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September
3, 2002 9:00 a.m.
Senate
Watch
What
to look for this fall.
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here are 34
Senate races this fall, but only a dozen of them bear watching. With the
Democrats holding a one-seat majority, however, a single race can make
all the difference.
Republicans are defending
more seats than Democrats this year, and given the tendency for off-year
elections to favor the party not in the White House, the Democrats once
appeared well positioned to pick up a seat or two. That may yet happen,
though it's far from clear it will. The GOP may yet be declaring itself
a surprise winner on election night.
Herewith, an update
of the 12 hottest races:
COLORADO
The Matchup: Sen. Wayne Allard (R.) vs. lawyer Tom Strickland
(D.)
Latest Poll: Allard leading, 42 percent to 34 percent, by Rocky Mountain
News
The Line: This is a rematch from six years ago, when Allard beat Strickland
by 5 points. Allard is ahead right now, and should win barring a major
mistake. Yet his support is soft, giving the Democrats some reason for
hope.
GEORGIA
The Matchup: Sen. Max Cleland (D.) vs. Rep. Saxby Chambliss
(R.)
Latest Poll: None since August 20 primary
The Line: Chambliss prevailed in the primary, but faces an uphill battle
against Cleland. He'll argue that Cleland's voting record is way to the
left of the ordinary Georgian, and he'll be correct. But Cleland, who
was severely crippled in Vietnam, sits atop a deep well of sympathy. Unseating
him would be a major upset.
IOWA
The Matchup: Rep. Greg Ganske (R.) vs. Tom Harkin (D.)
Latest Poll: Harkin leading, 50 percent to 41 percent, by Des Moines
Register
The Line: Harkin never seems to win his elections by much — a source
of endless hope for the GOP — yet he somehow always manages to win.
Ganske will give Harkin a race, but he may not be conservative enough
to inspire the GOP base in a state that has trended Democrat in recent
elections.
MINNESOTA
The Matchup: Former St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman (R.) vs. Sen. Paul
Wellstone
Latest Poll: Coleman leading, 46 percent to 42 percent, by National Republican
Senatorial Committee
The Line: Wellstone is one of the Democrats' weaker incumbents, but so
far Coleman has not excited Minnesota voters the way Republicans once
had hoped. The race remains close, and Coleman won't let anyone forget
that Wellstone, by running this year, is breaking his pledge to serve
no more than two terms. Wellstone is a left-wing idealist, but he is difficult
to dislike. Expect a photo finish.
MISSOURI
The Matchup: Sen. Jean Carnahan (D.) vs. former Rep. Jim Talent
(R.)
Latest Poll: Talent leading, 47 percent to 46 percent, by St. Louis
Post-Dispatch
The Line: Talent is a defeated gubernatorial candidate who remains one
of the brightest stars on the GOP bench — if only he can take his
political career to the next level. Carnahan is the sympathetic widow
of a former governor. This will be a very tough race for the Republican,
but he has a fighting chance. Of all the potential GOP pickups in 2002,
this one probably holds the most interest for conservatives.
NEW
HAMPSHIRE
The Matchup: Gov. Jeanne Shaheen vs. TBD
Latest Poll: n/a
The Line: Everything's up in the air until September 10, when Sen. Bob
Smith and Rep. John Sununu face off in the controversial GOP primary.
Sununu is widely viewed as the stronger candidate in the general election,
but Smith has a devoted conservative following. The primary is too close
to call, and the November election stands to be a nail-biter as well.
NEW
JERSEY
The Matchup: Businessman Douglas Forrester (R.) vs. Sen. Robert
Torricelli (D.)
Latest Poll: Tied at 40 percent, by Democratic firm Benson Strategies
The Line: This probably isn't the best year to be running for the Senate
as a businessman, but it also isn't the best year to be running as Torricelli,
whose ethical lapses may finally catch up with him. Recent polls have
invigorated Republicans, who believe they have a reasonable chance to
steal a seat from the Democrats.
NORTH
CAROLINA
The Matchup: Former Clinton White House chief of staff Erskine Bowles
(D.) vs. Elizabeth Dole (R.)
Latest Poll: Dole leading, 61 percent to 29 percent, by Republican firm
Voter/Consumer Research
The Line: Dole is one of the most famous female politicians in the country,
but she's never run for public office except for an uninspired and short-lived
presidential bid. Her campaign has succeeded so far by avoiding mistakes,
but the generally right-leaning voters of North Carolina have shown a
tendency in recent years to cast ballots for Democrats. This race will
tighten, but it remains Dole's to lose.
OREGON
The Matchup: Sen. Gordon Smith vs. Secretary of State Bill Bradbury
Latest Poll: Smith leading, 45 percent to 41 percent, by Democratic Senatorial
Campaign Committee
The Line: This could be the sleeper race of the year for Democrats —
they're hoping for another surprise in the Northwest, repeating the razor-thin,
upset victory over GOP Sen. Slade Gorton of Washington two years ago.
Smith is the favorite, but his reelection numbers have not been impressive.
Definitely worth watching.
SOUTH
DAKOTA
The Matchup: Sen. Tim Johnson (D.) vs. Rep. John Thune (R.)
Latest Poll: Thune leading, 47 percent to 45 percent, by Republican firm
Anderson Group
The Line: This one is a dead heat, and will be widely interpreted as a
proxy war between the White House and Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle.
Thune represents the GOP's best chance for a pickup this year, and was
once considered a (very) slight favorite. It will remain close to the
end, and Thune will have to avoid missteps, such as his recent refusal
to say whether he would vote for Daschle or Trent Lott as majority leader.
TENNESSEE
The Matchup: Former Gov. Lamar Alexander (R.) vs. Rep. Bob Clement
(D.)
Latest Poll: Alexander leading, 53 percent to 39 percent, by Republican
firm Ayres, McHenry, and Associates
The Line: A hard-fought primary election against Rep. Ed Bryant does not
appear to have hurt Alexander — he is favored to defeat Clement in
this open-seat election.
TEXAS
The Matchup: Attorney General John Cornyn (R.) vs. Former Dallas
Mayor Ron Kirk (D.)
Latest Poll: Tied at 46 percent, by Democratic firm Montgomery & Associates
The Line: Republicans aren't supposed to lose in Texas, but several polls
have shown Kirk leading Cornyn. Republicans plausibly say this is because
Kirk is better known throughout the state, and that party loyalists will
fall in line as the campaign intensifies. Kirk has raised much of his
money outside the state, from Democrats who would like to see an African
American elected to the Senate. A Kirk victory, should it happen, would
be the story of the election — interpreted by the media as a rebuke
of Bush, plus hailed as a milestone in racial progress and probably guaranteeing
Democratic retention of the Senate.
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