Mitt Romney is lagging behind Barack Obama in the polls — but in a new memo today, Romney pollster Neil Newhouse argues that there are several positive factors being overlooked. First, Romney is behind Obama — but he’s less behind than John McCain was at this period, 2.4 percentage points verse 4.5 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average of polls. Second, Obama’s advertising advantage is huge currently:
According to The Washington Post, since the unofficial start of the general election campaign on April 10 (when Senator Santorum suspended his campaign), President Obama’s campaign has run $51.4 million in paid television advertising, while the Romney campaign has run $22.7 million (after having spent $87 million in winning the GOP primary). Of Obama’s $51.4 million, more than half of it has been in negative advertising.
What has that bought the Democrats? A closer race – Obama has slipped and support for Gov. Romney has increased.
The third point Newhouse makes is that in the most recent trio of polls, Obama and Romney are just two points apart (Obama leads in two of the polls, and Romney in one). Full memo here.