NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE www.nationalreview.com PRINT
This is not to say Republicans will pick up 50 House seats in 2012. But if, indeed, we are in a national political environment where a D+5 district like New York’s 9th congressional district is “in play,” then it means we will see a whole lot of vulnerable House Democrats in the coming cycle, even after a year in which one might think that the Republicans had picked all of the “low-hanging fruit” in the nation’s House races.
Courtesy the good folks at the NRCC, a list of the districts comparable to or more favorable than NY-9:
NY-9 PVI = D+5
| DISTRICT | PVI | OLD PVI | DEMOCRAT |
| AR-3 (10) | R+8 | R+7 | OPEN (ROSS) |
| CA-9 (11) | D+1 | D+11 | JOHN GARAMENDI |
| CA-16 (18) | D+2 | D+4 | DENNIS CARDOZA |
| CA-21 (20) | R+4 | D+5 | OPEN (COSTA) |
| CA-24 (23) | D+3 | D+12 | LOIS CAPPS |
| CA-46 (47) | D+3 | D+4 | LORETTA SANCHEZ |
| CO-7 | D+4 | ED PERLMUTTER | |
| CT-4 | D+5 | JIM HIMES | |
| CT-5 | D+2 | OPEN (MURPHY) | |
| GA-2 | D+5 | D+1 | SANFORD BISHOP |
| GA-12 | R+9 | D+1 | JOHN BARROW |
| IA-1 | D+5 | D+5 | BRUCE BRALEY |
| IA-2 | D+3 | D+7 | DAVE LOEBSACK |
| IL-3 | D+5 | D+11 | DAN LIPINSKY |
| IL-12 | D+3 | D+2 | JERRY COSTELLO |
| IN-2 | R+7 | R+2 | OPEN (DONNELLY) |
| KY-3 | D+2 | JOHN YARMUTH | |
| KY-6 | R+9 | BEN CHANDLER | |
| MA-10 | D+5 | BILL KEATING | |
| ME-2 | D+3 | MIKE MICHAUD | |
| MN-1 | R+1 | TIM WALZ | |
| MN-7 | R+5 | COLLIN PETERSON | |
| NC-7 | R+11 | R+5 | MIKE MCINTYRE |
| NC-8 | R+12 | R+2 | LARRY KISSELL |
| NC-11 | R+13 | R+6 | HEATH SHULER |
| NC-13 | R+10 | D+5 | BRAD MILLER |
| NJ-12 | D+5 | RUSH HOLT | |
| NM-1 | D+5 | OPEN (HEINRICH) | |
| NY-1 | EVEN | TIM BISHOP | |
| NY-2 | D+4 | STEVE ISRAEL | |
| NY-23 | R+1 | BILL OWENS | |
| NY-26 | R+6 | KATHY HOCHUL | |
| NY-27 | D+4 | BRIAN HIGGINS | |
| OK-2 | R+14 | R+14 | OPEN (BOREN) |
| OR-4 | D+3 | D+2 | PETER DEFAZIO |
| OR-5 | D+1 | D+1 | KURT SCHRADER |
| PA-4 | R+6 | JASON ALTMIRE | |
| PA-12 | R+1 | MARK CRITZ | |
| PA-17 | R+6 | TIM HOLDEN | |
| TN-5 | D+3 | JIM COOPER | |
| TX-15 | D+1 | D+3 | RUBEN HINOJOSA |
| TX-20 | D+4 | D+8 | CHARLIE GONZALEZ |
| TX-28 | D+3 | EVEN | HENRY CUELLAR |
| UT-2 | R+15 | JIM MATHESON | |
| VA-11 | D+2 | GERRY CONNOLLY | |
| WA-2 | D+3 | RICK LARSEN | |
| WA-9 | D+5 | ADAM SMITH | |
| WV-3 | R+6 | R+6 | NICK RAHALL |
| WA-6 | D+5 | NORM DICKS | |
| OPEN Seats | |||
| IL-8 | D+5 | OPEN | |
| CA-41 | D+3 | OPEN | |
| CA-47 | D+5 | OPEN | |
| TX-34 | D+3 | OPEN |
Think about it, if Republicans win just 10 percent of these seats, they’ve offset the worst-case scenario of the new district lines in Illinois.