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Lt. Gov. Dick Posthumus may need to pull his own rabbit from a hat on November 5. Recent surveys show the Republican trailing his Democratic opponent, attorney general Jennifer Granholm, by about a dozen points. Many in the GOP are confident that Posthumus will inch closer, especially because some of Granholm's strength comes from areas outside metropolitan Detroit that are normally GOP territory. "There is no way a pro-choice, gun-control-supporting woman is going to win outstate," says Rusty Hills, the GOP's state party chairman. "These votes will come back to us." Granholm is the candidate the Republicans least wanted to face in the general election. She's attractive, a moderate within her party, and a proven statewide candidate. In the Democratic primary, she soundly beat both Blanchard and Rep. David Bonior. If she had not been born in British Columbia, she's the sort of pol that kingmakers in the national Democratic party would keep their eye on. This is an important election, too, for John Engler. Two years ago, he set three goals for himself: Help George W. Bush win the Michigan primary, help the Republican presidential nominee carry Michigan in the general election, and help Republican Sen. Spencer Abraham win reelection. In each of these races, Engler came out on the wrong side: John McCain beat Bush, Al Gore won the state in November, and Debbie Stabenow unseated Abraham. Engler's final important political goal is to leave the governorship to his hand-picked successor — and that means helping deliver a victory for Posthumus. The odds are long. Not only does Granholm appear to be a viable candidate in a Democrat-leaning state, but this will be the first off-year election in which UAW members have a paid holiday. Republicans have said this gave Democrats a real lift two years ago, and it might matter even more during a lower-turnout cycle. Yet Granholm has made a couple of key mistakes along the campaign trail. She recently discussed the need to "tweak" Proposal A, a measure that keeps property taxes from steep hikes. This was a real problem before Engler fixed it. The Michigan Education Association would like nothing better than to get its hands on extra money through such "tweaking." In July, Granholm made what may be an even worse error in judgment: She declared her support for slave reparations. Her comments came during a debate with Blanchard and Bonior (who also said they favor reparations). If Posthumus is smart, he'll make hay of her statement. Putting her on the spot would split her base between sensible Democrats who believe slave reparations are a crock and black activists who will stay home on election day if rescinds her promise. It's a no lose proposition — but only if Posthumus applies pressure through aggressive television advertising. Turning the governor's race into a referendum on reparations can only help Posthumus and only hurt Granholm. At the very least, Democrats who pander should be made to pay a political price; either they should really be committed to the idea of reparations and actively try to make them a reality, or they should quit trying to take political advantage of the grievances of a racial minority. By challenging Granholm
on this subject, Posthumus can boost his |
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ichigan Republicans
are banking on another miracle. Twelve years ago, their gubernatorial
candidate was behind in the polls. Badly. On the Sunday before the election,
the Detroit News showed him trailing Gov. Jim Blanchard, 54 percent
to 40 percent. It looked like John Engler was going to get blown away.
But that poll was wrong — phenomenally wrong. Engler won in a squeaker,
50 percent to 49 percent. Only 17,000 votes separated the two candidates.
That copy of the Detroit News is still hanging in Gov. Engler's
office, three elections later. 
