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In today’s article about the ubiquitous “unexpectedly” adverb in economic reports, I note that President Obama likes to talk about how many consecutive months the American economy has seen private-sector job growth.
What Obama says is technically true — I suppose Vice President Biden would say “literally” — but increasing the number of private-sector jobs doesn’t necessarily bring down the unemployment rate. The single biggest factor is that the size of the labor pool normally grows from month to month, and while economists disagree on precisely how many jobs need to be added each month just to keep pace with the additional workers, it generally ranges from 100,000 per month (AP) to 100,000 to 125,000 (Heritage Foundation) to about 130,000 (New York Times). Some say a “sustained recovery” requires 250,000 jobs per month.
For perspective, the U.S. economy lost 8.8 million jobs in this recession.
All figures are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
| July 2011 | 154,000 (preliminary) |
| June 2011 | 80,000 (preliminary) |
| May 2011 | 99,000 |
| April 2011 | 241,000 |
| March 2011 | 219,000 |
| February 2011 | 261,000 |
| January 2011 | 94,000 |
| December 2010 | 167,000 |
| November 2010 | 128,000 |
| October 2010 | 193,000 |
| September 2010 | 112,000 |
| August 2010 | 143,000 |
| July 2010 | 117,000 |
| June 2010 | 61,000 |
| May 2010 | 51,000 |
| April 2010 | 241,000 |
| March 2010 | 158,000 |
| February 2010 | 62,000 |
| January 2010 | 16,000 |
| December 2009 | -83,000 |
Depending on your measuring stick, during these 19 months of private-sector job creation, the U.S. only “gained ground” in 12 of them (if the threshold is 100,000) or 9 of them (if the threshold is 130,000). At no point has job creation hit the “sustained recovery” threshold.
One last point: In April 2010, Vice President Biden declared, “I’m here to tell you, some time in the next couple of months, we’re going to be creating between 250,000 jobs a month and 500,000 jobs a month.”