiet canines from this
week's summit meetings in the Middle East:
No Arafat:
Not having Arafat either at the meeting between President Bush and the Arab
leaders in Egypt or at the meeting with the Israeli and Palestinian Authority
Prime Minister in Jordan was obviously historic. Let's be clear: Arafat
doesn't just condone terrorism. He doesn't just encourage terrorism. He
is himself a terrorist master starting his fifth decade in the business.
The post-9/11 Bush Doctrine dictates that Americans don't negotiate with
terrorists. What's more, friends don't let friends negotiate with terrorists
— which is why Israel is no longer being asked to deal with him. Arafat
isn't gone, but his exclusion this week suggests that he may be going —
a necessary, if insufficient, condition for peace.
No Quartet: The "roadmap" to peace was supposed to be overseen
by "the Quartet": the U.S. along with the U.N., the European Union,
and Russia. Bush pointedly did not invite U.N., EU, and Russian envoys,
none of whom can be trusted by the Israelis, and all of whom lost credibility
with Bush in the run-up to Operation Iraqi Freedom.
No Saddam Hussein: The toppling of the terrorist-sponsoring Baathist
Butcher of Baghdad by a strong and determined America has profoundly altered
the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. With Saddam either dead or
in hiding, the chances of producing real progress toward Arab-Israeli peace
are enhanced.
No Syria, no Lebanon: Bashar Assad, the Baathist Butcher of Damascus,
boycotted the Egypt meeting, proving he still doesn't grasp the geo-political
changes taking place — despite Colin Powell's most recent visit with
him. No Lebanese leader showed up either. That's because Lebanon is an occupied
country — an issue that the U.N., the EU, the Russians, and other members
of the "international community" would address if they were serious
about opposing illegal occupations.
No Sharon in Egypt: Israel's Arab neighbors — even those at
peace with Israel — refused to break bread with Israel's prime minister.
That's not an encouraging sign, especially considering this fact: There
would be no conflict today over the West Bank and Gaza were it not for those
Arab neighbors.
In 1967, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and other Arab nations launched a war against
Israel, a war explicitly intended to wipe Israel off the face of the Earth
and drive the Jews into the sea. That war was launched from the Sinai Peninsula
and the Gaza Strip (both then Egyptian possessions) and the West Bank (then
in Jordanian hands). Because the attempt to annihilate Israel failed, Israel
came into possession of Sinai, Gaza, and the West Bank. Israel has since
returned the Sinai — in exchange for a very cold and unsatisfying peace
with Egypt.
No tackling of tough issues by Arab rulers in Egypt: The Arab leaders
who met in Sharm El Sheik publicly embraced Bush's push toward peace, but
they did little to further it. They said they'd stop funding terrorism,
but does that mean that Saudi authorities will crack down on billionaire
sheiks who write checks to Hamas? Doubtful. It also would help if they'd
stop returning Arafat's phone calls and stop sending money to him —
funds that may find their way to terrorists. Instead, they continue to treat
Arafat as the Palestinian president-for-life. And there was no pledge of
real reform for Egypt and Saudi Arabia — no commitment to open economies,
democratic institutions or even an end to the anti-American, anti-Christian,
anti-Zionist, anti-Semitic hate speech that continues to flow from government-sanctioned
sources.
No waffling on terrorism by Abbas in Jordan: At the Aqaba summit,
Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas denounced terrorism.
But denouncing terrorism is easy for Arab leaders when they privately define
terrorism as Israelis bulldozing bomb factories rather than suicide-bombers
blowing up school buses. Abbas went further. He renounced "terrorism
against the Israelis wherever they might be." Now, the question is:
Will he be brave and bold enough to actually disarm and arrest the terrorists
who operate with Arafat's blessing throughout the West Bank and Gaza?
If Abbas makes a serious effort, Sharon will reward him with further concessions.
(Sharon already has released scores of prisoners, including mass murderers
of Israelis and, by the way, Americans; he has promised to dismantle "illegal
outposts" in the West Bank; and he is allowing Palestinian workers
to enter Israel.) If Abbas does not make a serious effort, however, if he
instead settles for a hudna, Arabic for a temporary ceasefire (which
would give the terrorists time to regroup, recruit, retrain, and rearm),
that will lead to a dead end on the roadmap.
No real recognition of Israel: Abbas has not yet been willing to
recognize Israel as a Jewish state. His plan, apparently, is to insist on
the "right of return" of Palestinian Arabs not just to a new Palestinian
state but also to Israel proper. That would make Israeli Jews a minority
in their own country — effectively turning the Jewish state into the
Arab-Islamic Republic of Israel.
By contrast, Sharon has taken a huge step by saying he is willing to support
the creation of a new Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza. That
state actually would be the second Palestinian state. The country now called
Jordan occupies 75 percent of the territory formerly known as the Palestinian
Mandate, and a majority of its population is Palestinian Arab. (Most of
the rest are Bedouins, a formerly nomadic people found just about everywhere
in the region, including in Israel.) The king of Jordan is a Hashemite,
which means he descends from the royal family of Mecca. His family was thrown
out of Arabia by the House of Saud — otherwise the region's leading
oil producer might be called not Saudi Arabia but Hashemite Arabia. The
Hashemites were installed in East Palestine by the British when they were
still running the show. East Palestine was then called Trans-Jordan. They
shortened the name after 1948, when they came into possession of the land
on the West Bank of the Jordan River.
No terrorist attacks: Lastly, it's significant that no suicide-bomber
successfully struck during the meetings. What does that tell us? It's hard
to say. (We don't know how many may have tried and failed.) Similarly, it's
hard to know what to make of the fact that there were no major terrorist
attacks against the U.S. during the Battle of Iraq, nor were there any major
attacks against the U.S. over the Memorial Day weekend — despite threats
of both. In fact, there have been no al Qaeda attacks on American soil since
9/11. None of that should make us complacent. But the absence of successful
terrorist attacks is a reason for optimism, a dog that hasn't barked —
or bitten.
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ournalists are trained to report what happened, but sometimes what's most
significant is what does not occur, what Sherlock Holmes called "the
dog that didn't bark." Consider some of the quiet canines from this
week's summit meetings in the Middle East:
