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Democrats, fresh from securing a series of tax increases during the fiscal-cliff negotiations, now seek additional tax increases as part of negotiations to avert the sequester, which would impose deep cuts in federal spending, largely on defense.
Many Democrats are especially keen to reopen the fight over what is known as “carried interest,” a tax treatment under which certain kinds of income are treated as long-term capital gains, meaning that they are taxed at a lower rate. The United States, like many developed countries, taxes investment profits at a lower rate than salaries, bonuses, and the like, with risk being the general principle of delineation. In addition to reducing the burden of double-taxation on business profits and rewarding those who choose savings over immediate consumption, the United States wants to encourage economic risk-taking and the entrepreneurial activity associated with it, meaning that $100,000 made by taking the risk of investing long-term in a small business is taxed at a lower rate than $100,000 paid as a straight-up salary. This is probably a good thing, and the policy of taxing risk-incurring capital gains at a lower rate than guaranteed salaries has historically enjoyed widespread, bipartisan support. But the policy also creates incentives for investors and financial firms to structure their businesses so that their income takes the form of capital gains rather than regular income, and therein lies the controversy.
The second thing to keep in mind about “carried interest” is that as a fiscal matter — meaning its effect on the deficit — it is a non-issue. Democratic proposals to deprive private-equity and other investment firms of the carried-interest tax benefits available to other kinds of businesses would generate less than $2 billion a year in additional tax revenue, according to government estimates — 0.2 percent of the trillion-dollar deficits we’ve been running under Barack Obama, or about twelve bucks shy of bupkis. Never mind whether it is appropriate (or even legal) to single out a particular industry for an act of political retribution enacted through the tax code. (Democrats seek to do the same to oil and gas firms.) As a matter of balancing the books, the carried-interest controversy amounts to nothing.
There are tax deductions whose elimination would generate more substantial amounts of new tax revenue. For instance, the tax-free treatment of municipal bonds (an arrangement beloved by many Democrats) is estimated to deprive the treasury of some $30 billion a year, while the deductibility of state and local taxes hoovers about $50 billion a year out of Washington’s coffers. The two combined cost the treasury more than 40 times what the carried-interest treatment for private equity does. Democrats are a great deal less excited about those. Why?
For Democrats in the age of Obama, tax increases aren’t really about feeding Leviathan. They are about punishing people who make their money and live their lives in ways that Democrats do not approve of. There is deeply embedded in their souls a puritanical streak that recoils at the thought of Mitt Romney’s car elevator. Some people in private equity make a great deal of money, and some lose a great deal of money. Your average guy parking his money in tax-free munis is well-off, too — thus making the tradeoff between returns and taxes desirable — but, unlike the private-equity firm, he is entirely passive. But he is putting money into government, while private equity puts money into building companies seeking profit, and so those investors must be punished.
There is very little in the way of persuasive argument for treating the startup worker’s sweat equity differently from the private-equity worker’s sweat equity. You might make a principled argument for treating all income the same (and I am sympathetic to that view), whether it is from salary or investments, or you might make a principled argument for treating sweat equity differently from money-out-of-pocket investments. But it is difficult to make a principled argument that some kinds of sweat equity should be rewarded and others should be punished, which is precisely what the Democrats are pressing for.
Punishing private-equity investors will do almost nothing to balance the books. It would upset a longstanding model of doing business and would put American investors — from Wall Street houses to teachers’ retirement funds — at a distinct disadvantage. That’s a cost-benefit matrix that makes sense only if your bottom line is resentment.
— Kevin D. Williamson is National Review’s roving correspondent.