I was on Meet the Press on Sunday and had a full and frank exchange of views with Bill Richardson and Neera Tanden about immigration. The discussion focused on a disagreement on some factual matters. Hereby an accounting:
- I said that the CBO says that unemployment will be elevated between 2014 and 2020 if the bill passes. From page 9 of the June 2013 CBO report: “CBO estimates that S. 744 would cause the unemployment rate to increase slightly between 2014 and 2020.”
- I said that the CBO says wages would be lower through 2024. From page 6 of the CBO report: “Wages would be lower than current law through 2024.”
- I said the Republican share of the Latino vote in 1988 went down after 1986 amnesty. Indeed, it did, as can be seen here in chart No. 3 — from 37 percent in Reagan’s landslide victory in 1984 to 30 percent in Bush’s landslide victory in 1988.
- Finally, I said that the CBO says that there is no deficit reduction in the first ten years. Here I was wrong. I either should have said that there won’t be much deficit reduction in the first ten years (the latest estimate is that there will be $135 billion and supposedly much more in the second decade), or said that there is no “on budget” deficit reduction (for a discussion of this distinction see this document from Jeff Sessions).