The early vote seems to be trending Republican in many places. What about California? In Politico
, Molly Ball writes:
California provides an illustrative example of the complexities of interpreting early returns. According to data gathered by the Atlas Project, a private Democratic consulting firm, 43 percent of California early voters have been Democrats, while 39 percent have been Republicans. Considering the Democrats’ current 44-31 registration advantage in the state, the GOP appears to be outpacing its share of the electorate, while Democrats appear to be staying home. Then again, in the 2006 early vote — a great year for Democratic candidates — each party drew 41 percent, a performance that was below Democratic registration and well above the Republican share.
It’s important to add a bit more context here. The last midterm was indeed good for Democrats nationwide –- but here in California, Arnold Schwarzenegger won 56 percent of the vote
. True, downballot Republican candidates did not fare nearly as well, but Schwarzenegger had given them little aid. Whitman has been much more generous
to the party and her running mates.