The Election is Tomorrow
Ted Strickland has only a one-in-four chance of winning the election, according to Nate Silver. This is an increase from before, given that two new polls yesterday showed Strickland between 1 and 2 points behind Kasich. This is not good news for the GOP.
On the bright side for Kasich, a trio of Democrats–Biden, Obama and Clinton–have all come to Ohio to support Strickland. None has drawn enthusiasm. Third Base Politics has photographic evidence of Clinton’s painfully small rally, Obama’s rally was so tepid that it turned into a mocking Drudge headline. Biden has Kasich praying for his return, given his advanced case of foot-in-mouth disease.
Kasich is fighting back. He has a massive rally with John Boehner and Rob Portman (the last of the election) today, played to a packed house yesterday, has Chris Christie on his side, and is going all-out with the rhetorical fire.
Politifact looks at Kasich’s claims that he balanced the budget and was responsible for record job growth, and finds the first claim true, and the second claim unverifiable. Either way, Democrats are in a jam trying to convince the unemployed that they’re not the responsible party, and that the GOP is unmitigated evil.
Doomed Democrat Lee Fisher should try to use his connections to Matthew Morrison to land a cameo on Glee as the new political science teacher at McKinley High, because on Tuesday night, his only supporters will be fictional.
Nate Silver is out with an epic roster of predictions. If Gallup is any guide, the Democrats are in serious trouble, so I’ll throw them in with a few notes.
OH-1: Silver says Republican Steve Chabot by 10. I’ll buy it.
OH-6: Silver has Republican Bill Johnson leading Charlie Wilson by a fraction of a percent. Given what I know about the Johnson campaign’s strategy, this would be an extreme underperformance. Johnson has, by-and-large, run a stealth campaign, so most voters will probably check the box for him out of instinct due to his Republican status. Still, the fact that he’s favored is very good news for the GOP.
OH-13: Silver says Democrat Betty Sutton by 16 points. Plausible, but unlikely, as the Ganley campaign has done microtargeting and knows how to pump their voters for all they’re worth. Ganley is still behind, but if he loses, it’ll be with a respectable margin.
OH-15: Silver says Republican Steve Stivers by 9. Again, perfectly plausible, given what a lousy candidate Mary Jo Kilroy was.
OH-16: Silver says Republican Jim Renacci by 5, which is excessively optimistic for my money. This race has tightened in recent days, so a margin of only a few points for Renacci seems more likely. Given how much Democrat John Boccieri has been getting in national support, look for some serious dirt on the ground in this election.
OH-18: Silver has Democrat Zack Space up by 3. I’m going to go out on a limb and say this baffles me. All the evidence from recent days shows Space in deep trouble, possibly unstoppable trouble. I say Republican Bob Gibbs by one or two points, which could break the dam of Democratic support.