Quinnipiac’s latest poll in Florida’s Senate race . . . looks a lot like the previous ones:
Florida Gov. Charlie Crist leads the three-way race for the U.S. Senate seat with 37 percent, followed by 32 percent for Republican Marco Rubio and 17 percent for Jeff Greene, the leading candidate for the Democratic nomination, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. If U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek wins the Democratic primary, Crist’s lead would be 39 percent to 33 percent for Rubio and 13 percent for Meek.
Raise your hand if you foresaw a Democrat getting 13 percent in a three-way race for Senate in Florida.
If Greene is the Democratic nominee, one factor working for Rubio is that billionaire Greene and Charlie Crist will be competing for the same voters, and Greene will probably finance millions upon millions of negative ads hammering Crist. One factor working against Rubio in that scenario is that Greene has enough money to run millions in negative ads hammering anybody, and if the race appeared to be coming down to Rubio and Greene . . . well, Jon Corzine’s career shows you how far a personal fortune spent on negative ads can take you. On the other hand, “real-estate mogul who made beaucoup bucks on the housing collapse and brought Heidi Fleiss to Passover” might seem just too weird, even for Florida.
A fan of Rubio offered some arguments to me, noting that over the past three months, Crist has had an enormous earned media advantage but that has so far failed to change the dynamics in the Senate race. Indeed, Rubio stopped advertising when he “won” the primary and is stockpiling his resources for a big autumn push, so trailing by a few points is not a terrible place to be.
This fan of Rubio points to Quinnipiac’s observation that if the Democrat gets into the mid to high 20’s, Crist’s chances of winning decrease substantially. Crist is also on the wrong side of public opinion on Obamacare . . . at least for today.