The Reid bill is really tottering now. “If this thing falls apart, you can look back to today as the tipping point,” says a Republican aide in the Senate, echoing what Lamar Alexander notes in the Costa post below. First, there was last night’s CNN poll showing 61 percent opposition. Then, there was the devastating CMS report today. “Nobody went to the floor that I could see to defend it on the Democratic side,” says the aide. The back-drop for all this is the non-deal that Reid hyped as a break-through earlier this week, only to have it unravel almost immediately. Even Bill Nelson says the Medicare buy-in is basically a “non-starter.” “You’re starting to see other Democrats nibbling around the edges,” the aide says. He predicts that if one Democrat comes out clearly against the Reid bill, others will follow, in a dynamic like the unexpectedly decisive defeat of the amnesty bill a few years ago. Reid also has to worry about the clock. He needs everything to break exactly right — a CBO score coming in on Monday, a score that’s good, no intervening, unexpected drama — to force a final showdown next weekend. If he goes to Christmas break without a bill, it gets much harder to pick up the pieces in January. Since the Senate debate began, the bill has only gotten more unpopular. It’s all still in flux obviously, but we just might be watching the bill fall apart before our eyes.