Public Policy Polling has completed its latest survey in Wisconsin, looking at the recall election effort against GOP governor Scott Walker, and the results are generally positive for Walker — though his leads are certainly not large enough for supporters to breathe easily yet.
Overall, Walker enjoys 51 percent approval and 48 percent disapproval. The Democrats will hold a primary to detemine their gubernatorial candidate for the recall election; Walker leads Tom Barrett 50 percent to 45 percent; he leads Kathleen Falk 50 percent to 43 percent; he leads Doug La Follette 51 percent to 40 percent; and he leads Kathleen Vinehout 50 percent to 38 percent.
The sample splits 31 percent Democrat, 32 percent Republican, and 37 percent independent or other, and the sample split by gender 54 percent women, 46 percent men.
Obviously, turnout for a special recall election could be quite different from that in a “regular” election. But for what it’s worth the 2010 Election Day exit poll in Wisconsin had a sample split 50–50 by gender and split by party as 37 percent Democrat, 36 percent Republican, 28 percent Independent or other.
The poll surveyed 1,136 likely voters and was conducted April 13–15.