Every predictive model can prove wrong; there’s always the possibility that some factor of the economy, society, or voter expectations or attitudes has changed from past cycles. But for what it’s worth . . .
A model which has foretold the correct result of the Electoral College selections in U.S. Presidential elections since 1980, has predicted a loss for Barack Obama and the Democratic Party.
The forecast was made by two professors at the University of Colorado who used economic data and unemployment figures from each state to predict a Republican win come November.
Political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry’s study predicts 218 electoral votes for President Barack Obama and 320 for Republican Mitt Romney with the Republican candidate winning every seat currently considered to be on the fence.
. . . It also showed that the apparent advantage of holding the White House as a Democratic candidate disappears when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 per cent.
‘Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,’ Professor Bickers said.
The professors’ analysis concluded that Mitt Romney would take home all swing states including Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Colorado.
Some may dismiss that scenario at this point, pointing to the president’s lead in most of the swing states. But in most of those swing states, Obama is polling in the mid-to-high 40s. If indeed, most undecideds break against the incumbent — which doesn’t always happen, but incumbents’ best-case scenario is usually a 50-50 split — then Obama could indeed end up with the short end of the stick in swing state after swing state.
Perhaps the most fundamental question when looking at the election is: If the country endures 45 straight months of 8 percent unemployment or higher, how many voters will go to the polls to affirmatively select four more years of the same leadership?